Typhoon Tip

Yuck...wish the Euro woulda gone ahead and just canceled that run - Lamar Hamlin run...

Not replying to any particular post - haven't been through this thread. It's pretty clear this is 4 ..5" of IB snow followed by misty light rain matting for the interior SNE ... Obviously this would mean less snow SW and more N, duh. The NAM may cut a mutilated warm sector across SE zones briefly, but I don't believe the 42 isotherm gets much farther NW ORH -BED when noticing all guidance bends the PP around an inflection point over Boston. W-N of that general vicinity doesn't sector.

I still feel/suggest the first few days of February may host something significant... Whatever materializes has a better canvas of probability for cold profile during its life cycle.

You are mid state mid el NH ... keeping that in mind... I can remember at time back decades ago ... (puff off the pipe -) getting 7" out of an afterthought system like this would have broke news as a true freak event- why... Lol. Now...? 15" not bad haha

I think it was pretty well modeled? I saw numerous 6-8" products in this region - or close enough by... Not like this was unexpected. I also did mention I'd stop by closer to a total late. I have a day job where I'm not sure if IT brother's are watching - i can't loiter in here. Lol. We've sneaked our way to 16" on the season ... Couple more front enders ...even if they end as disappointment to winter enthusiasts, and at least along this region of rt Poop we'll be saving face. Below average but saving face

Looks like I'll finish at 4.5 ... it's still coming down so won't call that, but at just under 4 at the moment with steady blue tinted dusk snow. everything encased. 32.5 events do have their aesthetic advantage - Oh, that's in addition to the 2 last night prior to the switch...

It would affect snow rates and ptype and all that more... That's just dope slap arithmetic argument there ... Yeah, I wonder. Since water is 4 times more proficient at storing heat than the atmosphere above, it doesn't seem varying the water by 5 F would matter ... mm I'm just not sure it matters hugely when 45 is still a relative inferno either way. It's like being 10 miles over the line, and then thinking 5 miles going back puts back over the line. It doesn't ... you still have room to spare - that's why all this shit is bear to grasp sometimes because we human tend to put specific boundaries and value compartments on aspects of nature that really require gradation in every dimension ..as well as threshold conceptualization. And the thresholds themselves are blurred lines with all the noisy crap that goes on. By the way folks, re the CC and models debate... The only model CC would "influence" would be the CFS model, most likely. That model's physicality takes into consideration the environmental CO2, but, it is integrating the 1988 parts per unit volume concentration. I just happen to know that... so I Googled and sure enough...there is a CPC paper out there that specifically focus on the question of C02 being tied to anthropomorphic forcing and it's role on perceived biases in the running of the Climate Forecast System model. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/vddoolpubs/AMS_JWAF_2009_965-973_trendglobalwarmingCFSv1.pdf I can't find any specific aspect like this related to the physics of like the UKMET Euro or GFS..etc... I don't believe those models care. I may be wrong ? Chris might know. I always thought these latter tools were thermodynamic and geo-physical feature feed-backs after the fact of chemistry.

Let me ask you this sequence of questions... How much so are the SSTs above normal, against the 100 year climate foot? If one removed that delta, what would the SSTs be in the same synoptic circumstantial 'marginal air mass' ? I'm asking these not to doubt you ... I'm just being analytic about it - also, supplying some memory. I can recall numerous storms as late as February ...during a much more snowier prolific 1990s decade compared to what we've experience since 2015, where any flow off the ocean was dreadful even to colder storms - let alone marginal atmospheres. So, what you are saying is certainly true, in and of its self... But, I'm not sure it is really possible to parse out CC in the present SSTs as being particularly causal in why you didn't result in 10" of snow - when that seems pretty consistent in any decade going back a long, long while. Particularly in marginal circumstances. Oceanic heat content can vary a few degrees - just based a-priory on education - ... in a marginal atmosphere, either end of that variance will doom an outcome.

I just centered the 12z GFS on 06z Thursday morning and utilizing the Prev button ( TT), I clicked 15 times ... 15 all the way back to the day of the comms outage at NCEP, and the depiction of that interval is for all intents and purposes unchanged across all those clicks. Hard to knock consistency huh - ..usually there's some semblance of modulation over that much time and space....

It may end up like today in terms of PT transitioning and stuff but it will not be because of the same sort of over arcing event.

Made a post… There was immediately negative backlash - by negatively they are not very respectful particularly when I didn’t point anybody out and I was just making assertion about something that was completely unrelated to anything of a personal nature. do the math. I don’t think I’m interpreting anything wrongly if I suspect that people are sensitive given that series of events. cause-and-effect vs cause and affect I suppose.

Well thanks ... I impertinently ( apparently) intimated as much in the other thread - really was intending that as a point of commiseration but it ...uh, didn't seem to set too well with some LOL. Oops. I guess in retrospect it might have seemed like rubbing CC in to a powder-keg group. Yeah I can see that. Little insensitive on my part I guess. But, I don't care - honestly I don't. I'm a realist, probably to a fault when trying to get along in group theory.... wow

You're angry - ...I think an autistic child would gather that at this point. hahaha. My work here is complete

So who are you directing this toward - or is this just for the general audience. Who the f thinks CC is driving the forecast models. The advents are happening in a warmer environment. That's my contribution - just for the record, there is no connection to performance of machinery/guidance, at least not implied in making any statement I have made. So hopefully your statement is/was directed somewhere else -

Hot head, ... good luck

This is simply not true. There is fingerprints of climate change everywhere - that is not me. Reality is obsessed with reality, and there those that cannot accept it. Because to do so, means their methods are not right - largely so... That's what's going on here behind these turn of phrases. So yeah...typical tact, pot shot and make it a personal abasement, then ...redirect to another thread. Crass - and it won't work You are wrong. And I am right. sorry

It's not always about you friend I think it is cherish-able that you get to be a father, and congratulations - but ...you can also keep your climate resentment - if not coveted denial - as a compartmentilized effort. If you succeed in doing that, it won't bother you that I was talking to Scott.

You know ... I've been thinking about that DP thing. I almost wonder if that's going to be how most of our CC expression tends to behave/express in our summer climates of the future. As this inevitable change ( if not crisis) continues onward into the future ... it seems we have been reporting elevated nocturnal temperatures here more so than the other side of the diurnals - we have above normal afternoons..sure, but in terms of standard deviation, the night times throughout the eastern OV MA and NE regions seems owned by the lows. In a conceptual sense that makes sense actually. We are an exit point in an increasingly cT summer realm...so we live and breath and measure in a cloud of continental farts... It's hard to add enough solar heating to a 76 F DP, and still get the temperature too crazy in the afternoons at our latitude. That heat wave we had around the 4th of July in 2017 may have been our first synergistic heat wave ( Pac NW, just the way we express it...) I recall DPs one day in that stretch were 79 F, at 2pm at 94 F (averaged local unofficial home sites within a short clicks of my location) ... If we'd have done that 67 F, the air T might have made 105... speculation. But, the shorter version, I sense that we just get warmer and wetter here as a climate response, where as places like the Pac NW or the SW... or even the Dakotas, where they have less miasma, that's where they get those buck10+

won't matter ... you'll have your phone or what ever maxi tech pad.

hm I'll check in later if a late snow total update is needed... otherwise I'm checking out on this thread/event -

Anyway... Ptype rads have me over to snow now but it's still raining. Temp is up to 32.7 too - Helluva finish... LOL Just being a little snarky there but it's true. These 5 min obs are trying to do a kind of exit face smack on phase 1 of this event. It's like that scene in "Air Plane", when Leslie Neilson's character halts like it's an afterthought, turns back around, just so he can get one last smack in on the panicking passenger before heading back to cockpit - Phase 1 hesitates much in the same way. hahaha

heh.. we should probably take this to a climate thread; we seem to be collecting buns in here LOL

Essentially ...yeah. I've started noticing about 7 years ago ( prior to the 2015 spike anomaly freak) ..that began being the case, as you intimate 'more often than not' I started referring to it as our "flop direction" ... I mean if we're entering an event that is for all intents and purposes, even money as to whether it'll end up white or wet in the guidance and too close to have a lot of confidence either direction, we don't end up white as often. It's like the "marginal threshold" is moving up the EC ... We might have escaped the Marginal- and crossed into the NJ marginal+ It's possible it is a subtle distinction of CC reported through event behavior.

I get the impression looking at rad trends like this phase 2 might be oversold a bit for this afternoon. Guess we'll have to now cast our way to either glory, or falling back to seasonal trend of ever diminishing returns ... which this latter has about a 10-0 record ...

I cannot help but feel like last night would have been more of a snow transitioning to ice thing rather than a snow to 32.4 one, for the larger part of the interior eastern SNE region (... say N of the Pike/ W of 495) if this were 30 years ago - given the same synoptic footprint. Our winds here in N Middlesex CO have increased since 4 am, from the NNE, from a region of 30 F ... yet the temperature continues to rise. This is most likely from conduction as it's pretty damn warm at 850. The tucking flow at the bottom is not sufficient to compensate. interesting. there are strange events that take place while no one is looking, aspects that hearken to changing times.