Typhoon Tip

yeah...as in, "watch as the CAPE gets shunted SW of ever getting into New England" - sounds like a thrilling expenditure of time...

The warm up next week might be in trouble. GGEM and GFS have a diving intense S/W that would punch a pretty cold hole in that notion for uninterrupted span of days.

The notion of "termination shock" is very interesting. I believe it was Libertybell. He and I were musing months ... if not a couple years at this point, a science fiction novel whose theme would be rooted in that plausibility ... Termination bounce-back phenomenon. Shutting things down too quickly ... you know, alcoholics can die if they attempt to detox too fast - that is an example of termination shock in a single organism. Perhaps as a microcosm it supplies a metaphor for "Gaia". If there compensating forces in play that were happening within the din, and we remove the din, the compensating forces may rise to a state of proxy. And the system may rebound out of control - the pendulum swings the other way.

Don ...did you see the recent papers citing direct evidence of the salinity imbalance around Antarctica ? The findings suggest the slowing of the conveyors is not just a N. Atlantic problem. https://phys.org/news/2023-03-deep-ocean-currents-antarctica-collapse.html The implications range in a broad spectrum of consequence ... from destabilizing climate in an already destabilized climate (heh), to adding to species migration and/or loss.

It's impressive to see +14 to +21 machine/interpolated high temperatures between D5 and 7 (MEX) The synoptics are still fragile looking, however.

Euro's attempting the shorten the warmth next week with a big high idea ... I was hoping we could get that to last into that weekend but this run is got a sloped flow through the Maritimes and trough up there which ends it here

Well ... we had the day last week where we were hung up under an inversion/murk sky until 3:15 here amid the Nashoba Valley area N/E Mass, and guess what... despite only being 40 at 2pm we still burst made 66 by around 5 pm before settling slow down. There is also a gradation in this thing... It'll likely make 74 at BDL and if it only makes 62 at Merrimack NH ( for example or something like that) ...that's still a relative win in warmth. That said, ...it is also a compromise to some degree ( literally ) between the various modeling vs the undeniable aspects of April climo in anus hole continental America

Warmth may be the most fragile synoptic type in modeling ... particularly along and N of 40. But, assuming the present synoptic look works out ... he may be too cool on Tuesday and Wednesday ... I've seen it be close to 60 F over a snow pack in mid February with 850 mb of 0C ... Between April 10 and 15th... +3 to +10 850s with > 80% sun soak while there is a persistent continental transport (wind)? It should be warmer than 63 and 66 ...

Could be a quite a string of days ... Mon - Thurs Days featuring low RH air type, open skies through which rising April sun encourages boundary layer heights to expand into the +10 C 875 mb range. Probably 72 to 82 those daily afternoons. Wind isn't bonkers, either... GGEM was mid 80s but ... in deference to April I'll back burner that thinking.

NAM caved to the warmer look finally. Not sure I buy it … but it did come in way different

that ridge next weeks is oddly deflated looking ... but, yeah ...the GFS appears to be holding down the hydrostatic heights about 12 dm lower than the Euro. the models has a cool bias in that range - not sure if that pertains to that metric as well... but one model looks 80-like, while the other is trying to shirk it down to 73

It's 38 F here... Not sure exactly what the NAM said for you, but the FOUS numbers had that temperature implied where I am and that's happening - ... fwiw

Good battle between the NAM and the Euro ...

Nope... fits climo, too - When I saw the mechanics all going into Canada, it seems abandoning this sludge air mass would happen. The Lakes cutter initiated the BD...then left without scouring it out. man - It seems more likely today through Sunday was a temperature shit show from the beginning.

It's interesting the subtle difference between the two of them. The GFS's progressive bias ( that grows out in time...) is perhaps subtly represented there. It's going to also be interesting to experience the 24 hour turn around - assuming success in that above. Noticing the 12z NAM sort of less enthused as that Euro run in scouring out the scunge-at least by the old school FOUS method

that outta be an easy illustration ...

12z Euro would likely accelerate a lot of green-up aspects next week ... Monday - Thursday all above normal with sun.

I'm sure you can find other sites ...But this (below) is Albany/Suny's general web access. I would like to find one that carries all of them... because as the product looks like a grid, it is indeed. And the grid is cut up across sections for everywhere across the U.S. It's fun to geek out and look the FOUS profiles over the SW when they're in one of their historic Death Valley Venus deals... Or go to the N Plains during a magenta cold blast on the models.. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/index.php?d=wx_text That's the 61 block which covers the LGA-ALB-BTV-BOS region. 60 ( I believe...) covers PWM-CON-CAR - ...some place in western Maine. and so on...

I was just looking at the NAM FOUS numbers - it's a powerful tool that tech and graphics reliant modern Gen Z and Millenial Meteorologists don't know how to use ... or pass dynamics exams anymore... ( lol, just kidding) But it has 900 mb temperature of +18C over Logan, with winds out of 230 degrees at 12kts... Standard adiabatic extrapolation supports a 2-meter 26C!! The R2 level has 62% RH indicated so a little shaky on the amount of sun... I'll tell you what though. In addition to the 22kts index finger rule from old school, there was also known overly cloudy tendency in warm sectors where the front moves N earlier in the day. ... That's really the only limitation relative to this model run and cycle depiction. Otherwise ... yeah, the BL can expand a helluva lot more than 72 F if left to its own devices and sun ( These pieces of local climate study candy are why you can't just relocate to say ...some unknown city's climo like San Francisco, look at a few weather charts ...and "get it" very well... ) I'm trying to build a case here to overcome my years of being abused by back door paddling by cold nun real life experience N/E of warm boundaries in SNE....

you know what actually sticks out for me there is the SSW trajectories at 30kts ! that may be the indication I've been looking for to make me - personally - feel more confident in the rare warm-winning scenario the next day. Back in the 1990s ... I recall the AFD's of the era out of Taughton office often spoke of the 22kt index finger rule for between that level and 850, as a parametric lead in necessity for scouring out scunge atmospheres. It was base on empirical data, where iterative averages appeared to key in on that momentum threshold. Anyway, it seems we have a sufficient momentum, from a favorable direction based on that.... Hopefully other guidance join in -

If that rare BD washout scenario succeeds on Thursday ... that could really be a remarkable 24 hour sensible weather whiplash. Not a harmful one ... like in January, going from 57F, S of a weird boundary between the SE ridge and Scooter high, to losing that battle against said Scooter high to the tune of 27F in ZR the next day. I've seen that before. ...digress. But if the wash out succeeds, the GFS' known BL cool bias ... we'd need to correct up 5F at a minimum... particularly if the sky opens up with sun intervals from 11am to 4pm through. 564+ dm hydrostatic heights the BL expands unimpeded. Flags lazily waving around in a bath that smells like summer b.o. ( i.e., humid air, too)... That's what the models are sort of leaning toward, ...again, cannot underscore the rareness of achievement in April, so we bear that in mind. That all said, those Wed numbers ( ironically...) the model might do better with the cool bias built in, because that's fresh polar 'rhea off a heat sinking Labrador cryo anus so you go colder ( unfortunately...). The whole set up going into the next day appears to be an extreme potential. Ha! Normally, we go from 88 to 39 in the bigger corrections... not 36 to 77. Could we go from upper 30s to upper 70s ? It'll be a fun journey for the experimental forecasting angle.

Mmm... right

I realize y'all are only perhaps "tepidly" interested in temperatures, haha... No one asked for my opinion... but, I track spring warmth with the same passionate zeal as I do latter Autumn/early winter snow and cold. It's these first expressions when in the throws of seasonal change that really are a lot of fun and intrigue for me. In spring, this continues on into summer with tracking heat waves and heat extremes. I'm fascinated with 'heat wave' synoptic Meteorology - and there's a growing body of papered sciences around them, wholly needed, as heat wave phenomenon is/has fast becoming both a direct health and safety casualty problem, but also a longer term global security threat.. Anyway, ...you can't (apparently) encourage a girl love you, any more than one could ever succeed in getting those that are passionate about snow in the winter to suddenly develop an equal affinity for summer heat - hahaha. Don't worry, I'm not trying to do that. Just sayn' why-for

Heh... truth be told, I was hoping for a bit more from the models overnight wrt to the mid month paradigm shift. And it's hugely coherent, btw. Still seeing, en masse, the 850mb doing one of those reset retreats ...repositioning the 0C mean through 60N across the Canadian shield, leaving everywhere S of there oscillating between +3C pockets to +15 SW ejected plumes, is quite a bit-a different look than anything we've seen perhaps since last early autumn. That said, this looks more like (Climate Change base-line above normal material+ an above normal pattern)/2, but nothing "synergistically" bigger - yet? It could still happen. But the 00z GFS is trying to limit the ridge expansion - that "might" also be a function of it's progressive bias in that range ... consummately trying to ablate the tops of ridges - it does this.. so I'm not sure we won't see a bigger 500 mb ridge response mid month just yet. That would help limit these boundaries tainting the warm appeal overall. Or not.. the problem with our little nook of the world really is "our" problem. I mean we could have a historic warm mid month spanning eastern continental mid latitudes, and verify this expectation brilliantly ...while we are not invited to that party because we are really sub-synoptic scaled butt boned lol. We are a cold dumpster fire in spring here and it's just cruelly built into our geo-physics, land and air and cold Labrador circumstances.

Word! although... technically not a BD. I mean the front has settles south as a N boundary ..by 00z this evening it's lengthwise down LI ... Then S of there tomorrow morning. In that set up it's more a BD for New Jersey. But who cares, right - either way, ... draw the shades tomorrow