Typhoon Tip

It seems to be trying to lean that way, yeah - but I'm still skeptical for the time being. Like I said, it happens if rarely ... I wanted to give it to today's guidance. I'll feel more comfortable one way or the other when this is 24 hours lead. I mean I realize this is a nerdiliciously tedious discussion topic ... but the GGEM has the frontal vestige draped along the Pike down here at 18 z Thursday. The Euro has it through southern VT/NH (~) at that time... whilst the GFS has it either retreated up the Maine coast or washed out altogether. It would also be in question how much the sky opens up and allows a dose of heating - there's that too. I'll tell ya ...the real warm solution appears to be the NAM's both 00 and 06z solutions, which situate unabated 564 dm hydrostats ... through which there is partly to mostly sunny intervals everywhere E-S of ALB-PWM... That looks like 82 but I didn't get into the parametrics - that model could have that look at sell a high of 62 at KFIT ha.. Just going by the genera of the synopsis. I do find intriguing considering it's finer meshing and "in theory" better boundary layer resolution and all that jazz. Despite modeling still being challenged to [correctly] precisely resolve the lower 1,800 to 2,500 feet of atmosphere, particularly with regard to handlingly the meticulous requirement of retreating warm boundaries in eastern New England ( it's like the last hold out error sink in performance on the face the f'n planet Lol ) I will also admit, I have noticed some improvement in the last 10 years wrt to that head game.

I don’t know if I’d buy that front washing out so fast and bouncing everybody into the warm sector like that. This is April… It seems like people are forgetting, basic climatology of New England. Sometimes it happens it’s just it is the rare thing.

Wow you know it’s neat when you see this in the models. It’s spring sweep week over these next 7-9 days … the other end of which the entire continent and adjacent hemispheric limbs are shifted up in 850 mb thermal layout, with a concurrent heightening of both non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic hgts - a +delta that can be observed in just about every direction… I see this every year in the fall and in the spring. Some critical week where we either gain in the spring or lose in the fall, the resetting of the dial. I believe this next 6 to 10 days is that week for this year spring. doesn’t rule out a bowling ball or something fluky but … even by day 12 on these runs today. Most places south of the border could easily make 65 and probably make runs at mid 70s. I’m seeing a lot of 552 dm 500 mbar thicknesses even north of warm fronts.

Warmer signal mid month is trying to annihilate the previous +PNAP ... The Euro and the GFS trying to evacuate a EC implication at this point.

I'd really like to see that work out but I have my doubts the warm air gets N/E of NYC at anytime this week. For now, anyway ... We'll see where things stand tomorrow -

maybe dying elevated gunk spilling east over that heinous BD air mass

Could be an understatement, too - but yeah ...conservative approach is probably warranted until the signal gathers a bit more momentum. Longer version: That mid month could soar though. There are 'teleconnection tiers' in play ( just conjecture) where the factorization is greatest from lower to high. - the 1st level, more importance, is the anticipation of rising PNA through the 10th .. 11th, prior to its relaxation or even collapse back negative, thereafter. However, what is probably of greater importance to establishing a warm mid latitudes ... the decay of higher latitude blocking tendencies. This latter is a slow kinda grind but I do see that the modeled nodes are weakening out there - that's a very necessary first step in establishing any kind of real change... - the 2nd level is more background, and has to do with residual NINA hemisphere. Despite the recent SSTs decaying back to neutrality spanning the equatorial Pacific, the flow above in middle latitudes around the whole planetary system, being so large, doesn't exactly stop on a dime - particularly when we are heading into a time of year when forcing becomes insufficient to very readily impose change. Newton's First Law of Motion... heh, it's really that basic when we get down to it. So anyway, ... the last known forcing available to the total N. hemisphere was, and still to some degree is, the residual NINA... Many years with big warm bursts in April were during or aft of a decaying La Nina. It's a significant enough longer term correlation. Last week's MJO bullet points published by CPC suggested that the extended handling from that influence was in constructive interference with said background tendencies, fwiw ... so there's that. Honestly though, MJO's seem to have been largely uncoupled for months. I'm not sure we even observed very much influence from this recent phase 8-1-2 migration... Perhaps getting frost at night behind mere cold fronts was related.. So .. the 1st factor above is falling apart it seems. Or a least being de-emphasized in the guidance in recent cycles. I'm certainly not buying the 00z GFS's idea for that 240 to 300 hr range, out of box ... However, something like that could fit. Whereas the 00z Euro and GGEM look like they wanted to go toward the GFS, but when the rapidly pulled the westerlies N over the eastern continent, they end up stranding +PNAP trough base into one of those typical April whirl scenario. The whole morass could be early attempts to open up the flow, though ... The ensemble means of all three have a definitive -PNA dominated continent along with height growth centered on the 15th.

Mm ... I'm not sure we won't get ass paddled by the front hanging up at NYC - This next system (otherwise) is similar to this last one, with one key, important difference: the antecedent pressure pattern layout across Quebec is lobing around Whites and is clearly depicted in all guidance as either a BD, or ( most likely...) a scenario where the front just never gets back through as a warm frontal passage to where it can BD. Either way, that look is a pretty classic April 'no-warm-for-you' shit show synoptic layout. That's as is... I mean, it could modulate toward less impeded warm front - but in our climatology the return rate for that success in the first week of April is exceptionally rare to put it nicely.. I wouldn't bank on that in May.

You guys up that way just flat out failed to warm fropa prior to the cold frontal sweep ...as you seldom succeed to do in those situations. You really need a minimum of 22kts sustained 900 mb level flow from the SW/S to successfully crumble a warm front around the topography up there. Thus have any hope of scouring the cold out from the lee sides of the pine forests... ha. Talk to PF. Yesterday he was musing how the warmer feel was actually when the wind modestly gusted... When it went lighter, the air temp would settle off again. That's why - April sucks. Cold air seems to almost electrostatically cling to the terrain in New England, and requires the power of 10 suns to really bake it off... (being sarcastic -)

Shrub stems are green tinted and their tiny buds are swollen some. Interestingly...the Lilacs buds are more bulging then the rest. The Norwalk maple buds appear to be a little swollen. It's like just waking up and yawning phase out there

Craziest end to that Sox game ... wtf -

warm front means business where it succeeds - ... just didn't until it was too late. But ..here we are in late afternoon and though the sun is now sloped, it's a pretty nice backdrop to 65 F ... Quite the jump in the last hour ... hour and a half. 43 at 2 pm

wow did this turn out to be a royal ass boning for interior Massachusetts, N of the Pike... This was pure BL drag. There wasn't even any +PP N ... we just straight up could not scour this shit out in time. It's 70-75 across E NY... Any questions regarding why April is Satan's rectal glue of a weather month, please defer to Human Resources -

Sat shows a fairly defined clearing. ALB is open sun or very nearly so for example...with brightening/sky lights splashing sun into western CT/MA... It's moving like everything has since 1998 ... unusually fast. Anyway, it might be partly sunny across much of the area - heh... maybe that is scheduled and I'm late to the party on that. I've had a bad attitude about today all week, as it just looked like a typical bullshit New England failed warm sector in a morass of stranded cool murk. So far ...that's spot on. But, I do think these spring days are an interesting perspective when these back side baroclinic cloud walls suddenly peel away and the sun floods in... Looks like my buddy in Auburn 's saying the warm is coming in. Shot from 40 to 54 there.

Interestingly ... over this last week on those sunny days I was noticing how beige the lawn still looked under the warm sun. This morning...despite the still on going dammed air and cold rains ( 38 -R here ugh...) the yard is suddenly sheened over with noticeably more green.

The period ~ 5th -11th has plausibility above climo ... I wouldn't start at thread in spring, at this range ...unless a signal were 'extraordinary,' but this is a robust index relationship/correlation out there, nonetheless. And ... it also takes a bit of bravery on my part to even bring it up considering how checked out I am, hate and despise anything resembling winter at this point... but, I am at the end of the day always seeking the most objective impression on matters. So hats off to me I guess... haha. No but the PNA index takes the continent through a massive mid latitude implication around that time span. I wouldn't laugh it off ... there are operational runs that are responding ( I believe ...) to that forcing, as despite the longish lead they all have 582 dm closed anticyclonic height node over the Rockies ... Regardless of whether these exact cinemas play out the way they see it, they are outlooks the fit the following. Both the Euro and GEFs EPO computations result in an important dip, roughly between the 1st and 5th of April... +2 to -1 SD, perhaps crucial loading numbers when then also comparing the synoptic actuals. There is an apparent temporal relay, as the PNA then has a much more massive correction .. Right around the 3rd or 4th, the index enters modality ...ultimately rising from -4 to just over 0 SD by the 9th or 10th! That's a truly massive correction signal there. But the impetus here is in the term 'relay' - first the EPO loads....then the PNA totes it along and delivers it to 40 N ( typically). That's the idealized model, and then with onset +PNA ...you get the storm potential and the rest is history... Now... bearing in mind, the sun/seasonal forcing will be normalizing the lower troposphere, compensating baroclinic gradients/cold more and more. This could either result in nothing more than a chilly trough, or.. if timing is right, we can inject prior to homogenizing ...That's usually how we get it done post April 1s

First and failed of the season... ... 'least we're spot on climatology, then We should create a thread, similar to the perpetuity and purpose of the 'lawn and garden' thread, only title it, "SNE failing convection," because the remarkable dependency of that is a climatology in itself -

The period ~ 5th -11th has plausibility above climo ... I wouldn't start at thread in spring, at this range ...unless a signal were 'extraordinary,' but this is a robust index relationship/correlation out there, nonetheless. And ... it also takes a bit of bravery on my part to even bring it up considering how checked out I am, hate and despise anything resembling winter at this point... but, I am at the end of the day always seeking the most objective impression on matters. So hats off to me I guess... haha. No but the PNA index takes the continent through a massive mid latitude implication around that time span. I wouldn't laugh it off ... there are operational runs that are responding ( I believe ...) to that forcing, as despite the longish lead they all have 582 dm closed anticyclonic height node over the Rockies ... Regardless of whether these exact cinemas play out the way they see it, they are outlooks the fit the following. Both the Euro and GEFs EPO computations result in an important dip, roughly between the 1st and 5th of April... +2 to -1 SD, perhaps crucial loading numbers when then also comparing the synoptic actuals. There is an apparent temporal relay, as the PNA then has a much more massive correction .. Right around the 3rd or 4th, the index enters modality ...ultimately rising from -4 to just over 0 SD by the 9th or 10th! That's a truly massive correction signal there. But the impetus here is in the term 'relay' - first the EPO loads....then the PNA totes it along and delivers it to 40 N ( typically). That's the idealized model, and then with onset +PNA ...you get the storm potential and the rest is history... Now... bearing in mind, the sun/seasonal forcing will be normalizing lower troposphere, compensating baroclinic gradients/cold more and more. This could either result in nothing more than a chilly trough, or.. if timing is right, we can inject prior to homogenizing ...That's usually how we get it done post April 1s

Man...what an unmanned firehose in the GFS ... It's like it can't do it Huge wholesale mass field contortions ranging from -PNAP to +PNAP across a mere 2 days

Looking across the CONUS from ORD-BOS in the various model cinemas ... it appears there will never be a warm season this year, and in fact, CC is a scam and the ice age is nearly upon. Particularly true, in this recent state of the art upgraded GFS model's ... blithe disregard for seasonal change - so it seems. Although, the Euro seems to be shirking seasonal change, too - just in its own inimitable appeal... Neither it nor the GFS seem to acknowledge any geophysical fact that it's f'um April. And no, no snow from that - so don't bother with the 'so long as it won't be warm we may as whole hope' mantra because there is none for that, either... Just cold and infuriating for everyone else. 'Course, we mustn't delude ourselves from the very real and worth-while perspective on April as being the utmost shitbag month out of the year...

and I think it is interesting that the SE has already got some elevated twister accounting, too... That's been papered to be a part of CC btw - so this season adds...

Seems an easy guess work that this spring has a chance to be above normal severe accounting ... what, with the semi permanent unflappable f'n western trough? wait'll the diabatics of April solar inferno kicks in the big dawg CAPEs. Can't think of a better leading persistence --> cyclic earth carving twister events...

Models trying to come around to a warm pulse next week - I'm sure it's been noted....

Nice fat regional power outage blanketing 4 or 5 towns this morning... to which Ayer was one of them. Apparently some sub-station decide to trip ... or blow up. Who knows. Well...actually, it wasn't a damage thing or else we'd be out for 2 weeks. I read that these substation parts are not stocked? one particular reason why a Carrington Event would be particularly crippling... because A, it would take a long time to fab the parts necessary for each substation that got zapped, and B, because so many of them... it would take years (years!) - per NSA estimates - to restore the grid to any kind of function that we've multi-generationally become inextricable so accustomed to needing - to put it nicely. Jesus... It really does hone two failings about this thing... 1 ... Ironically, despite all that power being distributed across the face of the planet contained within the wholly dependent grid, it is utterly fragile. 2 ... The shear lack of back-up systems ( redundancy ) flop over for what is tantamount to an apocalypse if it truly failed. It was ugly out there. Within 20 minutes, the line at Dunkin pooled out the door, and people were yelling into the store as though the staff was somehow at fault. This is how fast "civility" and order and politeness ... everyday cooperative assumptions begin to break down. It really is a prerequisite to a species that deserves it's own demise, to evolve it to be helpless without an aspect they do not protect. Individual residences and edifice can certainly formulate ways to take themselves off grid when the grid trips... but still... society should long been researching and implementing back up systems - they don't even have to be as distributive as the primary - 'brown supply' the f'n population. Just with enough to run a light and heating element.

I'm only moderately impressed by that snow, only because it beats out the local climate signal by so far... But, that's at 7,000+ feet. right? I mean that's impressive but isn't that what happens in the clouds - particularly, a cold trough. It seems like we do this every year as our snow seasons finish off screwing us ... we go out and act all staggered by mountain snow somewhere. I dunno... Something similar to this happened 5 or 6 years ago, when there was a pretty potent wet season then, with slides and valley flooding...even quite a bit of res restoration levels. I mean... I was reading a paper about the expectation that all this isn't really going to help the drought there. The problem is that the terrain west of the Divide over western N/A, is too proficient in channeling melt and fall water before it can get into the sub strata where they need it.