Typhoon Tip

Tomorrow night arrived like a decent snow event west of BOS in the NAM FOUS

Geez ...I just got done talking about a warm burst signal this morning - heh... you ask and you shall receive. Although that may be genesis there. That's really pretty tenuous when it's a east of the cordillera like that. I'd like to see that upstate NY with at least 60s eating away the ski industry...

In principle ...the expansion of the Hadley cell is papered and legit ... Personally, I suspect 'some' of the present/modeled observed heights across the N arc of the Pac basin may be related to La Nina "hang-over," however. Only recently ( ... 3 or so weeks) entered the break-down phase of a collapsing La Nina scaffolding. In fact, the SSTs/thermocline modulations along and E of the 3.4 region of the equatorial Pac have recently rapidly switched signs toward warming ... As CPC's methodologies and NCEP et al describe, they've issued their last Nina advisory for this evolution. We are presumed neutrality moving forward. However, during this delta window, there is a warm surplus - it's more of a default circumstance of residual west Pac warm anomalies, with recently established near or at neutral SSTs in the east - not the same as a +ENSO ... heh, call it a "La Nino." The atmospheric mechanics are not really there. It just seems that after a 3 seasons of persistent Nina coverage, 2/3rds of the times representing clad coupling to the atmospheric circulation mode, it's too plausible that the ridging up there is geographically lagged by the west Pac forcing, ...while the new warming SSTs in the trop E are an indirect indicator that the circulation mode overall is then drawing the heights farther E. I'm curious if that effects the spring R-wave geometry over N/A... Conflicting signals for early heat ( or not..). The residual Nina favors higher heights over the eastern 1/2 of mid latitudes in April-June. But drawing heights across the N/Pac could either drop the field over the Midwest, or... if it got overwhelming, the whole thing could go 2012-like.

It's almost like you're trying to Feng Shui the outdoors to elicit a response from the 'spirit' of summer ? LOL ... Kind of like that guy that starts wearing cargo shorts on April 15 whether there is a backdoor 38er in mist or not - Luckily for us spring/warm enthusiasts ... April has a warm signal between roughly the 5th and 15th. I mentioned this a couple of days ago as a one sentence pot shot jest. I meant it though. We'll see, but last night the GGEM and Euro "might" but just be detecting. It's D8+ blah blab so the obvious etc etc... Fwi not w, the 06z GFS rolled up 582 heights to NJ in the fantasy range. See ... I think we have a shot of more of that showing up in the models. Yesterday, and this flat wave on Tuesday ...these may have been the last gasps/bringing in the loved ones. I just don't sense the background canvas of probabilities as being very favorable for cold April - mind you ...there is a distinction between April just being a really difficult month to enjoy around here, and waging for one that is above normal. Folks tend to conflate their disappointment, with science. Anyway, the last 7 or so years of Feb/Mar/Apr ( despite individual years hosting a late snow or two...) have observed an unusually higher frequency of what I call "warm burst synoptics" . Essentially, the R/wave redistribution catches the eastern N/A mid latitudes between any cold signal at all, and resulting warm ups seemed to 'synergistic' over-achieve. It's been rather alarming (frankly). There may actually be some argument that the greatest standard deviation events we have experienced in New England in the last 50 years are really those 80+F events during those three month. There was an Easter that had 90+F (but the year escapes me). Almost like in the aggregate, that is definitely the most usual. Albeit's significance silenced by the fact that it was actually enjoyable and not of the ilk tearing roofs off of homes or burying villages in blue snow. Then being recurrent encourages looking for leading indicators. I suspect we're presently in renewed signaling, similar to back before the records in February - though those results were relatively mundane. Despite the rapidity of the Nina circulation break down, there's still some hang-over identifiable to the 'attitude' of restoration/base-line. The MJO then appears it wants to at least smolder through the right side of the RMM. Meanwhile, the NAO, the EPO are both neutralizing rather abruptly end March... all the while, the PNA statically sub 0 SD. Putting these together .. hm

Pretty epic positive bust ... KpI of 8/ G4 mag raged on while of course cloudy in New England. Seems we've have 7 or 8 Kp > 6 events in the past 15 years, and 100% of them were cloudy. Heh. This one appears to have completely slipped by forecaster awareness, and it was potent too.

no worries... with the crossing of the invisible climate denial threshold... it's never going to snow again S of RUT-CON-PWM

Yeah been snooping around the hard hats from CSX. They're saying what we knew as neighbors going back years, "...That camp rail shouldn't have been used." He adds, "... but don't quote me" I can tell you as an eye witness, that track, when looking lengthwise down it - particularly on sunny hot summer days - the iron segments were bowing some. Not only that, it's on a turn, so they pitched the lay originally ... ... 50 years ago :/ ...by a couple itches by design, but the hard hat said it looked to him like that had 'improved' to a 7 inch draft. The CSX guy was nodding when I told him about the bent rail lengths, saying, "Yeah that warp is known as sun kink" ... We went on to mentioned Texas. But then I told him that even in the winter that rail was still warped looking, though. To which he nodded some more. By noon today ( this all happened 24 hours ago...) they had already removed that segment of the track completely down to the ties. Right? remove the evidence :/ Those blue cargo containers are garbage scows, btw. They began parking that train there habitually a couple years ago during the pandemic, ...sometimes for a couple of days at a time before moving them out to the Albany yards - after which they go on to some outfit in Ohio. That train was scheduled as a double haul, so the Intermodal was coupled, and it was a big fuck ...probably a half mile of train - it sat there overnight. No one in my neighborhood is altogether disappointed this track failure too place. Because imagine iron boxed pack full of scunge garbage baking in the summer sun... 94 f'um degree on July 1st, and CSK was taking advantage of the Ayer provincial neighborhood that are astride those rails. There was complaints to the town for two years since this practice started, and nothing's been done to stop them from parking fetid logistics right outside our f'ing doors ...while CSX makes lots of money no doubt. That's a hugely active line that cuts through Ayer. The two main center tracks bring the Purple Line commuter rail once per hour or two. Then, every so ofter, some 4 engine beast with clanging iron and house shaking weight rumbles by. Those two side rails are being used by the CSX in management with the center rails, like a switch yard. The old timers in the neighborhood say it was never designed that way. Those camp rails were just access points for local businesses, back when rail was a bigger part of shipping some ... you know, 90 years or whatever ago. But they were recently started being used and the whole thing stinks to high heaven as typical corporate captains seeing an opportunity to start making money without overhead' . It'll be investigated...

Frankly ... despite all long range twaddle at that range, and definitely wrt what we've dealt with over the past 6 months at even shorter ranges of 6 f'n days... that has more plausibility in my mind. Particularly when indexing - I mentioned yesterday a warm up that exceeds climo has some signature in April. the now cast on the MJO is proving the RMM guidance is too eager to kill the wave momentum, which appears it may be destined to the Marine continent... with residual Nina momentum not yet washed out of the hemisphere... that's starting to sniff out a constructive interference there. We'll see. Wouldn't be surprised if that range starts emerging as a warm burst.

Oh. That. Heh I had every news organization in New England knocking on my door when that train skipped the rail and sent its cargo down the ravine not more than 200 feet outside my front door. Sorry I didn’t have time to put my face on ha ha ha should’ve been wearing a baseball cap.

I don't know ...it seems they all spent time on and off with that thing next week. The Euro may suck donkey ballz now but this isn't the test case to point that out. They're all pieces of shit at this time of year anyway... We are in a longitudinal pattern and no model typically does well in that regime, ...now adding that to spring vagaries on top ...? There's no 'looking forward' to the next run of any guidance if one is being rational about limitations ... Big warm up in April possible, btw

I guess it depends on one's expectations but the charts from 10 days ago, for this week, were not much different than the charts now for 10 days from now - with one subtle exception, they are warmer in the general panache. That look back whence, which had sub 540 hydrostatic heights everywhere btw, resulted in 50s this week under Equinox warm sun. So...we are above normal in spring, despite that look. It's a hidden trend established in near perpetuity spanning the past ... oh 10 years really, to always have to add warmth to mid and especially the extended. The arctic outbreaks of 2016 and early this last Feb were exceptions to that rule... But here, we combine that with spring's tending to do that, anyway. Then, adding the present negative PNA through the period... mmm gee, I think it may end up warmer than the modeled signal. The question is...can a system along the way "overcompensate" ... maybe...

It's above normal the last 3 days ... in the 50s. I guess it depends on one's expectations but the charts from 10 days ago, for this week, were not much different than the charts now for 10 days from now - with one subtle exception, they are warmer in the general panache. Yet we are above normal in spring... I guess if by 'spring warmth' we rock 70s in convertibles ... probably not? But it's spring.

While for the vaster majority, technology blinds civilization. These synergistic deadly heat waves, or freak 30" snow falls, California being bombed by 10 years of precipitation inside a single winter... or methane hydrate blowouts in Siberia... sea level rise... oceanic deoxygenation..., humanity is just too ill-conditioned to really quantize those troubling omens for being pacified in perpetuity. It's really a failure about our nature: too much hesitation unless directly harmed, right now. There's an interesting rub about that ... how technology shelters inside the industrial bubble. Technology is a bit of a metaphor for a virus on this planet - perhaps your "superorganism." Just like a virus, it fools the natural "immuno-response," the ability to stop injury by way of blocking response mechanisms - in this sense, feeling the negative impact of our actions. Such that the pernicious result of our actions are largely unknowable by soothing the senses while technology consumes. By the way... I have nothing against tech. In fact, we are already too committed to it to survive a set back ( which is likely coming ). It's a race. We created tech and sold our evolutionary souls to it, and now we are inextricably dependent upon it . For example, should the grid truly fail, 1/3 the population is dead in 1 month. Of the remainder, 70-90% estimated gone in 1 or 2 years ( this is not true for those human pockets that don't live in the socio-technological dependency, btw). Whether reality in such a d-day scenario bears itself out, for the sake of discussion we all carry about in an assumption most don't know they're making. What needs to happen is technologies need to be invented to compensate for the injury of the technology that has already been invented. That's a tricky race... Probably one that will fail - because evolution never gets it right in one try. Everything we see in the natural order that presently survives is successful after millions of years of trial-and-error, where the "errors" did not result in blowing themselves to kingdom come - metaphorically speak... 500 years of industrialization of the planet hardly seems like it's withstood the crucible of time. This techno-evolutionary leap in humanity is iteration #1

To me it is interesting that in thesis it is written, "...This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide..." You know, this goes back to the Keeling curve (1958+) analysis - later, superimposing the temperature rise over the C02 increases demonstrates a pretty dead match. It's like these Hansen et al findings are really just adding to a consilience. The science of climate change keeps formulating new approaches that just add to a correlative pool. Of course, 1981 is a long while ago.. Any skepticism about the C02 correlation by this point in history is either contrived by faux science or all but immoral. But it is interesting that the history/evolution of the present day understanding really should be more institutional at this point - Personal furthering notion... the problem in that latter sense (I suspect) is human limitation related, a limitation that is there by way of all evolution of life at a biological level; constructing truth has to happen by means "corporeal-based reality." Meaning, what is directly observable via the 5 senses. You tell a person to beware of something, they'll bear it in mind. If they hear, see, smell, taste or touch, sample that something directly, only then will they actually react. This specter of CC, prior to ...perhaps 10 or 15 years ago, had no corporeal advocate. Simply put, it was invisible. Combining that notion with the shear grandeur of the whole scale of the planet, not being mentally tenable to most ( let's get real), acceptance --> recourse was going to be racing against time with a broken leg. It really is only beginning to manifest in such a way that can be seen or heard or felt...etc, and even these cataclysms are being ..almost shelved because they are media spectacles and drama someplace else? While for the vaster majority, technology enable -blinded civilization. Eventually, though, the industrial bubble does have a fragility. And, until CC somehow either directly or through indirection of a multitude of factors finally pops that protection, humanity will unfortunately continue enabled from what it is they (apparently) must have in order to at last react and learn - pain. All the while, the wrong momentum gathers....

Looks like we're back to some velocity aspects with that thing riding up a burgeoning SE ridge. It's really Saturday afternoon and night and by dawn on Sunday that's probably got a clearing back of the head racing away and leaving strata streets moving NW/SE in splashes of sun/breeze during the morning. "IF" that can speed up even a little more, Sunday has some d-slope aspect to it. Not terrible... It probably does correct faster, because that's a pretty dependable result ... in early out early when these S/W are running up gradient like that.

Could be... You know, I've had a problem with the western N/A bombardment all winter frankly. Firstly, it's not deep science exactly to reveal it hasn't really correlated too well with NINA. These so-called 'river' events are actually more NINO like ...etc..etc ( but the use of the term in media as it pertains to this season annoys me because a true river event is more perpetual with a clearer STJ origin in the tropical/lower boreal winter latitude interface. This season was more about an active polar periodicity of S/Ws... it's not really the same). Anyway, the Pacific Basin uncoupled from the La Nina baseline for 3 to 4 weeks between late November and late December 2022, but even after that had passed ... the pattern seemed to quasi occupy both spaces much of the way. It was either a lesser typically realized variant of NINA totality ... just not recognized ( perhaps ) for that rarity. OR, something else was offsetting ...at times succeeding more interference. The SE ridging at times isn't a terrible NINA fit, incidentally. It was funny that there were all these immediate suppressing conjectures that rang out of the science ambit in the weeks following that titanic blast. I didn't know... I didn't have any insight one way or the other, but as more of a spectator to it all ... I thought that was a bit presumptive to be so quick without more staged investigation. It was like a earth's syringe poked a whole in the stratosphere and injected toxin directly in - to be fun with ... just sayn' It's water vapor and other gunk from bowls of the planet - I was more of the school of watch and wait. I haven't actually read any papers ... but I'll try and find - it wouldn't shock me if the skeptics were premature.

No... it's actually sucked duck ballz for the past 51 consecutive years...

Folks may find it interesting that 90% of the AGW quotient has been absorbed by the oceans ... this according to that despicable colluded bastion of liars known as scientists. You prolly heard of 'em... go by the name-a NASA ... This bag woulda been a whole lot worse by now if it wasn't for that big friendly oceanic heat sink giving humanity second chance after second chance in this unwittingly fervent Fermian explanation - And as the industrial gears of conveniences continue to enable humanity with the relative utopia it provides, it's simply a problem with enabling. That's it. Nothing else really... when we're in this (compared to 100 years ago), "risk" becomes lesser knowable. Who the f born since ... 1940 really is conditioned to understand real existential threat? No...there's no 'projected sense' of what bad decisions are in a realm like that. There's no consequences. There's no lessons learned. No realizations ever made. Not here inside the industrial bubble, where a buffet of alternatives offer salvation from responsibility. People deny because they can. Somewhere along the rants and diatribes of earlier chapters ... I spent time discussing how the consortium of those in higher academia that I socialize with ( PHDs and the like... those happy with their silent research and family) agree. Curing AGW is not a tenable goal. Being forced, however, by suffering and lot of population correction, is. The problem with adaptation in a post- AGW reality is far more so definable as a sociological one. Not technology limitation.

still dealing with a lack of cold in the lower troposphere ... I bias playing out like an unrelenting theme, all year long and now into early spring ... I don't seen that as having changed. we're not even seeing terrible 500 (ml) mb evolutions for the journey, either. but when the troughs clear the Appalachia cordillera, and 'trigger' coastal redevelopment ...all Miller B's are trying to close off new sfc lows really inside warm sectors. It's hard to get ptype situated the way the snow mongers want for one, but for another.... you don't get very strong deepening within the lower troposphere, when cold is modest and the b-c walls are missing --> which then keeps the hyrdostatic heights elevated for the loss of dynamics --> less feed-backs and that's the ball games. What is interesting ( for those not pissed off first ..heh) is that we keep seeing this result as a correction from extended and mid range <-- to shorter range. The longer terms synopsis are almost always colder ... whereby the models are correcting milder and/or we are verifying routinely milder than outlooks. these gigs in coming ... kind of reminds me of the Dec twins of '96 ( the 2nd of which was the Cantore thundersnow)... Those were moderate potency total wave spacers that over-achieved ... and brought something like 15 to 20" across a 36 hour span to the interior. Dec 6-9th that year. Not so much as analog, but just the short duration in a fast -like flow. This time? same pop-pop, however... cold is putrid. Yeah...it's spring so what do we expect and all that... but it's been that same "putrocity" since last autumn. We have a subtle index -related signal through the period. The actuals/dailies of the charts look more interesting, however. It appears the blocking influence is sneaking in between the index domain in where they are positioning geographically... so the PNA is showing a modest rise, and the NAO a modest descent... Yet the whole side of the hemisphere is modeled with an unusually suppressed polar jet. It's like 'hiding' the potential there. A potential that may be realized as cold rain if these same plaguing oddities are integrating into the setups.

Personally, I've had an outstanding winter season for general risk/threat assessment periods. However, the periods ( time spans...) themselves only materialized oddities - most of which in very fair terms were oddly under performing. Pure emotion op ed: Yeah, this was not a good winter. Particularly for the 'model spectator cinema' pastime. As far as snow, I'm sitting at 40" give or take....in an area of interior SNE that tends ~ 1/3 more so over that as a seasonal average. Now ... I don't typically gripe for low snow numbers (myself) ... but if one is really looking to put snow on the Earth? yeeah, this was less than a C-grade imho... Trying for logic in a jilted malaise takes a bit of bravery at times when seeking constructive qualitative remarks ...lol, but when you come up with less than average on any test... that is by definition a f'n failure. Done deal. Ungood winter per that metric alone. But then adding to that just how the cinema in watching 100% ( not exaggeration) of all (lower frequency too) events under perform within a dearth of risk periods. It's like the movie reel is skipping back to the beginning of that washroom scene in Shawshank to a captive audience. Though I am not certain, I don't think it was very good for other winter enthusiast/recreational interests, either. It just seems there was very little redeeming value to this 4 or so months, overall. I can't find much. I'm sure those that hail from NNE may have different perceptions on matters.. but, the eastern OV/MA/ combined with SNE is a much bigger damning space. Incidentally ... the northern Lakes to the N/Plains and N Missouri valley region is under the gun for spring floods. I was reading these regions have 150% ( ave) with greater regions, encased with snow that has a water content that is in the top 10%tile of climatology for snow/hydro ratio. Beyond their flood monitoring efforts... it's an interesting large continental environmental factor for assessing the heat in N/America this summer... at least the first 45 or so days of it...

Agreed ... ceilings may be an issue, however. NAM 700 ~ RH fields are in the 70%, but the morning sat suggests that may be more down CT and below. Can see elevation enhancement in loops... I'm hoping for a few moments with light wind and high equinox sun at 50. We jokingly refer to that as 'nape factor' but it's really (usually) the only redemption path at this time of year, barring 2012 Next Friday still trying to send 850s to over 10C with 560 dm hydrostats clear to central NE ...but I'm sure that won't last.

It's like higher probability than climate for protracting a cold hemisphere deeper into spring, while at the same time that particular model run, at that range, has less chance of verifying than Forest Gump in a Mensa debate. This last thing was a thing of perfection that found a way to f* up for a lot of us. Fascinating really... We couldn't get the models to be consistent within themselves, let alone agreeing ... poor consensus at 12 hour leads? That may be how/why that thing was "historic" right there... This pattern did that? This pattern won't allow any guidance to be right outside of blind luck that far out. It's even worse that standard bun-dom

I've been in ditto mode my last three weekly outlooks ... Until I see that garland look disintegrate, I really don't see us shifting. I mean we'll gain therms by weight of the rapidity of solar return as we cross the equinox and force-feed about a million thermal nuclear warhead's worth of additional energy per week but it's going to be a slow grind given that look

It really is just god-awful out there... pal hints at sun at other times totally overcast, with rafter creaking wind gusts amid a nape caressing 39 F ooh Euro with a long duration snow crusher at the end of the run heh

I thought the first ( back in Dec ) was more eastern limb ? Either way, this recent one was definitely retrograding, while waning. And fact of the matter is, we did have the moving parts in the deep layer mechanics come into line and climate. The N/stream tucked and subsumed a S/stream wave. Too many 20+" totals in the els to prove it. The devil was the BL lacked cold air and a baroclinic wall to provide a low level cyclogenic frame. Having antecedent sounding between BTV and ACK not appreciably differential prior to delivering those goodies... f'ed this thing up 10 ways from next Tuesday. Just not for everyone - that's the tell. T Which frankly... lacking cold is a part of a retrograde NAO that failed. That is perhaps more the head scratch on this recent pass thru. So I guess based on that it doesn't matter. Lol... regardless of east or west or dogs or cats ... neither NAO correlated altogether very well. Boy the plague of lacking cold air. That is really what's been endemic to the whole season - and a circumstance that remained consistent right through both NAO episodes. They were unable to overcome that limitation with an inject. The first of the two back in Dec, yeah...I can see that if indeed it was E biased. There's more of a dice roll with those... But the recent one? Wow what a major butt bang considering it was even proceeded by a -EPO in the process of relaying into a +PNAP.