Typhoon Tip

It appears the 23rd is more than less an inflection point. Fwiw, I keep noticing the 850 mb corrected significantly south passing that temporal entry, and then is in no hurry to go back... Some of the guidance had been trying to sell that lakes cutter/frontal passage as of a more coastal commitment but it is/was dubious against seasonal trends. That's been a kind of under-the-radar "model winter" persistence: coastal eye candy becomes a St Lawrence cruiser... We can argue a coastal doesn't fit the wave lengths on the front side of said change, anyway... I'm wondering what happens why out there. Because the 850 mb correction is coherent around the cross-guidance appeal just as well as the GFS. Some 25th..but yeah. However, they all have a ridge in the west, west biased ... in some cases, so far that it starts tugging the PNA down again. It's like a pattern that is sharing positive and negative index space without actually being neutral SD

What about us in here... haha.

hm ..does look improved.

HA, ...NHC should be a little more honest about how they really feel

The Euro's agreeing now with the GGEM/GFS re the 'quasi' norlun IVT lagging with persistent light snow on Friday. I suggest a thread... this specter has been coherent for enough runs. I told Will I'd do one by last night but I have other discussion obligation that took me off it. I'll put one up for moderate risk for (minor+moderate)/2 return

Well ...that explains the sleet contamination better than - but we both agree it's not likely right. Also, the BL ...the model does tend to saturate/wet-bulb higher than most other guidance in the mid range. I see this a lot with the GGEM ( and the only reason I bother to discuss is because the GGEM's been through some upgrades over the last 2 years and it has been showing somewhat improved performance...) where it places the rain/snow transition around -2 or -3 C at 850mb ... within a pounding CCB head. Nnnno

I realize your post was for dark humor/sarcasm but ... I took a look at the other synoptic metrics just for shits and giggles and that's basically impossible what it's doing there a few hours either side of 228. Vastly too warm relative to it's own guidance parametrics. The GGEM ( for the general audience) has a whopper warm BL bias in that range.

GFS is back to suggesting more snow Friday ...but the system evolution is also morphing. It's looking like a marginal BL event entry, with an isentropic burst over top overnight Thursday... cold rain and probably cat paws/sleety, but toward the end of that phase of things...there is an attempt to flash RT 2/S NH over to soaked cotton balls toward 12z Friday. Then,...there is more emphasis being placed on the trailing jet max during the day. The interior transitions, prolonging the event as a possible 9 or even 12 hours of persistent light snow.

that's your household ...? HOLY shit what a deliciously tedious hovel of One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest that's gotta be. So how many times a year does the local PD park at angles across the front lawn with their roofs lit up lol -

The 00Z EPS was an interesting trend. It's a tough sell though... it's tough to be abused for months and then drop that sentiment and be purely analytic/objective about regional chances ( got it ), but the EPS mean has significant number of members with a sub-index scale nuke. Those are tough to ferret out of any D7 range, let alone during a supposed pattern change period. Re the latter...the pattern is still destined to change, but to what? The bamboozle in this is that it doesn't appear to be changing toward one that is ideally useful to winter enthusiasts over the eastern continent. But as other's have rightfully pointed out...we can still do okay with cold loads into the Can shield, and a ridging depicted SE ... It's a matter of favoring storm typology - which, no surprise, a 00z EPS and 12z Euro *(yesterday) and 00z "ICAN'T" runs...sarcasm aside, might fit that kind of tapestry. I'm not willing to punt the 23rd, ... I only admit to it's low probability for positive return, and am willing to wait a bit.

yeah, hence "reasonable compromise" It was too robust with QPF, but it was also better continuity, consistently west of other guidance where that seemed to do okay. So we trade off in disappointing amounts for actually getting something/anything to happen in 2022-2023 Just my take - doesn't have to be the best version.

Looks like the Euro was the better fit... Somewhat better continuity, and layout of general 1.5 to 2.5" is a reasonable compromise between the unrealistic 4-6" ideas, and the relative no-show by some off-on other guidance types. Good win there For me personally ... this was a modest positive bust. I was on the fence about this thing even as the rad was activating on this yesterday, thinking a lot of the western edge/banding might have trouble getting down to the earth. Higher pwat in the area may have helped this facilitate better surface realization.

Exits with significant wind too

Heh …

Heh...if it makes you feel any better ( probably not... ) that event had a fairly low probability for a positive return all along. That said, it's not sealed in fate just yet. That's still 4 or 5 days away. It's hard to maintain an objective vigil ... when there wasn't one to begin with hahaha.. No but, given the winter we've had, makes it sort of difficult to imagine anything working out really. It's been a little uncanny thus far? I wanna hammer it harder but I can't, not based upon decades of experiencing ups and downs. I remember a winter in the 1990s... right in the middle of a fantastic decade. 1994-1995. Man, that year stood out as numero uno sore butt year of all time... Until 2011-2012. But ...actually, both years had at least one decent event. The one in '94-'95 was a February 5 coastal bomb. Storm went from like 1004 mb to 970something in 10 minutes. It was too progressive to really be a big dawg, but there resulted 10 to 18" totals around the region, nonetheless. At peak strike, up at UML ... I recall est 1/16 mi vis snow/wind combo. It ended a remarkable streak of horrible luck though - in some senses, it was worse than this year, because first of all, that was the first snow of the season that really meant anything anywhere ... a bit later than our current plight at Jan 15. Secondly, much of the season the pattern was characterized as a 'low amplitude +PNA'. It looked from orbit like we should be doing better but nothing would ever break right. The persistent pattern just looked similar to this for 60 days prior to the coastal bomb... ...resulting in nothing... From orbit, that seems it shoulda been better. Not sure if it was warmer than normal ...I don't recall. I just remember the pattern looking similar to that above, unrelentingly too flat to actually do much of anything. Then this happened...

Bingo ... A bit early for me, so ...I'm not saying I'm entirely there - yet. But my patience is wearing thin. It also has nothing to do with whether I can be objective about where we've been, are at, or are going - but I am a realist, and it does grow more difficult to maintain interest when uninspiring nuance is controlling every outcome. By the way folks, nice quasi 2005 Dec analog on the 12z Euro 7.5 day... ha, in contrast to the sentiment I just leveled above -

Is very much of this even reaching the ground down there ? I'm wondering because as I've driven around town up here in Ayer, looking S, there's virga plumes ...I'm wondering if much of this under the western edge is a virga event, or will turn out that way. That's not uncommon for model error in backed deals, to see/think virga is ground materialized. This should be a great sunset day, by the way.

funny...I check it out, mainly just for popcorn and coke. It seems to always have a more preferable solution in winter day-to-day runs, than the GEFs. I almost wonder if that's because the climate USE to carry on with more preferred solutions. Ha, so it is mixing that up with the shit we eat in the more 'organic' now-climate. Lol

fozz is an urban word for what modern vernacular already had devised a term for, 'shart' Imho, it's not a good emoji to have made available. It's sewing dissent into a powder-keg environment with too many that are precariously too close to being mentally too irresponsible and it will ignite - obviously! It smacks as "wanting" the vitriol... because logically, it does not otherwise offer anything. Regardless of what motivated ( eh hm) this may be minor but is still incrementally adding a "crassification" to an already diminishing return.

Mm... I'm starting to raise miss-givings. I think that ridge is too far west - and perhaps silently worse, has been retrograding west relative to the nightly mean ( each night, the ridge axis is bumped a little more west). It could come back east...? sure. But for now, that is really on the western edge - any more and that "clicks" the hemisphere right back into a -PNAP overall ... ( Something no one in this particular social media pastime probably wants to envision, but if this horseshit continues into February, warm enthusiasm et al should have a good feeling for early spring. ) But back in the here-and-now.. that can still work out. if the system frequency is characterized by middling S/W mechanics. Those will tend to flatten out and still conserve enough to eject successful events up along the ambient polar boundary -...probably situated STL to NYC in that look. However, should anything of greater mechanical space arrive in that layout ... it will cut to the Dakotas and back east will send up early crocus spears.

Yeah I don't carry any illusions about whether I had it or not. I had some early-on Omicron thing back last April, like everyone else ... in spite of being squared away with immunization protocols. It struck me on the second day nigh my sister's death at the hands of an aggressive form of cancer. Like who has a week like that? Maybe someone eastern Ukraine? It was a mild head cold, otherwise felt a little lethargic maybe. Really nothing to write the relatives over...lasted all of 4 days. I tried to reengage with normal life, which is daily ( almost ) regimen of cycling ...running..etc but my right knee locked up. Just woke up out of the blue with half immobilization and lot of pain. Turned out, joint stiffening is descriptive in the Omicron symptoms - or can be. It took me about 1.5 months to get back to regular work outs, and to this day...I still feel I've lost something and haven't gotten it back. Since then there have been other sub-variants. This latest identified,XBB1.5, is so-called, "immune evasive" - sounds like hyperbole BS to me, if not marketing. All of them are evasive at first... Oh but I'm sure that gave the "COVID industry" a little more longevity. This may be kind of a simpleton question but, if it is evading than it is not producing antigens ( right?) ...wouldn't that cause these home rapid test kits to become even more less useful? The COVID story likely never ends ... More like fades away from public interest by acceptance. It'll be impossible to catalogue, if not unnecessary due to the attenuation arc. The mutation tree becomes too diverse. Eventually "medicine" and media will disconnect because the latter can make more money selling celebrity affairs - you know, the actual important stuff. Yup, our species is destined to live in an ambrosia of variants ... You know...I can't recall the exact percentage but I think close to 50% of the human genome has ERVs ( indigenous retro-viruses) now permanently a part of our species heredity. 50%. The survivors of "millennial COVIDs" transmitting their saga a 1,000 nth generations henceforth... Kind of makes you wonder when your looking into your sig others eyes in the afterglow of a good orgasm, 'what did I just make love to?' ..hahahaha.

I tested negative … 3 different times with 2 different rapid test kits. I’m not sure those are entirely accurate. I’ve never had a head cold nag on undeterminably like this. It started on Dec 29 … still whoop coughing.

Euro needs this. Even a little coup. I mean I suspect folks are too hard on it - debatable. But you know even a 1-2” band puts it ahead of the others.

I'm not sure it is ( to me ) however, with the NAO diving and having the ballast of it hanging over the western limb of the domain. In fact, it's almost back to JB... between there and the D. Straight. This thing doesn't appear it has room to go N. Looks like a Minnesota squeeze, but it may not even get that far N before it squishes east. We'll see, but I'm about to pull the trigger on a thread. There's a decent up side, because it's riding over the top of a flat ridge, which means it will have a PWAT source hoisting over what cold there is - so long as the boundary stays along the Sound. This year's debacle requires a 4-6" event be cited. re cold... The Euro is substantially colder than the GFS in T and DP. Meanwhile the GEF NAO mean leans on the operational version as too warm in the BL C-NNE. So/if the Euro closes off a 2ndary between the eastern tip of L.I. and CC Bay, that'll tug S - speaking partial between depiction and imagining the correction. Waiting a couple cycles... thinking late Sunday if it still looks this way I put one out. I also suspect the subtle progressive bias of the GFS might be damping the mid levels or wholesale the event, or both. It's a battle between that concept and model magnification, admittedly.