Typhoon Tip

This scenario is so marginal that a 1/2 deg variation would certainly make that a valid case ..and since it can't be excluded from happening at this range and all considerations notwithstanding, it's a valid take. He did say, '...may change'

EPS probably doesn't reflect that kind of antic ... It's a pretty gnarly continuity hiccup so ... meh... doesn't really factor as much for me personally. I rather like the GGEM/GFS et al of then, now moving a deepening 500 mb center under RI latitude... That sticks out more to me

I suspect you will in the end ( shhhh )

I honestly can't blame you ... I don't normally condone 86ing inclusion of any model ... but I really keep coming back to the subtle progessive bias of the GFS, which is noted by NCEP et al, as being instrumental/most like why it it is consummately orchestrating this thing to shallower dynamics - which of course feeds back negatively on all synoptics inherent to cyclogenesis. It can't have deep dynamics and still be hell bent of stretching, so it takes some percentage away...

I'm behind ..and trying to catch up to the end of hall that seems to be running away like a nightmare... haha but just as Will and I have been pointing out, this shows ... a little increase in that ridge ( more w-e than n-s but there is some of both ...) and the N stream is set upon a slightly farther E dive. very critical in a scenario with ass vomit polar rot for air massing

Late to the ball game this morning but just took a look at the ICON model... Jesus christ. Has a coveted seldom seen 'magenta' band ( muah hahahaha) up and down the Worcester hills..

What is the RGEM's domain region ? I'm wondering since the N stream isn't relayed in just yet ( or is it? ) ?? They're supposed ( I thought ...haha) to be relayed by the global runs around there domain termini but I was told that on the fly at some point - seems reasonable but I don't know if that's fact.

The '97 parent wave space was a 'bowler' ... this is entirely a different deep layer evolution. It's a subsume scenario - I drafted annotation to point out those differences, now scrolled into the oblivion ... The only similarities this may have to that is the marginal thermal constraints. But if that were the only metric, every spring event is an analog...

It depends on the precise morphology of the total wave length spacing... I mentioned late last evening when I was vaguely conscious with sleepiness ... that the western ridge needed to be more so... but, I had the following popsicle headache aspects in mind when making that drive by posting: The ridge in the west can get more amplified, but it doesn't have to be in the Y coordinate. It could do so in the X-coordinate, in which case the N/stream subsuming wave would arrive on a shallower azimuth. The ridge could amplify in the Y-coordinate alone, which is akin to a shortened wave length and that would dictate a further west dive like you're intimating. These spatial geometries are critical in where this thing bottoms out. While all that is happening, the entire super synopsis could be moving E.. just to add another series of vector calculus to this whole thing.

I would love to see a frontogenic product/chart as those heights are implode into a black hole... ha I mean it's gonna generate it's own meso complex with that much temperature crash at mid levels. Interestingly ...the 300mb + sigma levels don't really have the classic "diffluent fan" running down stream, however, this thing does close off at that level.

Need more ridging in the west.

This ICON reigns in the start of the 0Zs looking deeper with the N stream at 66 hr

Maybe crazy sounding to say … particular given the conditioning we’ve suffered unrelenting since … 2015 really. But objectively it appears the higher amplitude guidance renditions will be more correct than the lower.

That's typically the case with cut off/fire hose events... The SE zone take the brunt of what falls and the snow region actually melts down to less. Normal

Going back many cycles in mind's eye... I don't recall if there was ever one where no model offered d-drip doses. There's always one that's not allowing us to drift away from this .. pure evil man. lol The UKMET has 30" then fades, but look out! Here comes the ICON ...or the Euro ... There really is just about zippo operational version consensus. Only that there's a system passing through

Nothing campaigns spring like 504 dm hydrostats down to Pittsburgh PA on March 25th... not sure, though, how much of this is just the GFS non-responsive to the seasonal forcing - I've sort of sensed this since the era of rapid version upgrades ...going back about 5 or 7 years. I realize that's 384 hours so has 0 real value, but I'll be watching for the GFS' incompetence to sense the hemispheric changes and fighting it. Obfuscating matters ... I suspect that a general colder and stormier profile to the pattern may persist though to the 20th anyway.

I realize this is back-burner for most at this point... but, just dropping by to update: The end point of this risk period, the 15th" ... has definitely become more negotiable ... The hemisphere may persist in this kind of phase proneness. But at an even baser level, steady diet of Pacific waves with tendencies to +PNAP, while modest less than overly suppressive blocking across 60-70N points to a longer finish. There's another increment therein possible between the 18th and the Equinox. This system next week may not be the last event as some have tongue in cheek surmised - ... personally wish it was but it is what it is

Euro construct 3 to 4mb > sfc PP across Quebec

yeah...convention ( and for good reason) at this range is to lean on ensemble means - interesting

Sooo.. heh 12z's have either trended warmer, or a big waste of time ... take a pick? sounds like March D6 forecasting, incarnate.

GFS is just progressive compared to all other guidance... It's tearing apart the phase manifold by forcing everything to England

It was non-existent haha... Yeah...I mean I'm not sure but that particular event has been continuously popping up in my mind, not because it is any kind of an analog or even close to it... but just in so far as that thermal aspect - that mostly fell at night. That's A... it raged on into the morning but by then the CCB was so dense that even with April sun rising over it was unable to overcome the "cold momentum" if you will... I'm also not abundantly sure there wasn't any deceptively albeit crucially important llv cold lurking across Nw-N NE ... Sometimes like Will and I were mentioning it only takes a couple DP worth in a marginal set-up to make world's of difference.

ICON is several dm deeper in max amplitude/stall point near the latitude of PSM/E ... which is too far up our keesters for comfort. Not sure on the model at any point beyond 36 or so hours... I've seen it be vagarious at just the precisely wrong amounts ...however unnoticeable ... kinda like it was trying to get away with something haha...you believe it... risking at own peril. Anyway, relative to this run, this appears to be a deeper mid level amplitude management, while still not detecting enough cold air to have helped force this thing more S/SE of that end 144 hour position.

right ...the N and S ends of 495 are quite a bit closer to the coast than the W-NW arc of that civil layout. it's kind of why the distinction of 'beyond 495' sort of tacitly really means NW of the tangent to that arc ... like this I guess ...But is obviously negotiable at the southern end of that bold line... and also it's not a hard transition axis either - there's fiddle room depending on circumstances..

Ha... no idea that conversation happened.. (little too much traffic in here to keep track I guess -) Right, in addition to forcing low position ...it then focus those other goodies aloft too. I was being more broadly conceptual but yup