Typhoon Tip

Yeah, we did ... It's a matter of frequency? - the latter is accelerated in recent years. I think it takes time to sort out attribution though. I'm not sure I believe articles in mainstream Industrial Media Complex headlining ... that blame the Canadian fires on early heat wave(s) - that might be so, but unfortunately ... recent cultural decades have blown a goodly amount of base-credibility. I haven't seen that in the preprint ambit just yet. Wild fires are part of the natural order. There's bit of an irregular cyclic nature to them. There needs fuels for one. Once a region has burned... it has to refit itself. That takes successive seasons of growth and death cycles. Then, if/when seasonal antecedence sets up the favorable environment... along comes an isolate thunder clap, or PF's low rider souped-up Honda Civic being driven by a 'truly productive member of society' blaring a woofer boomin' rape rap to indifferently grind his chassis on a flinting parking lot surface ... completely oblivious, and the rest is history. There's probably a normalized distribution in time, where a region averages 1 episode for so many years...etc, when not caused by the above asshole turning into a mall for the cannabis dispensary shop... (I'm only cynical on Tuesdays) Anyway ... perhaps CC is causing, relative to region, the cyclic performance to speed up? good question

I've seen the sun down to barely discernible glowing ball from smoke at higher elevation. It was back in 2002 or 2003. I was living in Winchester, and there was a wild fire up in northwestern Quebec, and the smoke plume was narrow but exceptionally dense. It was only like 150 miles wide if that, and pretty much shut the day down to overcast shade.

Seems to be some convection calving going on upstream. Some shear, with quicker mid level flow than the instability axis producing clouds over NE NY/upstate VT, is sending a region SE that appears have been processed a little less choked.

yeah, that makes sense - just a weird situ, like Leary taking an oil lantern to the stable setting after a dry summer, in October, setting it down, and then a cow or horse kicks it over and the next thing you know ...the Great Chicago Fire back in 1871 ( so like, last year - ha). That sucker destroyed 17 thousand buildings along 70 something miles of street. Granted, 1871 proooobably had a firebox construction standard - I don't know... But that does hearken to your point about difficulty visualizing how settings make things more(less) plausible. Have to think outside the box.

Well in any case... it's not like we didn't know it was coming.

Ha ha. I was just thinking that. Like literally, 'but wait, who the hell's out there' lol

It's kind of amusing that we suffered days in the shits and it finally "clears" into a sun shut down by smoke - wah wah waaaah

Yeah ... I get it how it can happen, but that (bold) seems to be a hard sell. Slag sparks don't remain at combustion temperatures long enough to carry in the wind. Unless if fell directly on it perhaps. hm. Sometimes "accounting" can get started in equally mysterious origins hahaha. Have to validate the source I suppose. The cigarette and campfire dipshit stuff, no problem -

It may be the case ... yup. Do you have those records for the Nova Scotia region? Plus, it's a valid surmise; I just haven't heard any "official" accounting, either.

can't have both... ... or, it's less likely you will... You either dim the sun down to where we fail 5-7 F on the high. Or, you don't and you get the CAPE

strange times ... ... hard to parse out whether these are unusual, or it's that whole narrative about how technology just exposes the reality to the naive thing. So it only "seems" unusual. It's a digression ... but I'm not sure I buy that anymore.

what I thought ... but that's also a broadly defined heading, 'human activity' like a deviant shit ball for a skull with a gas can counts under that header too -

yeeeah... thought of that. But I went back and there's fires going off where there wasn't much history of that on satellite. I mean, tinder dry or not, background settings are not going to just spontaneously combust - so yeah, it has to be something. How about a 22 year old disenfranchised ugly rural Canadian hillbilly boys with gas cans and a manifold of dysfunctionally traumatic upbringing - heh I almost wonder if this eco terrorism. Haha. Unfortunately, we live in an era whence that needs to be considered.

I have a question ... has anyone heard/read of how these fires up in Canada are set? I keep waiting to hear news break about that specific and nothing.

I'd settle for any ridge in the east to satisfy the trough in the west ...like, at all - jesus. Not sure why but the large synoptic frame between the Dateline to west coast of N/A is flipped reverse around D5-7, yet the models maintain trough over the eastern Continent - like there's no forcing down stream? Not sure there ... so we're getting a PNA mode change toward a warmer signal ( with the EPO and NAO removed from contention) ... to somehow = unbalanced R-wave layout... = no warm up - okay. Seems like the models are less than organically processing to me at times. HAHA I'm wondering if/when the other shoe falls we get wholesale correction.

It's all in the indices ... as far as I can tell. The operational runs and even the ensemble means ( which the indices are based upon, which is odd ) don't seem to reflect the former. They may given time. who knows

Yeah ... I mean that should be factored.

64 ... mini spike occurred about 2 hours back when it went from ass packed to just cloudy. Actually .. there was like two, 2 minute sun splashes for the course to be fair.

It echoes the 2021 heat bomb ... not coincidentally in my mind. I don't believe the two have desperate causality. The background causing both may be of the same, in other words.

This MJO appears more coherent as it readies a move into the Phase 3-6 modes. That may have a bearing on westerly wind contamination in the lower latitudes... Back west of the "MDR" but with the La Nina dead/dying it would seem to green like the propagation into the 7-8-2 thereafter, doing so more successfully than the La Nina "firewall" was allowing it to do over previous months. That's your westerly wind burst perhaps... I dunno end of June?

It's annoying when the satellite presentation shows a cloud pattern that's become corpuscular looking, yet ... the sun is some how NEVER in between the corpuscles -

Here's a random thought ... if ( and probably when ) the cold dinner apocalypse happens ... these satellites will continue broadcasting what their cameras see of the world below ... to no one, for decades. Can you imagine if we escaped this world and became an interstellar species like Star Trek or whatever, and happened across a planet with all these satellites in orbit taking random pictures and loops of clouds and smoke over an empty world?

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration announced that the carbon dioxide level measured in May in Hawaii averaged 424 parts per million. That's 3 parts per million more than last year's May average and 51% higher than pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm. It is one of the largest annual May-to-May increases in carbon dioxide levels on record, behind only 2016 and 2019, which had jumps of 3.7 and 3.4 parts per million. "To me as an atmospheric scientist, that trend is very concerning," said NOAA greenhouse gas monitoring group leader Arlyn Andrews. "Not only is CO2 continuing to increase despite efforts to start reducing emissions, but it's increasing faster than it was 10 or 20 years ago." Nothing's going to happen until the wealthy can't eat -

Significant heat signal continues to gain coherency for post ~ 13th ...

I know this isn't what folks wanna hear around the Holidays but one of the better memories I have spanning the last 10 year's worth of Xmas' was that 2014, when it was 70 F on Xmas day and the fam/friends were enjoying the outdoors. I guess if you'e in here satisfying a pure neurotic snow/cold OCD ...such visions do not inspire the precious state, but for those of us that appreciate the fuller spectrum of weather results - it was exotically wonderful out of doors that day. 'Sides ... not without compassion, the Feb 2015 that set in some 3 or 4 weeks later was just as fantastic.