Typhoon Tip

The EPS mean might be interesting on that shortly, because its prior have been pretty tepid ...indicating almost no detection. The GEFs have a high latitude Miller B, but ... the cold in SE Canada and any would-be attending/antecedent +PP is not as good as some of the operational versions - so the prior ends up in S Ontario prior to commitment in the GOM. That's not gonna cut it for much of region... perhaps lead mix. The take away is that the signal is legit - as I've been saying for a while, I know, but it's starting to emerge in the guidance now. Nice to have this next step actually take place - it's a been a problem this season getting that to actually happen... jesus

Oh... and if that is not enough...the event out there 11 ..13th of the month is still a valid signal. Not sure what for it may take. Could be icing... I think there is reasonable shot that would be wintry in profile, given the ballast of guidance sources still think there's cold within reach N of the border... After mid month though... I wouldn't be surprised if we see that big warm up start to materialize more obviously... Things seldom work out according to organized vision ...but this month may be diametric in appeal between the first and last chunks.

Just an op ed on that... It seems to me that if the synoptics cross that threshold, the result won't stop at 60 or even 70+. Get the 576 isohypses N of ALB-BOS, with a deep layer WSW laminar flow out of west TX ... yeah I realize I've labored the aspect as of late, but the eye-popping 80 F has proven doable, in mid or latter February, three times in the past 5 years. Which lol, I realize 70+ counts.. .but you know what I mean. I think it goes full raging summer vibe, in winter, should the synoptic dam break and it warm bursts... I don't hold back, though. ha. I just call the f*n cigar a cigar, but if it's lazy flag waving 81F at Hanscom Field in Bedford on say .., it is what it is. Oh, it'd "only" 73 at ORH. And the DPs would be like 9F ... RF warning..all that, but ( and this will roll Scott's eyes - so much fun!) after about February 10 we've cross out of the solar minimum span - which begins on Nov 10 and ends on that Feb date. That's just environmentally/celestial mechanically unavoidable ...and the right feed-backs from the right sort of synopsis will make use of that solar input. I just wonder why that synoptic aspect is repeating. It doesn't seem to be tied to ENSO this or polar field that. Is it dumb luck..? I don't believe CC is why - don't bother... I mean, there could be some help there because launch pads are higher... maybe. I don't know. But in the here and now, we are crossing up Nina climo, with statically positive AO, a strengthening MJO wave between 3-6, and a recent decadal repeating signal for warm bursts... Do we need Rain- Man to predict the next card in the dealer's deck? We'll see -

Wow.... +7 to +10 are the monthly average departures for the 4 majors at NWS. It's interesting that 1,000' high ORH was the 10.3. They may cleave a decimal by tomorrow but by and large the numbers are what they are... I knew we were running warm this month, but hadn't bothered to look. That's pretty amazing actually. You know it may be a gross approach, but ... heh, if we merely return to the previous larger hemispheric dynamic after Saturday ... what would that mean for February? How would ( -said return) doing the same thing give us a different result ? If I was y'all ..I might consider that. Just sayn' Anyway, ... regardless of how February turns out, over all, it appears after review ( to me -) the the signal on the 11th/12th is legit. Regardless of what form - exactly - it should take, it's coherent in the ensembles membership, and there may even be room in - at least - the numerical telecon spread to allow that window. ...mostly in the GEFs...but the EPS may some tend.

I know ... As though in great homage to the 'best laid plans' conversation Ray and I were just having... the 11th comes back in the GFS. It's 270 so it's more for the comedy for now but this is tooth-aching sweet looking

Waiting this out before claiming victory but .. I don't personally have a problem with the event correcting that way as it nears. I mentioned this a couple of times; there's precedence for models over doing these kind of quick shot cold incursions. They are more frequently oversold ...even needing to get inside of day 5's before they start modulating down by some amount, be it 10 20 or even 30%. Eventually ...one comes along and gets us. I think 2016 may have pulled down a 95th percentile of whatever the d-drip awe looked like... ha. I mean, these models don't put out solutions that are IMpossible - they wouldn't be much use as geophysical tools if they did. My hesitation on the current theme is/was purely related to the majority cases, though. For whatever reason, in the past these kind of 'continental tuck' events have been too aggressive. Anyway, I want this at < 72 hours.. so we're nearing that deadline. We may have in fact already corrected this as much as it will - unknown.

I definitely agreed with you Scott, when you did - I recall you're statement. In fact, dig it up - don't be surprised if I pinged you back the appropriate emoji ... It's just that I guess it was like reading the recipe and thinking that sounds like the right kind of meal, but now one can really smell it cooking and it's very palatable - haha

Whereas, though I do not formally publish my season thoughts ... I do in snark sometimes proffer some obnoxious, borderline troll - but not specifically because I like to engage in that practice, just that by default, my position ( partially rooted in how I really feel) may oppose the consensus. In this case, I didn't see how this winter would be 'better' than last. I really didn't. Come hell or high water, I figured it for a forced affair with a larger clearly physically outclassing prison associate, when it comes to winter enthusiasm. People have their ways and means... but, I do admit to believing the folding/block tendency of the autumn and spring is a real aspect that is reproducible, and in between those, we have been also repeating fast flow that rips at the standard cyclone model ( in the means ) - all this as strongly motivating tendency, by all factors in mind, to recur. Ranging from those are conventional, to those that are in research. I don't bother to put this down on proverbial paper and post seasonal outlooks. I observe too much vitriol between those that advance these outlooks - it seems like doing so is allegorical to raising your hand at all on Vieques Island - a.k.a ('Lord of The Flies'). There's a petty kind of celebrity seeking competition in that space that's not really ever even going to have a very positive return - nothing anyone does in here or in social media, in the space of season forecasting is going to seat one next to a 'star' of Meteorology or in general. Ahgh... don't mind me. I'm leaning more and more into existential nihilism with age.

Lol, yeah I figured as much... But then in essence, my post more agrees with that sentiment, and the fact of lack of delivery into this region of the continent. It's brevity is sort of symbolic of losing overwhelmingly but getting a single punch in just before the bouncers carry away the cold. heh

This may only have symbolic value - not sure... - but something I've noticed in the past. When there is an advent of some extreme, ...if you are looking for it, you may notice either in aggregate or all at once, there is compensating event(s) that takes place within weeks, short weeks sometimes, that follow the dramatic departure advent. In a pure bean counter perspective that makes sense. The climate is not representative of the extreme. Something has to atone. ( otherwise ... you're climate is changing - haha) If we knife in a -3SD knuckle stinger, but it's back over 30 just 24 hours later, heading ( probably ) for a week of sustained 40s - cloud and cat paws permitting - the cold is atoned for by the following Thursday or something. It reminds me of that.

Heh... this thing's nothing as far as impact on those aspects - not barking at you just musing here... It's in an out too fast to even make an impact, really. You play a couple poker rounds at the local Elks club and sleep one off and it's back over 30.

Right - best laid plans ... LOL In this business, if 'laid' means how we take it after having implemented the most lucid rational, objective route? Sure. No, but ... yes, if I was forecasting February, I'd slope pretty significantly warmer and dryer than normal ..roughly the 10th - 20th...25th ( perhaps the rest of the way). But, I would put my probability at say, 70% ? I don't have a formal arithmetic in that number - it's more a super duper amazing sciency approach of how I 'feel' about this stuff at this time. However, I did elucidate some pretty damning reasoning ( above) so it's valid conceptually based upon that foundation.

I was/have been in this camp, too - but then it recently occurs to me, the 'under-performance' aspect was because the wave was attempting to penetrate the 8-1-2 phase spaces. This? other side - The 8-1-2 is in destructive interference with an on-going well-couple Nina ..that may have contributed to why the wave was seemingly incapable of getting through the "La Nina firewall" - jokingly calling it.. Contrasting - and this is no aver on my part...just supposition - this particular migration path through phase 3-4-5-6 is in constructive interference. One thing I know is true ... the MJO is not a pattern forcing mechanism. It is a pattern enhancing mechanism... BUT, that depends on whether it is in constructive or destructive interference as it attempts to move into down stream modes of the circulation. This being La Nina - and a well coupled one - that does lend support/confidence ...if not at least a head nod, in favor of what CPC is stating.

Yeah ... I'm just nerdy enough to be interested in that. Ha ha... But you know, there's real world concerns there. Obviously, early bud is a vulnerable state to - ironically ... - freezes. I also read an article a couple years ago when I noticed some species of broad leaf maple flipped to full color in mid September. My own "General Sherman" 300 year old sugar maple flashed over to gorgeous pastel yellow, when it normally turns air glowing saffron orange, about 1 month before typical. There wasn't really anything obviously aberrant about the climate of that preceding summer - not that I was personally aware. Apparently others took notice, hence the write.. Anyway, it explained how 2020, despite the smoke weeks of late August, was an overly proficient growth season for many tree species. Here's the explanation: once the tree blows it's carbon cycle budget for that year, it doesn't try to keep producing ... the pigmentation retreats, color results ( that's paraphrasing mind you -). I'd never heard of that, but ... if say our growing season is/was extended(ing) at a faster rate then vegetation species are adapting seems intuitive perhaps. Also, orchard crops? I have buddies in other texting circles doing the 'riveting' mid aged dad topic of lawn observation ... ( god ) ... saying that their grass never turned completely typically beige. I would also say that on one of those 50+ days over the last two weeks, I could have swore as I parked my car, a small mosquito was bouncing off my window. Someone once joked ( if not, should have) that this has been 'autumn 2022-2023' the whole way

I almost wonder ... could we be looking at an early prognostic/anatomy of another one of these historic February warm bursts. Certainly there is precedence over the last 10 years... 2017, and then again in 2020... Pretty sure there was another year where Feb hosted a party, too. I know there's also been a couple of March warm ups too. Point being, the frequency increase is noted, and looking at these present indicators et al - You know, it's not risking anyone personally to have to face the "severe" awesomely beautiful weather week - but standard deviation still claims victory. That's our greatest departure behavior during these last 10 years. I find that utter 'under the radar' - ness to be almost comical.

Heh, add CPC's take to the list: "• The MJO teleconnects well with the extratropical pattern during the Boreal Winter. An eastward propagation of the MJO from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent favors above-normal temperatures across the eastern United States during mid-February"

Distant GEFs mean beginning to parrot the Euro Weeklies for week 2.5+. They/that certainly could change, but it's something I noticed of the overnight's. Fwiw, been advertising the super position hypothesis for February ( considering its application for the whole of spring frankly ... but cross that bridge -). I happen to agree with ( I think it was) Eric Fisher's tweet last week - at least in principle. If indeed the MJO evolves through the 3-6 migration, then possibly terminating back into N/S thereafter, over the top of Pac circulation mode that the models are just aching to couple or recouple with Nina, that doesn't likely end well for winter enthusiasts. In fact, it likely ends unwell. The 3-4-5-6 MJO would be in a constructive interference with a well-coupled La Nina. Those two are a soul mate power couple on the atmospheric Zodiac ... Almost cannot result in a cold stormy eastern North America. If it did, ...it would probably be something like the 1::10 return rate rarity in doing so. We'll see.

..and maybe even a cursory evaluation of the last 50 consecutive IPCC publications could have factored into that? lol

I'd 'almost' argue the thread really isn't that constructively intended haha...

I don't think any operational run can be trusted ...even to standard error, for anything beyond the cold incursion scenario. I find it difficult to believe - for example - the GFS will succeed in having 0 order pattern markers - meaning no pattern period, on earth? It's selling high velocity chaos, which is almost impossible of the geometric sphere to do that without organization of some form or the other emerging. P.o.s. time with guidance and the others are not much better with wild continuity changes in their own rights.

That looks like someone rip-n'-read the (MJO + La Nina climo)/ 2 = another 2017 80F February anomaly. Unfortunately...the idea has merit. But, like Will's product then demos, there are conflicting signals - not to mention that product rendition above. Which I don't really have much faith in the weeklies out ECM but that's another story. I personally don't know but would still warn people ...the look above has precedence spanning the last 10 years of Februaries - or hybrid versions of that. I've mentioned this in the past...

whao .. wait a cosecant here hmm

hahaha... crickets

Feb10/11 offering some eye candy.

There is only one model that is a direct ..( or even indirect as far as I am aware - ) integration of climate, with real time geophysical processing: I provided an op-ed about that a couple weeks ago. Not sure what thread or whereupon it has been scrolled...heh, but it is the CFS model (Climate Forecast System). There's an essay/paper on it - don't have the link right handing - that explains how it is probably susceptible to C02 variances ...etc. It's base-line is 1988 ppm ( I believe it read -), and is cited as why the model tends to maintain a cool bias. Otherwise, the GFS and Euor and GGEM and UKMET and KOREAN, and ICON and Alessandra Ambrosio ...etc..etc., do not saddle their processing with climate.