Typhoon Tip

GFS is trying to set the table for a heat burst ... 580 non-hydrostats to NYC fits the telecon distribution leading and during the D10-15 range. Despite the long lead, there are some long leads that are just a wee bit higher confidence than mere noise. There's more to this than just that though - I have it in the back of my mind that these Feb-Mar-Apr bizarre "heat bursts" where temps soared to 80 or higher that early in the year on so many occasions over the past 15 years I've lost count. This is clearly an attribution issue - not going to get into it.. you believe it or you don't. But these extraordinary heat explosions began around the time that all these empirical accelerations in GW became incontrovertible. That's the case for it ... I'm interested in recognizing scenarios that host those events - but quite intuitively, they occur inside warm scaffolding. Having a every telecon there is in or accelerating into a warm mode post the 24th of the month, while operational runs have begun rolling a ridge E of 100W, certainly fits. So we'll see if this manifest in some kind of ( yet again ) absurdly early heat, or if it is just another ordinary warm episode.

I told him there's still a system there? hello - Beyond that ... I'm just being as objective as I can regarding where this system stands as as of 5:30 pm on Saturday February 17 2024. Part of the issue with my own involvement thru yesterday was that I didn't have time to study the full suite of techniques I normally use. I was heads down at work all week... But last night I had a chance and there's some pretty prevalent red flags. I can assure you, I don't sway emotionally with modeling idiosyncrasies - if that's what you mean? To wit, this is not mere nuances to overcome in guidance. There are wholesale manifold changes in the Pacific that should not be ignored if one is either in prediction efforts, or just needs their expectations to be well founded. Do with it what you like. It's up to you.

The Euro still passes at sub 990mb low between ACK and the BM, fwiw. It's just that like yesterday, it doesn't for some reason mechanize appreciable QPF on the western side. Interesting That could be the back ground negative interfering physics of a massive pattern change entering the processing. It's like the Euro's fighting it? What's actually happening is the scaffolding for a storm ( at all ) is rapidly in collapse between the 22nd and 25th. The western limb of the PNA in fact entering a -PNA construct ( robustly so, too ...) with such rapidity that the eastern limb is still vestigially carrying NW flow over Chicago where is the attempted amplification while that is happening. It's a race before a whiplash pattern sweeps the continent. I mean it is right on the heels of this. It kind of reminds me of the March 2014 storm - the one that only hit the Cape. The cold over the eastern Lakes, here and SE Canada, wrapped into it and rolled on up into the Maritime and left spring in it's wake. It was a bitter end to the year to miss the pig storm by 'that' much, only to do push-ups in mud season. So anyway ... these last 2 or 3 cycles of modeling appear to be giving into the eastward push.

This just smacks of the type of spring that will set up at 84° in Albany while it’s 39 in Boston

I echo that sentiment, Will I saw a bunch of stuff last night that made me want to close the book on this 23rd/24th scenario… I pride myself for objectivity, but I’m still not numb to difficulty garnering enthusiasm when it’s been really pulling teeth just to get two events of any worth out of an entire winter. …but we know the odds overwhelmingly favor, if not a bowling ball a couple if not several periods of Labradorian urine after what ever that warm-up entails

There’s actually some chance there won’t end up with a very organized event, either, from what I’m looking at… saw some stuff last night that made me wanna pull the plug. We’ll see. But it’s difficult for me to see how it survives both index Charlie Browning, and model amplitude —> attenuation.

It's probably the looming inevitability that July is still coming

Looks like there may in fact be a river in Egypt flowing through this social media's realm

12z ens source/means continued trend of more coherence re the 23/24th. 18z GEFs wobbling 2 mb less but ... either way is obviously negotiable at this range. GEPs may the larger relative change of all three, with a bigger gathering in emergence and strength between the prior 00z and this 12z. The EPS remains the most impressive of all three; having a pearling of members in a near coastal spread that are excessively deep 180+ hrs. This is quite impressive seeing such a high member count at that sort of range, with these kind of pressure depths subtending beneath 965 mb = not sure that is achievable without some sort of more proficient N/stream infusion/phasing. The Euro op. probably exposes those other members that are less dispersive. Tho the mean position at 186 hours (blw) is over the GOM, notice the spread back W/SW with member potency...

Well, look .... both storms happened. Not sure what to say. The threads were not ultimately wrong. Unfortunately, there's no way to tell someone in Rutland VT versus Rye NH vs Hartford CT ...who is going to eat cake and who is going to eat shit, with any sort of assurance. I was planning on starting a thread for it - but if y'all really feel some voodoo like it matters who does. In my defense, I have seen more threads started that had NO storm result comparatively - just sayn

Not trying to gaslight - you see what you see... But, from my perspective it was better than the 06z because it was more coherent. The 06z was not as deep pressure, and spread out over a larger area. You actually gain on this iteration, conceptually, because we need to get the advent of system more secure before we start divvying up who gets f*ed

yeah... it's a solution caught in 'physical emergence' if you will. The next run will be 974 but 30" LOL If this run scanned recursively back through it's solution it would probably have refined an inky CCB blog curved all the way back to Berks

HOLY mackerel on that run, huh

Like the GEFs trend on that ... now below 998 with more members substantially lower aligned along the climate route (between the BM and ACK)

In my opinion ... ... both the GGEM and GFS would be top tier events if it were not for this velocity management problem. This g-damn speed in the flow has been a canvased negative interference going back multiple years. In both these 12z renditions of the 24th potential, the models are just zipping the S/stream too quickly by and it out paces the N/stream ability to subsume/or absorb into the same wave space ... rendering the system to shear ... It's correctable from this range.. But, the speed aspect is real - that part of it is less than clear

I always do ha. too many pages, bro - I figure I'll lace my offering with inimitable charm and folks will either appreciate it, move on ... or secretly appreciate it but because they covet an ambrosia of dark spectrum issues, try to slide passive trolling under the radar - but either way, the saga goes on

Yeah, ...unfortunately marginal - but as you intimate with coherence it's not really something to grouse over at this range. The 850 mb (EPS mean) has an intense gradient couplet bisecting right through here - which is tantalizingly the spring bomb climatology thing

There's gotta be some zonked members in the EPS's 00z mean. The 500 mb height cinema of 22 - 24th certainly casts that allusion. One gets the easy impression of some big power diving over the Lakes and ending up around the Del Marva. It's probably like 2/3rds of them don't and have some other less savory or distracting type solutions in general, but there's definitely something weighting the mean enough to create this, which is (btw) a whopper signal from 200 hours out - the last time I saw a signal this coherent at this range was 2015. That said, the GEFs and GEPs are tepid by comparison. They both end up with coastal huggers ( the 06z trending away from yesterday's BTV route) , but paltry surface solutions are emerging from their mean. They do, however, cinema the 500 mb deepening spanning that time, so ... mm plenty of room for an emergence there.

about the warm up from the tail end of the month into early March: a little concerned about that evolving into a -PNA/-NAO hemisphere. A "little" we'll see. But the ens are little "hinty" of that depending on which I'm evaluating.

Very narrow on rad but vis down to 1/4 of a mile briefly with whipping blowing vortices of pulverized snow dust curling around building corners and fanning down streets here. Est about a 1/3" 28" on the on the season to very close approximation. Sun shining again ...

ICON came N quite a bit... 3-5" for L.I. but if bounces the same amount as it just did per this next cycle ...CT/RI and SE MA are in the game

https://phys.org/news/2024-02-deeply-discovery-earth-crucial-15c.html

This was torpedoing down the L.I. sound 3 or 4 days ago but has since been a D.C. Baltimore to Philly deal. The thing is ... it fits the -EPO. Very robust/ high SD negative mode up there, and the downstream coupled wave argument should nadir the flow across S/SE Canada ... which seems to support the southerly track position/correction. However, if the wave itself is strong enough it will imperceptibly favor a N tick, too. You know it's interesting that regardless of whether it's down there here or wherever that the models have had this little critter for like 9 days. LOL wow... can't buy a f'um token's worth of that kind of persistence wrt anything else - jesus christ

I almost think of 101 F in summer as the antithesis to breaking the 30" snow pack ambient depth in winter ( excluding mountainous region obviously ) It can be done ... but the return rate is pretty rare. We need a 25C 850 mb plume timed with sun up and only light WNW wind, and the ensuing rising sun shines through a pure unadulterated blue flame sky. One cirrus smear and it's game over and your 99.5 ... it's that touchy around here. That may change in CC ...I don't know

Takes some pretty succinct timing to get that combination of T and TD in our geography... We are closer to sea level, where it is harder to expand BL to the same hgt as land locked interior continental places like Iowa and Kansas. We just don't have the solar power to heat it enough at our latitude. Interior SE U.S. can do a buck-2/ 75 much easier where the solar max sun is up over 75 deg in azimuth