Typhoon Tip

It's more amusing than anything - not that you think anything more. But forgetting the outlook distance ... A 986 mb rapidly filling core passing over 55 F colder than normal shelf waters is probably barely above a breezy day ... lol Gotta love the GFS fantasies

It's their typical m.o. with "..environmental conditions are conducive," which can encapsulate a lot .. But I wonder if this emerging Cape Verdi TS and invest trigger pull might be related to the marine heat wave that's occurring over the eastern Atlantic. ...soaring to some +4 C over a gargantuan area, too.. interesting. CV season on June 15 is pretty darn early

But I also wanna say...there's some extraordinary heat signals S of 35 toward the SW and Texas in the extended... Once we shed the folding b.s. that seems to be the new spring climate ... we'll see.

Case in point ... Will's grouse has merit. This has been a recurring spring into early summer theme now, a leitmotif that began roughly 10 or 15 years ago, where we get this over-the-top "folding pattern" - what does that means? just look at the guidance means. We keep setting the table for ridging and heat, but what happens is it surges across S Canada, and below ~ 700 mb level, there's easterlies into the M/A. This pools cooler 850 mb air from D.C. to Boston for one, but it also delivers the heat of summer into Ontario and Quebec... We may see CAR with hotter afternoon readings than NYC if the models have their way... They're constructing the "fold" ... again. But there's moving deltas. The aspect above is observably true year to year,... but, it also gets over amplfied in the guidance, too. So they pick up on it and run too far. This recent trough series ( the one last weekend, yesterday and this follow-up slated to butt poke Saturday) were all modeled to be under L.I. from distance, and instead they are turning out "a little" shallower and taking a more neutral latitude transit over the region. I think this latter subtle correction tendency might make next week perhaps a little less obviously up-side-down ...

wow, more smoke

Yeah, and unfortunately this close in the standard late spring correction of model over pessimism may not work either… It seems when eying from a long way out in time … one can almost count on it. There’s always one last little turd before a pattern change. Do you know what it reminds me of ha ha. It reminds me of that scene where Leslie Nielsen hesitates, looks back over her shoulder, then steps back just to give the panicking passenger one last smack in the face in the movie airplane. we should just adopt that formally into synoptic meteorology techniques at an operational recognition. Whenever we’re looking at a pattern change you can say, don’t forget the Leslie Nielsen.

I'd even suggest that it's late ...as in taking time away from the 'the warm season' - More typically, these meanders are akin to April and May. But, there's all kinds of subtle signs of CC in the actual circulation tendencies world over. Seasonal pre and post lapsing ...smearing the transition seasons is one of them, and I wonder if the lateness above might just be one of those easily over looked attribution aspects. Attribution ( as an aside ) I think needs to be expanded as a science/inference effort et al, across a broader spectrum of events. They only go after big dawg heat /cold and storms... But as a Meteorologists transfixed to synoptics weather for so many years, we know better and there's oddities occurring. Of course, that's not carte blanche to blame every cumulus cloud on CC, and some will attempt to do so. The unfortunate reality is, however .. there are some subtler, non-impacting aspects taking place that are not part of the climate the planet is moving away from. To me, this cooler WB and warm stymied entrance ... while in tandem the current graphical trends suggest June ends the warmest ever in global history by a large margin ... may not actually be uncoupled.

Looks like we get another shot at smelling ozone in two days?

It ain’t summer. Thunder’s supposed to settle you back to 70. Not 57. That was f’n annoyingly chilly after nicking 80 not two hrs before

Need higher DPs folks

there's definitely odd nuances in the circulation handling with the GFS' mid level main synoptics scaffolding though. I am noticing that this permanent trough/closer routine it's doing ( regardless of whether there are + or - heights entering the west, nuance #1), it ends up creating a lot of murk weather from the 576 sigma level. We've had 90 F at that height. Yet the GFS using it to score 65F and easterlies like it's a goal to do that. lol Sometimes I bemuse that this weak flow pattern is exposing something the modelers are doing that is less than purely organic in their processing. haha

It’s been doing that. It’s where it won’t allow heights to rise in the east regardless of R-wave signaling/argument transmitted. ends up with this folded over thing.

This situ would be more interesting if there were higher dps

our DP actually mixed out here… It was 62 couple hours ago now it’s 57 with temperatures approaching 80

Yeah excellent location there for viewing central New Jersey’s anvil heads

With the remarkable timing of strata densely packing in from the north east late this afternoon with this back door front then, a near stationary thunderstorm south of FIT throwing up an anvil over the top, it’s been daylight equivalent to 9 o’clock here since 630. That’s how you rub in a back door bangin’. Jesus back to 63

BD pressing SW through VT into NE MA....

1.9" of snow ... we're doomed

duh - that sort of ad placement is "clearly" code for some kind of Grindr hook up - what'dya 'spect. lol

wow... what a gunked in atmosphere this slab of low level sludge is this morning. hi res vis loops shows weird boundaries separate different qualities of rhea, but limited real clearing behind any of them. It's sloshing shit around. The sun should start to work pretty aggressively to force a partly cloud hand here over the next two hours as there's no over shadowing mid or upper deck to stop the lasing. You can kind of see that tendency starting. My low was 64 - warmest so far this year for DPs too. I think tomorrow may end up with better CAPE, if one is using modeled values as the input. With such weak advection terms under this attenuating frontal mess, I bet the DPs end up modestly richer.

Ah. my respect for you goes back up a notch - I have limited toleration for anyone that personally elects for a work out that early.

You do the gym in the morning ? you're one of those. ooph

18z GFS constructs a monster heat pregnant ridge sprawling at continental scales in the D7 to 14 range. but like I said earlier… About every two cycles, these models vacillate back to these meanders aloft with cool pool instability convection.

I'm on day 2 of 80s... No complaints here. 8 days of the month were some less then optimal ... some worse. But 4 day's worth were down right summery. If we make 75 to 82 the next several days, that's pretty seasonal. It seems more and more so ... folks cannot tolerate seasonality - it has to be drama or there's something wrong. haha...

Not much continuity in these operational runs though. There's a kind of solace there in the notion that bad continuity means that what reality brings, it probably won't look like the models. It offers a likeliness that what comes around might be better or different. They've been spraying closed lows all over the map N of ~ 35 N for days of runs. Sometimes even ridging and heat... then ...two cycles later no trace.