Typhoon Tip

Well in any case... it's not like we didn't know it was coming.

Ha ha. I was just thinking that. Like literally, 'but wait, who the hell's out there' lol

It's kind of amusing that we suffered days in the shits and it finally "clears" into a sun shut down by smoke - wah wah waaaah

Yeah ... I get it how it can happen, but that (bold) seems to be a hard sell. Slag sparks don't remain at combustion temperatures long enough to carry in the wind. Unless if fell directly on it perhaps. hm. Sometimes "accounting" can get started in equally mysterious origins hahaha. Have to validate the source I suppose. The cigarette and campfire dipshit stuff, no problem -

It may be the case ... yup. Do you have those records for the Nova Scotia region? Plus, it's a valid surmise; I just haven't heard any "official" accounting, either.

can't have both... ... or, it's less likely you will... You either dim the sun down to where we fail 5-7 F on the high. Or, you don't and you get the CAPE

strange times ... ... hard to parse out whether these are unusual, or it's that whole narrative about how technology just exposes the reality to the naive thing. So it only "seems" unusual. It's a digression ... but I'm not sure I buy that anymore.

what I thought ... but that's also a broadly defined heading, 'human activity' like a deviant shit ball for a skull with a gas can counts under that header too -

yeeeah... thought of that. But I went back and there's fires going off where there wasn't much history of that on satellite. I mean, tinder dry or not, background settings are not going to just spontaneously combust - so yeah, it has to be something. How about a 22 year old disenfranchised ugly rural Canadian hillbilly boys with gas cans and a manifold of dysfunctionally traumatic upbringing - heh I almost wonder if this eco terrorism. Haha. Unfortunately, we live in an era whence that needs to be considered.

I have a question ... has anyone heard/read of how these fires up in Canada are set? I keep waiting to hear news break about that specific and nothing.

I'd settle for any ridge in the east to satisfy the trough in the west ...like, at all - jesus. Not sure why but the large synoptic frame between the Dateline to west coast of N/A is flipped reverse around D5-7, yet the models maintain trough over the eastern Continent - like there's no forcing down stream? Not sure there ... so we're getting a PNA mode change toward a warmer signal ( with the EPO and NAO removed from contention) ... to somehow = unbalanced R-wave layout... = no warm up - okay. Seems like the models are less than organically processing to me at times. HAHA I'm wondering if/when the other shoe falls we get wholesale correction.

It's all in the indices ... as far as I can tell. The operational runs and even the ensemble means ( which the indices are based upon, which is odd ) don't seem to reflect the former. They may given time. who knows

Yeah ... I mean that should be factored.

64 ... mini spike occurred about 2 hours back when it went from ass packed to just cloudy. Actually .. there was like two, 2 minute sun splashes for the course to be fair.

It echoes the 2021 heat bomb ... not coincidentally in my mind. I don't believe the two have desperate causality. The background causing both may be of the same, in other words.

This MJO appears more coherent as it readies a move into the Phase 3-6 modes. That may have a bearing on westerly wind contamination in the lower latitudes... Back west of the "MDR" but with the La Nina dead/dying it would seem to green like the propagation into the 7-8-2 thereafter, doing so more successfully than the La Nina "firewall" was allowing it to do over previous months. That's your westerly wind burst perhaps... I dunno end of June?

It's annoying when the satellite presentation shows a cloud pattern that's become corpuscular looking, yet ... the sun is some how NEVER in between the corpuscles -

Here's a random thought ... if ( and probably when ) the cold dinner apocalypse happens ... these satellites will continue broadcasting what their cameras see of the world below ... to no one, for decades. Can you imagine if we escaped this world and became an interstellar species like Star Trek or whatever, and happened across a planet with all these satellites in orbit taking random pictures and loops of clouds and smoke over an empty world?

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration announced that the carbon dioxide level measured in May in Hawaii averaged 424 parts per million. That's 3 parts per million more than last year's May average and 51% higher than pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm. It is one of the largest annual May-to-May increases in carbon dioxide levels on record, behind only 2016 and 2019, which had jumps of 3.7 and 3.4 parts per million. "To me as an atmospheric scientist, that trend is very concerning," said NOAA greenhouse gas monitoring group leader Arlyn Andrews. "Not only is CO2 continuing to increase despite efforts to start reducing emissions, but it's increasing faster than it was 10 or 20 years ago." Nothing's going to happen until the wealthy can't eat -

Significant heat signal continues to gain coherency for post ~ 13th ...

I know this isn't what folks wanna hear around the Holidays but one of the better memories I have spanning the last 10 year's worth of Xmas' was that 2014, when it was 70 F on Xmas day and the fam/friends were enjoying the outdoors. I guess if you'e in here satisfying a pure neurotic snow/cold OCD ...such visions do not inspire the precious state, but for those of us that appreciate the fuller spectrum of weather results - it was exotically wonderful out of doors that day. 'Sides ... not without compassion, the Feb 2015 that set in some 3 or 4 weeks later was just as fantastic.

Just adding in brief... there is a robust MJO signal that is emerging in strength, in model trends ... from all tool sources, and it portends to a wave space that correlates to a +AO. Not sure how that factors into the dizzying array of posted material that seems to convey simultaneous points at times ( lol..) but, I thought I'd add that to ( hopefully) confuse matters even more... j/k. But seriously on the MJO stuff. The other aspect, the dispersion mechanics at large scales - it isn't very clear to me how the MJO forcing ( or not) integrates into the boreal summer hemisphere. It prooobably does not as well as the cold season for obvious reasons. That said, the last 3 weeks seemed to align fairly well with the MJO progression over the time span... It sent a blocking signal, we have been plagued by a blocking quasi-omega ridge like feature across the southern Canadian Shield ...and everyone's happy. Seems to be trying to lag into a -NAO response, too - but I wonder if these upstream Pac/dispersion arrivals might abandon that look some. I've been watching this signal with the phase 2.5 --> 6.5 emerge and it's getting robust at this point. I think or would suggest that the "forcing" from that might not yet be "detected" in the modeling physics just yet; if/when that happens we'd see more of these warm blooms into mid latitudes - there's been an increase in model cycles that depict a June 15th + for an orientation switch as it is... Which would steepen the gradient wrt the vestigial polarward height nadir, ...speeding up the vortex --> +AO. So supposition involved there... Sorry for the lesson ...just explaining the thought circuitry -

Good op for observational science tomorrow ... Do smoke aerosols have any effect in the condensate micro-physics? -think SAL dust. With SAL, it creates an over-abundance of condensation nuclei, which too much proficiency cause the moisture to disperse among them and halts the adiabatic process. Not sure about smoke though ... There's also a 'scrubbing' question for me. Like, I wonder if a CB spreads an anvil and moves down stream, does it leave streak where's it's tunneled a gap through the smoke plume. Actually, it probably moves along with the smoke so likely not... unless the steering is differentiable/sheer per altitude.

We may actually improve conditions from the NE today... Looking at obs/sat/rad trends, there's a clear dry slot/wrap-around moving apace SW down the Maine coast that's unzipping this gunk. That, worked over by the sun ... perhaps we end up with a better afternoon? I would have "enjoyed" this stretch much more if we actually got real rain out of it. I don't think I've had much more than an inch to 1.25" since this April cut-off set up shop out there - which is okay.. but 3 or 4 would have been better. Which .. this is exactly what this has been. It's just doing it excessively late. I've seen coastals in June before. But they move right along. This stalled, murky spikes of Labrador ass vomit thing is pure April, happening about 45 days later in the climate calendar than typical. One paragraph op-ed: I think it is an indirect CC/attributable aspect. The seasonal lagging has been more prevalent in the last 10 to 15 years... It's like the new mid winter speed rage thing is "pushing" the real winter climate backward October/November ... and post-lapsing it into Mays. Hence why we've seen so many odd snow and/or snow-supporting atmospheric wave events in those respective transition months. Granted, we're not getting a snow supportive jack-shit in June. The point is ... these climate signals are being pushed ahead of schedule in autumn, and seemingly delay in springs in general.

I'm wondering if the guidance is even factoring in the smoke sort of aerosol contaminant. I mean there is hope that this shit-show has an intersession tomorrow ...with sun into western zones while at least partly cloud along the coast ... This would send T's into the low 70 on average given the thermal column. However, that smoke on vis imagery this morning is dense, enough so to obscure the ground almost entirely out there in western Ontario, and it is heading south/east... At what point does it cost temperature? The thing is, smoke aerosols are not micro-physically the same as volcanic aerosols. There absorption spectra is different ...I think on both side, incoming vs outgoing converted radiation ?