Typhoon Tip

Seems like guidance et al wants to rush the next one into contention, huh Whence Lee completes its agonizingly obvious ... by then we're already got an impressive TC possibly approaching the 'key-slot' Which by the way, Lee missed that to the NE - just sayn'

I'm not under the impression that the greater guidance envelope really saw this coming - the CB pulse routine actually tends to happen when a cane moves over cooler interface waters and is in the process of being cut off from fuel. Obviously ...it's not over marginal SST/OHE, but something ( dry air entrainment ? ) must be interfering.

The eruption that swept out of CT through outer/metro west of Boston during the afternoon, yesterday, produced some of the more frequent lightning I recall in this area for many, many years. There were overlapping flickers, with thunder cacophony that seemed to fuse into a one continuous rumble at times ... minutes in length. Really something. As the storm was winding down, the back hanging anvil was raining positive bombs, too. Some of them were once per 15 sec intervals. These were not the single loud cloud echo away variety - there were several expressions per... It's like the sound created a picture of a lightning bolt that must have been "blinking" for extended time.

It's been doing that coughing CB's routine this morning

This thing looks like it's getting pummeled by shear. Look at all the CB turrets moving from S-> N... and as that's gotten more momentous during the day ...this structural issues have come about. If that's true, not sure that was very well modeled. See? The models are wrong about something .. .lol

Nope, never did. I'm impressed for two reasons: ...the consistency from get go - many days. Picking this up at D12 and never deviating - granted, there are more days to come. Wrt tropics no less. The other aspect is a bit more abstract - this is all going on in a hemisphere where the AAM was switching from + to -, also reflected in a mode flips of both the PNA (positive) and NAO, (negative) this next week. That type of relay opens the door for trends to take place in the materialized guidance ... nope.

Telecon spread still says it's possible

If this goes on to do what the GFS general theme over the last 32 cycles ... has been unable to deviate from showing, this will be a first in modeling history that any guidance was so exactingly correct from 13 days lead ... - or whatever/how-many days it's been. That theme has not deviated enough to consider any other track - not really. Gee, we wonder if it will pull that off when it shows a coastal bomb in the winter.

Inside channel/ preview of expected 11 am track guidance ...

928 mb 140 kts

160 mph

It’s comical how that hard right has never changed in the runs now for three days while they move everything else all over the place - thaw shall not pass!

They barely do ha ha

Shrinking symmetric eye

They did exceptionally well most areas. 94+ was common

Too far west ... - if it's not ideal, total fail!

in case anyone's skipped the 'fine print' Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands. There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential impacts a week or more out.

this thread should be renamed, "anatomy of a tease job"

yeah, I was gonna say. Seems urban areas are over producing this hour. 94 here in town... DP of 75 right or wrong, it doesn't 'feel' wrong

This paragraph by NHC is all kinds of fun to read ... The question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. Many of the models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond rates normally seen with model forecasts. Both HAFS models forecast Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings the hurricane above the category 5 threshold. The NHC intensity forecast has been shifted significantly higher, but is actually within the guidance envelope. It should be stressed that internal dynamics (eyewall replacement cycles) will become a factor with the maximum strength of Lee as it becomes a major hurricane. This is almost certain to lead to fluctuations in intensity that are beyond our ability to forecast at these lead times. Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee beginning this evening and overnight, which should provide extremely useful information about Lee's intensity during the coming days.

As stated above, RI is occuring, and will likely continue today. " Nice!

Gilbert still holds the eye-candy trophy in my book. That sucker grew so large that it's areal circumvallate was the size of Texas, and at one point ...one of the extended spiral arms actually developed a new tropical depression along it's axis of flaring convection.

Bounced to almost cat 3 on the 11 am. 105 mph, 983 mb.

I heard on NPR last night that a handful of school districts around Massachusetts were on early release notice for today and Friday.

Meh ... diurnal lows have owned the ballast of our particular contribution to the global warming curve for many years. It's going to mean there are 10 this or that months - but it evades common experience when people tend to be asleep. Lol I suspect/hypothesize our predicament with that has to do with the fact that our DP temperatures have been rising along in its own curve. It's tending to thermodynamically adulterate the highs from rising as far, and then holding minimums elevated ( in the means mind you - ) per the course of the last 20 whatever years. I'm sitting here at 90 F over a 'garden DP' ( my naming convention for Wunderground sites -) averaged to 75 using the sites within a mile of this location. KFIT was 89.6 this last hour fwiw - Anyway, doing that combination at 10:4fuckum5 in the AM, on September 7 is impressive. I've seen be 95 here on September 7. In fact it was on this date that was observed, many many years ago though. I wanna say 2014 ..that far back. But the DP being both this high and in combination hasn't been previously observed since I've lived here along this part of Rt 2 - unique. I don't see any reason why that 95 can't be challenged later in the afternoon.