Typhoon Tip

I think I love summer ...but I also love big synoptic winter storms. I want those, evenly. I don't much care for winter if it is 40/20 every day in a nuclear holocaust setting -

they're responding to the sense that it is cooler than it was, being their sole trigger

heh... you're responding to 'if pixels then plug it' posters. i mean you know that anyway, just sayn' there's not much objective analytical effort there. see blue ( or red if it's the other season)? it gets pasted in -

Unlikely to verify obviously, but Jesus look at that

I suggest it is true ... At least intuitively so - a more advancing/sophisticated corroborative science not withstanding. It aligns well with faster hemispheres that occur as a result of increased gradient associated with CC. More over, this is reproducible observation, folks. I mean we spend all this time with deep statistical comparisons with mid last century longer termed teleconnectors .. trying to find secrets that no one has. Yet from what I'm reading ... no one considers CC enough and or blinking light limits that are materializing now. Can't build expectations based upon the former - not nearly as much so. I've been snarky - admittedly - in recent post with drive-by pot shots ... more for funniness that those who engage in the practice of course don't see the humor. HAHAHA. Seriously though, when joked to just take the last 10 years, average them, and call it a day for temp and precip bias expectation... mm, unfortunately there's more than a mere modicum truth to it. And the why is rooted in the gradient soaked hemisphere. When there's more non-hydrostatic lines demarcating the polar field from the subtropical field, that physically/deterministically speeds up the flow. That does a few things.. But the mains are: faster flow alters the wave frequency; telecon reliance takes a hit because though the correlations are clad, they change faster than the correlation can be realized. This casts an illusion of chaos but's really that the patterns are changing almost as fast as a cold wave synopsis gets underway ( for example), and vice versa. This is why part of the climate reporting, globally, is complaining about dramatic short term changes. It's because the increased speed of wave propagation at planetary scales. This then causes non-linear and linear resonance break down. Think of it as less positive interference. As an aside/anecdotally ( so taken with a grain - ), this is causing a gutting of the "middle class" Less standard model cyclones in lieu of weird events that gets us more or less in the range of seasonal snow - which is also a delta climate metric, so it's silly to think of seasonality if based upon 1980 ... We seem to get more 20 to 30" events making up seasonal totals though. We get nickle dimes by accident, or the big historic wild bombs, otherwise, we're yawing between deep cold and balmy thaws in less time. This' phenotype' winter has been reproducible regardless of PDO this, or ENSO that, are AMO(AO/NAO/EPO) derivatives, solar belches or opposite house birth signs. The variant behavior is dominating despite all those.

Very good 'plain English' written article containing veracious principles of Meteorology and climate, from (surprisingly) CNN source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/20/climate/summer-of-flooding

I believe we are at 3 heat waves official on the summer when now including last week? I wasn't here last week but I saw two or three back-to-back days on NWS main page with Advisory graphics. Mustn't of been too bad otherwise there'd have been more news coverage. Heat of some sort is slated synoptically for later this week. This is impressive in the teleconnectors as a short but potent heat burst potential, however... the operational guidance are interestingly suppressed with the polar jet relative to normal latitude ...draping a fast ablative flow from Montana to Nove Scotia with ample S/W's rippling along. If so, would to spark daily MCS that turn right most likely ... fabricating boundaries that disrupt what would otherwise be something more similar to the heat wave we experienced around the end of June. This is nuance in nature and wouldn't really be indicative in the teleconnector spread, which is a static -PNA through late next weekend, within which there's an impressive negative EPO interval. This shows up as cascading/digging along the Pac N/W of the continent...sending an impressive + height signal E of 100 W. The fast flow across S Canada limiting the ridge's ability to balloon to 50 N is what's stopping the heat ( potentially...) from getting E of the Lakes. It can happen and satisfy/fit inside of the -PNA/-EPO circumstance. So we'll have to see. Right now the highest heat looks to be packed back W-S of here, with perhaps more marginal heat wave conditions evolving NE of Pittsburgh - which can change..

yeah this is it. -the instagram meme i saw too. veracity notwithstanding.

Road trip to the state of "Militiagan" lost my sister and my mother in the same year recently so family reunions are higher on the kin priority these days. my company furloughed ( no work of two weeks ) anyway, so used to the time to do the 'Zoo and Lake Michigan and stuff. see fam

it's instagram, so perhaps if not likely to be untrue, but it stated boston was on track to set the 'most humid summer ever' record.

impressive rebound here. 53 to 73 in two hours

Euro’s being chintzy with the pattern but this latest GFS was a torch run

UHI working on top of AGW is meso scale harmonic feedback right there. It’s basically a synergistic heat example … scale notwithstanding

AFD yesterday was 'slow moving' but sure... I don't really look that HRRR at my loss perhaps

I think it is interesting how badly the storm motion was forecast. this things are pacing right along and they were supposed to be slow movers

`That may not be right anyway... I was snarking that based upon the AFD from KBOX yesterday that described warm core heights being that high. That's definitely not a hail risk. However, about an hr ago, a small TCU glaciated and ripped the anvil NE so there's ice up there. Which btw, they were talking about cell motions as being very slow and back building. not sure on the latter, but these CBs are tilting from velocity shear and peeling away downstream looking at this.. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

with freezing levels at 14K ? good luck

God I hope that's intended for laughs ...ya never know...

i saw that sneaky bastard too. ha

culturally it's usually provincials that put all their eggs in that one thing, after they've fed a vacation jar 5 bucks and change a day for a year. Just for that one all-inclusive cruise-line deal. ...I think don't they have 'budget cruises' with neat and tidy packages for those that don't come along with fuck you money?

we actually still touched 91 here ... 90 next door at KFIT despite the clouds. It was a 'silently remarkable' day for warmth considering there was little direct sun or none some 70 or 80% of the time. There's kind of a perhaps "bun worthy" eeriness when it's completely cloudy and 90 F, which at one moment yesterday that occurred here. it's just weird - anyway, we're probably a 1/2 hour if that away from verifying a heat wave in this part of the AFD

Under the heading of situational awareness ... Chantal's remnants are currently passing just SE of the Islands and it's influence on the synoptics this morning ... I don't think the models handled very well. ...spanning around the N-W arc there is DVM, the axis of which is right over us. NVA/DVM on the west side, outside the circulation, is not atypical as TC's rise in latitude. You can also see that influence on the vis loop as cloud decay and deep blue skies opened up. MET and MAV machine is OV and yet there are few of any clouds at all at 50 miles of sky in all directions. This is a still-air bake we are in for this morning as a result. Through a high launch pad and DPs very think in the sounding. Yuck. ..until the convective temperature is reached, these obs and trends suggest we don't have cloud shade. And little or no air movement to offer those little moments of ah ventilation. go above machine for highs. It's 86 here at 9am, am MET FIT is 89-ish for a high.

models appear to smear the remnants of Chantal along and S of that gradient