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Kevin Reilly

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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly

  1. Kevin Reilly
    I am not getting excited about that it's not even close to snow really for the I-95 crew but a week away the winds are coming right out of the east and in some cases east-southeast may want to gander at the water temps this thing needs to be further east and northeast.
  2. Kevin Reilly
    I mean I have been saying for days and months how warm the oceans are this is the result! Dumping warm air into the oceans... water takes longer to cool down then the land so maybe we have a shot in February or March?
  3. Kevin Reilly
    Gotta be all rain as you know the water temps in Sea Isle to Delaware Bay is running 47-49 or so.
  4. Kevin Reilly
    I am sure you will have another chance to be knocked in the nuts I am not believing but hey 81 hours out! It's like waiting to see if you football team will make it to the playoff with a win and needing 4 other teams to lose to get in. I think I am also pulling my $20.00 bet as it is too rich for my blood in the warm progressive pattern.
  5. Kevin Reilly
    Umm we just had a down pour with small hail and a rumble of thunder was this supposed to happen tonight??? Looks like to me we have a little chaos in our pattern I like that as a start to something different coming this time next week. Hmmm or possibly sooner come Sunday / Monday??
  6. Kevin Reilly
    Hmmm my first initial thought was to keep it conservative like $20.00 lol. I am sure if we did this especially this year we would fail knowing the track record.
  7. Kevin Reilly
    I will put $ on Euro/eps/gefs
  8. Kevin Reilly
    Didn't someone say they wanted to move to North Carolina not too long-ago LOL! Come on now we know better we all know where this will be in 4-5 days.
  9. Kevin Reilly
    Sounds like the models are in chaos to me which is better than nailing down a Cutter to Hudson bay all solutions are on the table LOL but that is the reality. Wiggum rule though could it be?
  10. Kevin Reilly
    All about wind flow off the warm Atlantic or Gulf death to snow chances around here. near 60 degrees at Cape Hatteras and still in the mid and some places upper 70's in the Gulf. The oceans Pacific, Gulf, and Atlantic right now are wrecking our snow chances and the wind flow off of those warm bodies of water. We need a plunge of arctic air to create the monster storm I suppose.
  11. Kevin Reilly
    Yep, what we have been battling for a bit a progressive pattern understatement really. Nothing can lock in whether it is the cold precipitation holding on and waiting for the cold to crash in.
  12. Kevin Reilly
    So, a 33% Chance. So, you are telling me we have a chance!!
  13. Kevin Reilly
    I would think that warmer SST's in the oceans would cause a warmer air mass overall and also a much more progressive pattern not locking in cold to produce your "normal" wintertime snowfall.
  14. Kevin Reilly
    Here are some pictures from Niagra Falls NY. The first picture was exactly 7 days ago. The second is from today.
  15. Kevin Reilly
    Here are some pictures from Niagra Falls NY. The first picture was exactly 7 days ago. The second is from today.
  16. Kevin Reilly
    Your best shot is most likely Niagra Falls / Buffalo area all you need is a good wind flow over a warm lake and presto you have 70+" an event November to December just bring a good survival kit.
  17. Kevin Reilly
    Yep February 11th, 1983, that was a fun storm 22" 40-50 mph winds 5–8-foot snow drifts and thunder and lightning! I think the very next day the big melt off began though.
  18. Kevin Reilly
    Go to urgent care if you can they test for everything. These things are rampant right now: RSV Strep Throat various variants of Covid 19 Flu You most likely have one or possibly two of these things. I have been seeing it for weeks as a teacher and can only imagine it is worse now during and after the holidays. Hope you feel better in the coming days and hopefully an Eagles win tomorrow can boost your spirits!
  19. Kevin Reilly
    Yea the only problem is it's one run here and there. Our luck it most likely will find a way to fail.
  20. Kevin Reilly
    As modeled and not the final outcome most likely but that would likely produce a sloppy inch or two in Media Delaware County rain to snow.
  21. Kevin Reilly
    Jerusalem and Egypt is next
  22. Kevin Reilly
    This rule of warm followed by snow is very true in February and March. I'd like to call it the Baroclinic Zone Rule. Keep on shoving the Baroclinic Zone east and southeast you are bound to hit kind of like playing the lottery. Oh, yes and I will take my chances.
  23. Kevin Reilly
    Maybe it seeing thick fog over water bodies northern Chesapeake Bay Susquehanna Havre De Grace northwestern Delaware Bay and up the Delaware River SE pa as very warm air rushes north just above the surface over relative cold.
  24. Kevin Reilly
    Well, someone did say the Pattern would produce!! At least we got something. Back to the drawing board.
  25. Kevin Reilly
    Media Clouds thining a bit winds gusting past 40 mph temp back down to 12 what the hell did another trough / front come through??
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