Kevin Reilly

Totally Agree look at my comment from earlier: What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv

What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv

What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv

I do 100% agree with this

Models at 0z= The Great Divide!! This threat has begun to lose traction. I am 95% sure we have a solution here in 24 hours

I probably should have said the Walt Whitman!

90% that the Euro will follow suit. All these models vs the King no it’s not going to work out. I’m not staying up for the Euro. Those poor souls in the Mid Atlantic Forum are probably standing on the ledge of the bridge looking down at the Potomac!! I mean did anyone seriously think 20”+ was going to happen.

This is what I said at 10 on another site: I hate Miller B storms I have seen us get screwed many times!!! I’m still concerned about a progressive flow that doesn’t slow the storm down to develop or a combo progressive flat zonal flow it can still happen. I think IF this were to happen we start seeing a backwards trend starting at 0z into 12z tomorrow. The big runs start Friday IMO. sounds like the primary is too far north and block doesn’t hold the warming off the ocean and south welp it’s probably the likely out come now. I never trust storms rolling off the Pacific and cruising across the country towards a block that’s lifting out. Opens the door to the warm surge!!

It may be right too?? These models may be showing the block breaking down the flow too progressive and the storm develops too late and gets whisked out to sea. It is plausible.

I bet the Euro lies between the GFS and Ukie and Canadian just a hunch.

Yep agreed mainly sleet probably and graupel. Wonder if there would be convective bursts you can tell I can’t wait for the high resolution dynamical models. I’m holding my expectations for now in check.

Any worry about warm air surging in from the SE ocean water temps about 60 miles out pretty toasty. I mean the storm is sitting there with an easterly component and the high up north is losing its grip as the block breaks down. If I am Delaware River east and southeast this screams warm air off the Atlantic with a changeover.

The new normal for winters

Lol it is a comeback winter all last year at PHL 0.7” we got 6.3 and 2 traces so far! Yes, I know I know not what we want! We want more and seasonal norms are 19.0-22”

Wouldn't it be something if Dr. No Trends north with the TPV up north too like the CMC and all the other modes at 0z tonight adjust everything north it may happen?

To help keep me sane I’ll expect a step backwards with a 967 mb low leaving South Carolina.., but for real the solutions that show sub 980 mb lows are most likely wrong without the flow amplifiying along the east coast. Reality will most likely be a continued east moving quasi Souther slider at 990 to 997 mb leaving just south of Virginia Beach. Don’t they often say the latitude a storm enters on the west coast that’s the latitude it leaves on the east coast. Not sure where I heard that before but I’m guessing only if the flow is zonal or almost zonal.

Wondering how much though is sleet vs snow?

Heat Island Effect / Global Warming / Climate Change rule our winters now welcome.

Sleet

Lol well that would in effect ruin the entire run as storms strength movement and baroclinic zones affect each other.

In the GEFS we trust!! It’s been solid No?

Sounds like an early March Storm

And we are usually cold in a -AO -NAO set up wonder why that is?

Like Toy Story heading into the inferno incinerator.

This is still pretty good at this lead. What do I take away the promised timeframe is here and we track that’s about it for now. What else could we want over the last year?