Kevin Reilly

See forum south reporting snow mixing in now so column even down there is cooling. I’m watching that area coming up 95 from Baltimore should be here soon looks fun!

You do see what’s coming up from Baltimore and SW of Washington?

Crazy Media is 3.1” you are only like 2 miles away lol we have snow sleet mixing in at times lots of mangled flakes.

Media Delaware County 50/50 mix of snow and sleet 24 2.8”

Media Delaware County Partly Cloudy where it is clear its crystal clear! 25 dew point 6

Absolutely will change from a Watch to a Winter Storm warning probably for 4-8" in lower SE PA with some sleet and freezing rain too to be thrown in to cover the uncertainty of the warm layer at 5000 to 7000 feet.

Let's stop the hedging and just get right to it here. Areas along I-95 if no warm layer at 5,000 to 7,000 feet 6-9" if there is a warm layer we are looking at 3-4" with a flip to sleet 1-2" of that possibly followed by 0.10-0.20" of freezing rain depending on the warming aloft. I would at this point lean more towards a 50/50 mix of all the models and go with the 3-5"+ idea. So. We are almost at the point of letting it play out. Obviously less south and east into coastal New Jersey and south in Delaware.

Bingo!! Love your analysis!! So the only conclusion I can draw is the slow bleed of warmth off the Atlantic warm waters further out transport west bound then slowly north bound.

You forgot the light rain at the end sun coming out and a rainbow true at least in Delaware County.

totally agree I see. I see the same thing down this way then in relation to elevation where the Airport 95 Corridor see nothing but go up into NW Delaware County points north and west you see more. I am not expecting many problems at all down this way into Central Delaware County.

However remember cold air in these situations gets trapped in the valleys. The lower you are the worst the ice will be, but you also have to be further north into where the cold air is hanging on.

I don’t know I’m having a hard time buying all liquid no frozen Monday into Tuesday I bet things trend SE starting tonight. That storm sliding down the west coast is taking the long way to get here and with below zero air to our west it will be interesting to see if the cold air sloshes east as the storm down south moves east. Guess the key is that SE ridge popping in reaction to the cold air diving South through Texas. Does the jet make a right hand turn east zonal cutting the warm air off from riding north?? I’m interested to see how this plays out. Guess I’m going on cold air is heavier and denser than warm air theory and we aren’t just going to scour out surface cold do fast. I mean it’s 25 here now and our high was supposed to be 30 temps fell all days with light rain.

There is no chance of that however the driveway sidewalk is now an ice skating rink 25 here light rain

Just out here in Media some areas of the driveway ice skating rink other parts just wet so think but it’s continuing to freeze 26 here with light rain.

I think so my driveway is getting icy last hour I’m 3.3 miles north of Wallingford

Media Delaware County 26 humidity 63% dew point 14 wind NE steady light freezing rain all surfaces caving to skating rink especially those that wouldn’t be affected by any at all sun we are losing that now though.

Yes of course Elliott Abrams!! When he retired my listening to KYW fell 80%!

Don’t look at the 0z gfs then.

This storm was amazing in NE Philadelphia where I lived Tabor Road and Adams Avenue off of Roosevelt Blvd picked up 22.7" with 8 foot drifts in the driveways between our row homes. Yes, I was out in it loving it when I was 9 years old. I remember being out when the lightning flashed and heard the low rumble of thunder with 2-4" snowfall rates an hour complete with grauple. There were multiple flashes of lightning and thunder during that storm very dynamic. My trusted weather forecasters this night was Jim O'Brien and Herb Clark. 1983 was a sad year as this storm would be the last big one that Jim would cover!! God Bless Jim O'Brien and his family he no doubt fueled my love and passion for the weather! Jim Obrien's Crusin forecast - YouTube

Wow so the Blizzard of 83 was only a 1004 mb low??? With all that dynamics.

Media Delaware County Total 24.6"

now very light snow in Media 32

Well gotta check since we live along the Baltimore Pike Corridor: Nothing yet here in Media Delaware County Cloudy 32 humidity humidity 61% dew point 22 very light east wind.

No Way!! Gotta be Sleet!

I am from the northern Mid-Atlantic about 7 miles north of the PA/MD/DEL line but what I am seeing is the models bouncing a bit due to the boundary that the storm is going to ride along including a bit of push from the cold up north (confluence). Now I am in here often because the knowledgeable posters are awesome!! At some point though with the deep cold on the northern edges we are going to have to start talking about snow ratios. It has been mentioned a few times but up here on the border southern PA I am hoping for the .35 liquid with 18-22 degree temp to produce my 4-6" of snow+. I do have a feeling though that the end games bring things north it's been happening all year now. We shall see.