Kevin Reilly

It’s just not that simple yes ridge to the east and trough to the west but there’s an upper level low setting up in the Mid Atlantic states that could have implications on the final track of Henri.

I’d be concerned about the tug west of Henri there’s an upper air low down south of me in southern PA awful lot of rain poised to come in here right now from the southwest. That upper air low will tug Henri west to the coast making the left hand turn.

Looking at water vapor map Henri is getting into some very favorable conditions right now and is still moving west there is a trough approaching from the west towards the East Coast that should turn Henri north bound probably tomorrow but how far west can he get first will be interesting. Now also there is an upper level low diving SSW across the central Great Lakes that will be the feature that would or could hook Henri to the west. All the players are on the table now it is just a waiting and timing game. What is very clear from the Water Vapor map presentation is it is all systems go where Henri is right now and he is clearly strengthening.

I am in Philadelphia forum but the water temp at ACY Atlantic City is 79 degrees and 83 in and around Cape May and Delaware bay thanks to persistent south and southeast winds due to Fred passing by to the east and the WAR building west over the past few days.

And what would that be?

Here in Media Delaware County picked up 0.44" overnight. we have 1.94" for the month of August so far. As of 10:50 pm while I was passing by Chester Creek was pretty high to about banks at Middletown Twp. Ridley Creek was at bank full at Media along Knowlton Road and Crum Creek was below bank full at Beatty Road in Springfield. All creeks were moving pretty swiftly and all brown.

So far in Media Delaware County today Partly Sunny a trace of rain last hour. High today was 90 highest wind gust 22 mph. Currently 84 dewpoint 74 breezy fast moving clouds moving due north.

That would be the Gulf Stream currently though the models do not show Henri getting that far west if so it would be a very close call for most of the East Coast Outer Banks to New England.

When do we start taking note of Henri trending further west with some runs. I mean 2 days ago this was 450+ miles out to sea. Now the HMON has the center 20-30 miles east of NJ with bands getting as far west as Eastern Pennsylvania.

Looks like that came a smidge west too

Yikes 970 mb wow this is still 4.5 to 5 days out too that’s an eternity in the tropics when it comes to track and intensity. A troubling item also that’s there is no strong front trough coming to the East coast actually the WAR builds west on this run.

Henri will be very interesting to track the East Coast is pretty open without a strong trough coming in from the west. There is a pretty good blocking area of high pressure off of the New England Coast for days and that would appear to be a key to where Henri goes. Pretty much a east southeasterly flow pointing up along the East Coast this week into the weekend. It's interesting I do remember a few GFS runs last week showing this system making a run to the Carolina coast then blocked up the coast last week.

Quite impressive considering where we were just 24 hours ago wow!! The only inhibiting factor to me is the dry air punching northeast in the southwest quadrant. All in all it does have a chance to become a minimal hurricane in the next two to three hours before it encroaches on land and feels the land effects.

GFS really strengthens Fred down to 983 mb at landfall that is pretty dramatic should be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Yep take a look at the water vapor map Gulf is and Atlantic open for business to our south the pipeline is lining up and heading Northeast with Fred embedded in the flow to boot too.

The moisture is already returning. High 84 here today the dewpoint got as low as 50. Current dewpoint back up to 58 and winds switching around light to the east northeast. On Water Vapor map you can see the moisture waiting in the wings south of DC out to the Ohio Valley all the way south to the Gulf Coast all of this is heading in this direction as an upper air low and trough digs down through Saint Louis. We will have to track what becomes of Tropical Storm Fred's moisture field over the next few days as the flow is south-southwesterly.

Well Shear strikes again. Truly looks like an El Nino set up with the string of upper air lows out there dotting from Florida out to the Leward Islands.

Yes a weaker system would slide west

It’s a bit frustrating watching some weather outlets continuing to garner as many ratings as they can in regards to Fred! This system should be declassified it’s an open wave and most of the weather around it support a few passing clouds a shower with partly sunny conditions. I mean we are tracking a 1013-1014 mb low that’s a weak high pressure system. Between the over hyped 90L the first to be Fred candidate and now this system it’s all ratings and clicks to me. Now I’m done bantering! It’s dangerous to be overhyping because when the “real” storm comes no one will take it seriously since all you are worried about but ratings and clicks! There is something else that has caught my eyes outside of Tropical Storm Grace. I have circled a system moving SSW not too far from Bermuda. The models off and on had this system so it’s worth keeping an eye on it in addition to Grace. The only limiting factor probably will be shear as a cold front and associated jet head off the mid Atlantic coast. It will be interesting to see if this system ducks under the trough heading off the Mid Atlantic and heads for the Carolinas. Unfortunately cannot upload my pic but check out the visible satellite near Bermuda.

Once again these systems are running west into a string of upper level lows from Florida to east of the Bahamas shear is the main issue. Again this Atlantic set up with these upper air lows and abundant shear looks an awful lot like a weak to moderate El Nino pattern instead of La Nina to me.

Fred is no big deal shear will keep this weak. I’d be more concerned with 95L than Fred.

However that is just what is happening on the surface. You cannot ignore the dry air and shear around.

That has been the trend too after Elsa with this hurricane season. The last robust naked swirl we tracked made landfall near Saint Augustine. This hurricane season is more and more reminding me of the 2009 hurricane season. That year we were developing a weak to moderate El Nino just interesting as we head forwards here. I know the data shows a redeveloping La Nina though.

Fred leaving NW islands of Hatti but is struggling. Dry air and westerly shear due to upper level lows one to its northeast and another northwest near Florida both of these upper air lows and sheared environment dropping out of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should keep Fred from much redevelopment over the next 24-36 hours.

You’re kidding right???