Kevin Reilly
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Picked up 0.01" here in Media from that dying round of thunderstorms a bit of breeze with that to 20 mph and out. That ought to do it storm total here in Media 1.25" from the Hurricane Henri Upper Level Low set up. So far for the month of August 3.24" of rain total. -
Henri rain total here in Media Pennsylvania 1.24" last 24 hours. Today's high 90 dew points hanging 70-71 with a brisk WNW wind to 15-18 mph. Waiting for the thunderstorms moving ESE around what is left of Henri.
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If I’m looking at things correctly Henri is a bit off track looks further west-southwest and getting shoved southwest towards NE Pa
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NYC must be under water! It will rain here again tonight as everything collapses south then southeast.
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Steady rain falling here in Media Delaware County 0.82" so far. It looks like the rain band is shrinking. Strange set up looks like the southern portion of the band is lifting north at like 5 mph and then where the back edge of the band over the area moving north you have individual segments ripping off and moving SSE. I am guessing this is in response to Henri getting further north of us an the Upper Level low collapsing a bit.
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That all looks an awful lot like the hrrr model run from this morning boat load of moisture heading due west
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Had a few sprinkles here in Media so call it a trace. We had a double rainbow right at sunset.
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Looks like some kind boundary moving slowly wnw through Delaware up into South Jersey some heavy rain along that. Almost comes across as a sea breeze front moving inland.
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That’s an impressive satellite presentation clearly see abundant moisture getting pulled away from Henri moving straight back NW towards Jersey SE and E Pa the moisture train is on quite a conveyor belt.
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wow almost looks like Henri looking at rainfall distribution splits in 2 pieces in one eases off to the east-northeast and the other moves west-northwest didn’t Remnants of Fred kind of do that last week as it approached Pittsburg?
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Hmm if only this were winter this would be quite the norlun trough
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That looks like it’s heading on off to the northwest guess that’s the reason for the flood watch today and tonight into tomorrow
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We take! Lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021082100&fh=0
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Looks like some west-southwesterly shear now attacking Henri it’s beginning to feel the trough not sure if the shear from the west is temporary.
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Looks like some west-southwesterly shear now attacking Henri it’s beginning to feel the trough.
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Looks pretty clear the difference is the western models like the icon HMON Ukie and some Nam members are picking up the upper air low capture and the GFS misses the upper air low capture because it’s too far east. wonder if the models are latching onto the correct circulation with Henri think the low level and the mid level circulations still are not alighned and are still separate for now causing tracking problems.
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So scorecard: Icon and ARW and are a left hook into NJ and affect our area while the NAM and GFS are 350 miles further ENE makes total sense now.
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Umm yea wow that’s a problem lol guess we shouldn’t let our guard down
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Currently at 995 mb so too weak
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Pretty far west I’m sitting at 75 west here in Media Delaware County Pennsylvania 13 miles wsw of Philadelphia.
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It’s just not that simple yes ridge to the east and trough to the west but there’s an upper level low setting up in the Mid Atlantic states that could have implications on the final track of Henri.
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I’d be concerned about the tug west of Henri there’s an upper air low down south of me in southern PA awful lot of rain poised to come in here right now from the southwest. That upper air low will tug Henri west to the coast making the left hand turn.
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Looking at water vapor map Henri is getting into some very favorable conditions right now and is still moving west there is a trough approaching from the west towards the East Coast that should turn Henri north bound probably tomorrow but how far west can he get first will be interesting. Now also there is an upper level low diving SSW across the central Great Lakes that will be the feature that would or could hook Henri to the west. All the players are on the table now it is just a waiting and timing game. What is very clear from the Water Vapor map presentation is it is all systems go where Henri is right now and he is clearly strengthening.
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I am in Philadelphia forum but the water temp at ACY Atlantic City is 79 degrees and 83 in and around Cape May and Delaware bay thanks to persistent south and southeast winds due to Fred passing by to the east and the WAR building west over the past few days.
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And what would that be?
