All about wind vectors, density push of cold to the north southbound , oh and sun angle makes an impact at around 9:30 am onward to about 3:30 pm. Warm ground surfaces will also impact I’d think especially the closer to metro areas and 95 you go.
I think this is exactly what I’m thinking along 95 sleet freezing rain minimal switching over to rain. I’ve seen this song and dance before after record breaking challenging warmth. Think 95 areas up to 15 miles west of it in southeastern pa is okay. This has 31-35 rain written all over it just north and west of 95 with very little ice accretion.
I think for the southern zones south and east of a line Pottstown to Doylestown back to York this is much more realistic of what to expect. I-95 south and east not much if anything just north and west of 95 very minor north and west of West Chester to Plymouth Meeting to say Bristol to Trenton the problems begin. Lancaster to Reading to Allentown points north yikes.
Media Delaware County 32 very light snow. 2.2” mainly on the grass exactly what I’d thought this would be like nothing on cement or paved a few coatings here and there otherwise just wet elevation 335 feet.
Looks like the band keeps edging further NW away from 95 which makes more sense getting away from the river and closer to the fall line. Elevation is going to play a role here with the lower levels especially early on in the event.
I like the orientation and definitely further NW guess that all sinks southeast in time and intensifies dumping 4-8” with temps in the mid to upper 20’s! Okay wait I’m awake now from the dream it’s the winter of 21-22
That has been the theme all year under La Ninia why should it change now. We have had a progressive flow with limited blocking and every once in a while, the PNA throws us a bone so that the development is just close enough to the coast. I really don't see the progressive pattern changing going forward. We are at the hands of the PNA out west. I am not saying it cannot snow just need a coastal runner with the correct timing. I do not think winter is quite over yet.