Kevin Reilly

sure about that colder = more = ratios

This model has been very good now let's see how it does tranitioning from warm and wet to cold and snowy!

It will correct in time it's really 1-2'.

Sky is lightning up here orange and blue and red not sure what is going on. This is off to my east. Maybe a tree came down and there are power explosions in the general direction of Springfield Delaware County. There is some wind out there but I don't think enough to bring power lines or trees down so maybe a loose tree came down don't know?

Yea but that event had no "real" cold air locked in and it just vanished as the high way up north quickly left this is a different scene now.

Umm while I see the totals they would be a bit higher no with a higher ratio snow so we may play that opposite game instead of the rain snow line. I think I would much rather play less liquid gets you more snow due to higher snowfall ratios with temps in the 20's and then inject more moisture later for the 1-2' snowstorm we have done this before think Presidents' Day 2003.

Did you say we need a northwest trend around here LOL we do very well with that this final solution will be in central PA. (Edit will be right where we NEED IT!)

You forgot to put the digital blue on the maps??

3.02" here power stayed on went off for about 30 seconds winds gusted past 55 mph at times.

We picked up roughly 1" in like 15 minutes with that line.

Winds behind that line are not nearly as strong maybe 15-20 which is like nothing to what we were seeing.

2.97" of rain here as that line has now passed through here. My weather station was blown down!

Line went through Torrential Rain sump pump going off for a 7th time in last hour. The wind with the line was an abrupt switch from South to SW to WSW Winds 35-45 gusts to 50 with the drenching rains. I am going to check the rain gauge now.

56 dewpint 54 pressure 29.01 falling winds have routinely gusted past 55 mph lots of sirens power flickering off and on numerous power flashes 2.34" of rain.

I am sure that the winds are mixing right down to the surface. 55 degrees here Winds SSE 35-45 gusts to 55 humidty 96% dewpoint 54 pressure 29.11 falling 1.76" of rain an hour ago.

Moderate to heavy rain 51 humidity 96% Dewpoint 50 wind ESE 20-30 gusts to 40 now. 0.66" of rain so far and coming down windblown.

It does not help that there is a 40+ degree water body nearby the Great Lakes even if more local as compared to the issues we have from the Atlantic Ocean and even the Chesapeake Bay.

Light Rain 37 humidity 81% Dewpoint 31 pressure 30.10 falling Wind ENE 9 mph total rainfall so far 0.03"

Kiss that snowpack good bye!

How did the space "Spire" Model do in the past snow event just for scoring reasons?

That storm Saturday is a repeat of today possibly stronger due to the fact todays storm is a 978-980 way out in western Michigan. Saturdays storm 978 at Erie much closer to us. Heavy rain high winds and severe thunderstorms ⛈

That as modeled by the space model would be a HECS

Got to get though the two super soakers and wind machines first. At this point I am starting to wonder which storm is more impactful today's storm or Saturday. I mean 978 mb storm in NW PA is no joke for here when it comes to heavy rain, strong winds, and probably severe thunderstorms.

That looks like a clear arctic boundary on the models. Some of our biggest snowstorms love to develop along arctic boundaries. That is a very stout 1051 mb high building south out of western Montana diving down to Texas and Louisanna that will really raise the heights along the East Coast maybe we can get something to develop near Jacksonville Florida or the NE Gulf to move up the coast. We likely will know very little until the cutters and the baroclinic zone they leave behind decide what to do in regard to the next cold push and storm development.

I would think that pops a ridge out of the Gulf of Mexico.