GaWx

Relative ONI, which adjusts ONI based on average global tropical SST anomalies. Right now those are so warm that RONI is over 0.5C colder than ONI. The equivalent RONI is down to ~-0.7, which is weak Niña.

But we’re already weak Niña per RONI.

My ACE forecast that day at another BB’s season contest (it’s still there) was 176. That was based on CSU’s April ACE forecast ending up 34+ too high when they were very aggressive with ACE per the analysis I had done that I just linked too. They predicted 210 in April. 210-34=176.

Here is fwiw a copy of some excerpts from a post I made on 4/7/24 regarding the extremely bullish April CSU forecast: “I see a pretty clear pattern when they’ve gone very active in April: 2. NS days: They’re predicting 115. Prior to this the highest they predicted in April was 85-95 (four times). All four of those progs ended up too high. The highest actual of those four was only 58 and they averaged a whopping 40.5 too high! 3. # H: They’re predicting 11. The prior highest predicted in April was 9 (six times). All of those 6 progs ended up too high by an average of 3. 7. ACE: They’re predicting 210. The prior highest predicted in April were 160-183 (five times). Of these five, all progs ended up too high with even the closest still being 34 too high! The five averaged a whopping 85.8 too high! Conclusion: If I were a betting man, I’d short CSU’s April ‘24’s forecast overall, especially NS Days, # H, and ACE.”

Do you still collaborate with Keith Allen? I still remember you regularly talking about him and many folks here were thus always eagerly anticipating your posts passing along his thoughts.

The Tropical Tidbits CFS graphics are much more realistic imho: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024082700&fh=6

Even if ONI doesn’t get down into weak Niña, RONI almost certainly will be hanging around that area as it already is likely in the -0.6 to -0.7 area and the SOI has turned to solid + recently. RONI could still get down to moderate Niña. MEI also should be Niña if we can keep the SOI +. GEFS is forecasting strong trade winds/solid MJO MC as I assume you know. All of this should support nice cooling in 3.4.

Aleutian ridge is as you know the opposite of what correlates best to a cold winter in SE US, an Aleutian low. Last year many of us E US folks in the El Niño thread were so excited about all of the forecasts for a mean of a solid Aleutian low. A significantly warmer and drier winter is most likely on the way down here vs last winter’s NN to slightly AN. But winter is still my favorite season! And regardless, there are almost always a few cold snaps.

8PM TWO from NHC: Central Tropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system by this weekend into early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

15/9/4

Surprisingly to me, today’s Euro Weeklies had no uptick in the mean ACE progs. These are based on today’s 0Z extended EPS. Had they been based on today’s 12Z instead, I’m confident there would have been an uptick. They stayed the same for weeks 1-3 and had a slight down tick for week 4. Regardless, the maps showing the areas with enhanced chances of TC strike suggest for weeks 3-4 (9/9-22) the highest chance in and near the SE US for any run since I started following these daily. Also, week 3 has the highest chance of any run for the corridor SE to PR.

I’m currently thinking 2/3 chance of a TCG by next week. Due largely to this AEW, I expect the first uptick (as long as I’ve been tracking this daily) on the Euro Weeklies, especially for the week of 9/2-8. Probably some uptick on 9/9-15 as well just due to the end of this.

12Z EPS: notable uptick in members active with this E Atlantic AEW vs earlier runs.

12Z Euro: from main AEW being tracked has a TS just SW of PR moving WNW at 240 hrs

But it would still almost certainly end up a weak to borderline moderate Niña for all practical purposes including on RONI.

Regarding the AEW/activity in the far E ATL on the 12Z runs: 1. ICON at 180 has a TS at 19N/59W moving WNW aimed N of the Leewards. It has had a sfc low from this since the 12Z 8/23 run. 2. GFS has it but doesn’t develop it til it gets to the Gulf on 9/9. It then ends the run as a H just offshore from Apalachicola, FL, about to landfall near there. 3. GEFS: active like 6Z with the lead wave along with some members developing the followup MDR wave. 4. CMC: has a weak reflection of this same AEW at the surface (stronger than 0Z run) that moves WNW to S Bahamas at 240. 5. UKMET: no TCG 6. Euro: not out yet

1. Agreed it will very likely be closer to avg on Sept 1. However, the 3 main 0Z ensembles as well as 6Z GEFS agree that the highest concentration of members with a TCG is in the MDR 45-60W between 8/31 and 9/3. Overall concentration looks a bit higher vs most earlier runs. This is pretty close to when/where 23 AI-Euro runs in a row had TCG as well as TCGs on recent ICON runs. Chances seem pretty good for the next TCG during the first few days of Sept. even though the AI-Euro ironically abandoned its near Leeward Island TCG two days ago. So, we’ll see. If there is a TCG then when considering the near record warmth in many parts of the W basin, that would have the potential to be a big ACE producer. Unfortunately, it could threaten the CONUS. I’ve been enjoying the lowered stress resulting from this recent quiet. The party may be over. We’ll see. 2. I believe that this season will end up backloaded as well as concentrated in the W part of the basin due to less favorable conditions in the E basin due to a variety of reasons, some unknown.

Lol, we were both posting about ATL Niña at same time. I think that this combo of factors (ATL Nino, record warm higher latitude ATL warmth, and other factors including unknown) along with considering the near record warm Caribbean/Gulf, the Pacific Niña, and history/analog seasons suggests two things to me to likely occur: 1. Most intense activity/most of remaining ACE will be in W part of basin. 2. A tendency toward a backloaded season

This and other possible factors have been discussed heavily in recent days over at that favorite other BB. The quick answer is that nobody really knows as there’s disagreement even among pro-mets but that it is probably a combo of factors, some unknown: 1. Your link is referring to an Atlantic La Niña. The record cooling refers to the fastest cooling on record (back to 1982) in the E Atlantic along and near the equator. Keep in mind that on a RONI type of basis, the level of cool there is probably ~0.5C cooler than what the following graph shows. The graph shows something akin to the Pacific ONI, which doesn’t take into account very warm surrounding tropical waters. Anyway, it cooled from Mar to July from an Atlantic Nino +1.15C anom (~+0.65C on RONI type of basis) to on the border of Atlantic Niña -0.5C anom (~-1.0C on RONI type of basis) meaning that it cooled ~1.65C (record pace for 4 month period): More great stuff on Atlantic La Niña that Webb referred to (this from 2021): https://cpaess.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/meetings/2020/presentations/kim-presentation.pdf 2. Another possible contributing factor is the record heat in higher latitudes of the Atlantic: This tweet from late yesterday is from a New Orleans pro-met who specializes in tropical:

The 3 main 0Z ensemble agree that the highest concentration of members with a TCG is in the MDR 45-60W between 8/31 and 9/3. Overall concentration looks a bit higher vs most earlier runs. This is pretty close to when/where 21 AI-Euro runs in a row had TCG as well as TCGs on recent ICON runs. Chances seem pretty good but we’ll see.

Euro Weeklies are still not giving in to more active. Sunday’s had member mean of 27 ACE for the next 4 weeks vs 1991-2020 avg of 58. If relative quiet were to verify, they’d deserve major kudos for being so persistent. Regardless, they’re still calling for some activity and not anywhere near dead.

You’re off on the month with the freezes that absolutely devastated the 2023 GA peach crop. It was March, not May. This was the mid-March cold snap that resulted about a month after the 2/16/23 major SSWE. After “one of the warmest Februarys on record for Georgia,” Knox said, those varieties came out of dormancy early and prepared to bloom just in time for mercilessly freezing weather in March. https://www.gpb.org/news/2023/07/05/dire-situation-what-caused-georgias-catastrophic-peach-crop-failure Most of GA’s peaches are grown just SW of Macon. Macon had freezes on 3/15, 16, 20, and 21. Those were the last freezes of the season: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc

Thanks, Charlie. I just figured out the reason for the misleading info. I just found a link in Hawkins’ article to this article written by James Dinneen, a science and environmental reporter: https://www.new-scientist.com/article/2444394-part-of-the-atlantic-is-cooling-at-record-speed-and-nobody-knows-why/ From this: “Part of the Atlantic is cooling at record speed and nobody knows why” is the headline “After over a year of record-high global sea temperatures, the equatorial Atlantic is cooling off more quickly than ever recorded, which could impact weather around the world. Over the past three months, the shift from hot to cool temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean has happened at record speed. This emerging ‘Atlantic Niña’ pattern comes just ahead of an expected transition to a cooler La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, and these back-to-back events could have ripple effects on weather worldwide.” Then within the article I saw this very important note: “Article amended on 22 August 2024. We clarified that warming is happening in part of the Atlantic and that long-term warming signals are not covered in the graph” The rest of the article there is paywalled. But then I found another link to the original article that isn’t paywalled: https://archive.ph/2024.08.20-103704/https://www.newscientist.com/article/2444394-the-atlantic-is-cooling-at-record-speed-and-nobody-knows-why/ From this: “We are starting to see that the global mean ocean temperatures are going down a bit,” says Pedro DiNezio at the University of Colorado Boulder. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), global sea surface temperatures this past July were slightly cooler than in July 2023 – ending a 15-month streak of record-high average ocean temperatures.” Then further down is this graph, which seems to be the key to the miscommunication and thus lead to the amendment note in the paywalled link that I bolded above. Focus on the far right, where 2024 is shown with a rapid cooling of anomalies from ~+1.15C in Mar to ~-0.5C in July or an anom. cooling of ~1.65C in just 4 months. So, evidently JB, himself, or someone else JB read misinterpreted that the entire or at least a large portion of the Atlantic cooled by 1.65C in just 4 months when in reality that was the case for just the (Nino portion of the?) eq. Atlantic. Then that lead to the need to amend the Dinneen article. But unfortunately there remains a huge problem. I’m not expecting JB to clarify because the misinterpretation of “record cooling of the Atlantic” fits his narrative of the recent underwater seismic activity drop leading to significant ocean/global cooling. @roardog@donsutherland1

Hey snowman, FYI, I couldn’t see what’s at your Facebook link. This may be because I don’t have a FB account. Are you able to copy and paste it?

Today on his free Saturday Summary, JB reiterated that not only is the Atlantic cooling, the entire globe is cooling due to a lagged response to reduced underwater seismic activity. Does anyone have any reliable data source that actually shows this “record” speed of cooling?