GaWx

The unrounded ONI max came in at +1.97. RONI never made strong with another +1.49.

EPS: ~25% of members have strong cold within 2/17-18 but snow is very limited (though it ends a day earlier than GEFS).

12Z GEFS: pretty wet SE 2/18-9 with 9 of 31 members having wintry precip. Many members have a GOM low.

12Z GEFS is warmer 2/15 than any recent run.

The 2/3 models (image below) are even more bullish for a major SSW with the GFS’ 2/16 reversal plunging way down to -17 and still dropping at the end (likely overdone)! GEFS mean now drops to -2 and still dropping at the end. Including the GFS, 6 members drop below -10 with a couple more possible after the end. GEFS extended means for mid to late Feb -1/25 run: stayed over +30 -1/29 run: stayed over +20 -1/30 run: stayed over +15 -1/31 & 2/1 runs: stayed over +10 -2/2 run: stayed over +7 -2/3 run: dipped to -2 and still dropping into extended, which hasn’t been released yet Meanwhile, CFS forecasts for the 1st half of Mar in the E US have gotten much colder.

-The mean calendar day snowfall is highest for 1/19, 1/25, 2/9, 2/26, and 3/2 with 3/2 the peak. -The highest mean 7 day periods are 1/24-30 and 2/26-3/3 with 2/26-3/3 THE peak. -There’s no telling how cold the SE will get. It is still too far out to have high confidence in and ensemble means are not going to show the degree of cold well due to timing differences of members causing a smoothing of the mean. But some of the projections I’ve seen are quite cold for that far out on a mean of an ensemble. Plus the cold is being forecasted to be strongest anomalywise in the E US rather than the mid Jan central US. -The Euro Weeklies severely underestimated the degree of mid Jan cold with them actually having warm anomalies throughout the US just over 2 weeks out! Even the map issued on 1/15 for 1/15-1/21 was quite a bit underdone. -Moderate+ El Nino climo favors 2/15+ for the best period for snowfall, even moreso for the 9 that had none in Dec and Jan. Those 9 averaged over 5” just for 2/15+. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

Thanks for posting this. The dashed red line that doesn’t come back up to the ERA5 mean until late March is from 2023 and isn’t the GEFS forecast. GEFS is all in green and ends on Feb 18. One member plunges to -20. It appears that ~30% go <0 by Feb 18, a significant increase vs recent runs. Trends have clearly been going toward a major SSW over the last few days. The earliest reverse is Feb 15. The mean likely gets down to ~+4.

Groundhog weeklies say spring may be awhile: mean dips to +11 with ~15 reversals at midmonth. A week ago the 1/26 run had only 3 midmonth reversals with the mean dipping only to +31!

1. Tiger, also, 1964 was good and 1958 was great. 2. Come to papa (from 12Z GEFS)(GEPS similar) as at a minimum the ducks are on the pond. Look at all of the lows (red) in the Gulf: Along with a cold SE helped by -AO: Check out the split flow along with 50/50 low (helps hold cold in longer) just off the NE corner of the image: And if the period just after this doesn’t workout, the new Euro Weeklies are suggesting within the following week for an opportunity.

Per the latest model consensus, there’s a very good chance that the PNA for the 2nd half of Feb (2/15-29) will average +0.5+ and the AO will average sub -1. The following El Niño 2nd half of Febs met both of those conditions: 1988, 1983, 1978, 1977, 1970, 1964, 1958 So, during 1957-1988, 7 of the 13 El Niños met both of these. But interestingly the subsequent 10 didn’t. So, 2024 would be the first of the last 11. How did those 7 last half of Febs play out at NYC in terms of temperature anomaly and snowfall? 1988: 0/0.6” 1983: +4/0.0” 1978: -8/1.1” 1977: -1/1.9” 1970: -5/2.3” 1964: -6/10.6” 1958: -9/8.4” AVG: -4/3.6” So, temps were MBN twice, BN twice, NN twice, and AN once. Snowfall was MAN twice, BN three times, and MBN twice. The average was BN for temperatures and NN for snowfall.

Per the latest model consensus, there’s a very good chance that the PNA for the 2nd half of Feb (2/15-29) will average +0.5+ and the AO will average sub -1. The following El Niño 2nd half of Febs met both of those conditions: 1988, 1983, 1978, 1977, 1970, 1964, 1958 So, during 1957-1988, 7 of the 13 El Niños met both of these. But interestingly the subsequent 10 didn’t. So, 2024 would be the first of the last 11. How did those 7 last half of Febs play out at RDU in terms of temperature anomaly and snowfall? 1988: -3/0.0” 1983: -3/0.4” 1978: -11/5.6” 1977: -3/1.5” 1970: -7/T 1964: -9/2.0” 1958: -9/3.0” AVG: -6/1.8” So, temps were BN 4 times and MBN 3 times. Snowfall was AN for all 3 MBN temperatures and BN for 3 of the 4 BN temperatures. The average was BN for temperatures and AN for snowfall.

If the 6Z GFS 10 mb were to verify closely, that would result in a mid-month solid reversal/major SSW. There’d probably be significant implications for as early as very late Feb and continuing through much of March in the E US based on the past. In other words, the chances of a very late spring would be increased. The 6Z has the reversal start Feb 15-16. @Stormchaserchuck1: How long is the average lag from a mid Feb major SSW to the start of potential significant sensible E US wx effects? 6Z GFS at 10 mb hour 360 (for 6Z on Feb 17) has a net E wind at 60N:

If the 6Z GFS 10 mb were to verify closely, that would result in a mid-month solid reversal/major SSW. There’d probably be significant implications for very late Feb into March in the E US based on the past. In other words, the chances of a very late spring would be increased.

Now that we’re finally up to the cold part of Raindance’s forecast, it’s time to root for it to be right.

No, I mean that 3.3” fell 2/15-16/1930. That left behind snowcover of 3” on 2/16. It dropped to 2” snowcover on 2/17.

No, I meant 3” on the first day that had a 7 and 2” on the 2nd day of a 7.

1. Yes, the 6/3 of 2/17-18/1958 were over a thick fresh snowcover of 7-8”. 2. The 2/17/1973 low of 7 was just after 0.8” fell. 3. The 2/18-19/1903 lows of 8 and 4 were just after 9.8” of snow fell. 4. The 2/16-17/1930 lows of 7 were over a fresh snowcover of 3”/2”. 5. But the 2/23-24/1889 lows of 5 and 3 were over no snowcover.

Don and others, I counted 16 strong El Niño winters back to 1877-8. Of those, 5 (31%) had their coldest of the winter at NYC 2/16-24: 1. 1889: lows of 5 on 2/23 and 3 on 2/24 vs coldest of 9 earlier (2/20-6 coldest week of winter at 24) 2. 1903: low of 4 on 2/19 vs coldest of 8 earlier (2/16-22 coldest week of winter at 21) 3. 1930: low of 7 on 2/16 and 2/17 vs coldest of 10 earlier 4. 1958: low of 6 on 2/17 and 3 on 2/18 vs coldest of 12 earlier (2/13-19 coldest week of winter at 17) 5. 1973: low of 7 on 2/17 vs coldest of 8 earlier With the coldest so far this winter being only down to 17 and with the colder pattern being predicted in the longer range, I’d think there’d be a good shot at getting the coldest of the winter 2/16-24. I realize getting below 10 will of course be a significant challenge considering the warmer climate. But with it getting down to 3 on 2/18/1958, I’d think a 9 in 2024 wouldn’t be a shocker. The coldest week so far this winter is 25.4 (1/15-21). A colder week later this month wouldn’t be easy but I don’t think it would be too surprising.

I’ve been thinking “prime time” winter storm opportunities in the SE wouldn’t likely start til ~2/18-19 but with colder dominating starting ~2/15.

For the SE, the last few days of the 12Z GFS don’t look good at 500 mb for sustained cold air. Too zonal imo. And then up at Chicago and MSP, the coldest was an AN mid 20s. Most of the recent runs looked better to me. It doesn’t matter much because it is just the low accuracy late GFS and the 12Z GEFS looks better at H5 and is similar to recent GEFS.

And now the OHC is down to only ~+0.10:

The late portion of the 12Z GFS was ugly. No two ways about it. Hopefully it will turn out to just be an outlier. Let’s see what the more credible late GEFS shows.

I don’t see a delay based on the consensus. It appears to me that the 3 major ensembles are still suggesting ~Feb 15 for a cold front generated by a Canadian high to first reach the SE. The strong increase in a +PNA still starts ~Feb 13. Now regarding the potential for significant nonmountain wintry precip, that has generally been targeting on the extended models for quite some time ~Feb 18-19 for the first decent chance per following individual ensemble member tracks. Anyone can look back at my posts on this timing in this thread. The more difficult challenge imo will be to see whether or not the predicted cold will be accompanied by precip or else be dry. That’s often a challenge as Arctic air is by its nature dry. My hope is though that an El Nino induced split flow will set up the SE for a nice winter storm. But getting the right combo of features and the right timing is always a challenge. That’s why it often takes only one major storm to make for an AN snow season.

0Z GFS and 6Z GFS (image below) have what is very likely a split major SSW by Feb 16-7. **Edit: 0Z GFS gets down to +6 at the end...so not quite a reversal.** Unlike the reversal of Jan 17, this warming would be the more typical near simultaneous and would be right on the anniversary of the one from last winter. Unlike the simultaneous one from last winter, this one wouldn’t have a strong -PNA to fight and would already have a -AO and possibly also a -NAO. Perhaps this is related to the 1/17/24 reversal. This wasn’t even hinted at until @mitchnickalerted us on Jan 23 as a stronger than climo SPV had been forecasted for most of Feb. The implications for especially the E US during very late Feb and especially Mar would be interesting:

I agree that the week centered on Jan 3 would be +2.1, not +1.9, if it were to match up with this cyclonicwx. Also, the week centered on Jan 24 would be +1.6, not +1.7. I don’t know why they don’t always match up. Good finding on your part, regardless.