Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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I do think Ukie has to trend north now at this point but man has that model had a mind of its own over the years.
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To be honest guys some of our big doozies living here now since 2012 have been the way we get these primaries to get close and then swing directly underneath us so we get the dynamics of that low still plus the developing ccb from the secondary taking over. I’m not gonna get so invested to where I get let down because that has become more of a reality here than not last couple winters. With that said CMC is a mauling in my book for north of I-40 and looks much more realistic with the primary. Gonna be a battle next couple days. @BornAgain13 where you at?! CMC will make you happy for sure.
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I def like your logics and reasonings behind this!
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
Buddy1987 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
You really believe tho that HP, if taken at face value, won’t have the primary decay quicker or do you feel initially it is a little misplaced to the west and the solution could be plausible? Pretty stout at 1041-1043. We know GFS is notorious in pile driving the primaries up into WV. -
A met can chime in and tell me I’m wrong. If you take the surface map at face value I suppose it is possible for the LP to undercut that high, as its positioning is a little to the west but generally speaking cold dense air is very hard to move or dislodge. 1028-1030HP yea maybe 1042HP another story in my book. Would be easier for me to score a coup up this way but would need some help for most of the forum overall. If I had to take a guess do or die I’d say at this stage primary would decay and die out sooner than what GFS depicts.
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GFS notorious in plowing LP’s and moving stout high pressure out of the way. Although plausible unlikely in my opinion.
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Looking like 0z gfs def wants to dig more with the s/w into Texas. Progression also faster and better moisture advection and return out to 108. Def looking like it will be amped. Lol driving rain storm for the entire forum as the storm cuts way to the west
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GFS is Dr Yes this year, therefore I’m running and taking it based on performance over Euro last several months here.
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
Buddy1987 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Man what an absolute mauling on the 12z suite thus far! When do you guys think continuity kicks in by Monday? @CAPE @yoda @psuhoffman -
Mauling so far your area north on CMC and GFS. Way too early unfortunately. Models swing so wildly these days there’s really no continuity IMO until at least Monday if I had to guess.
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Def trying to keep my expectations tempered here. Good to see continuity from a model standpoint but like I alluded to the other day models have multiple s/w flying around and keying on the final wave now hopefully will be the right call and there will be enough spacing to allow the wave to strengthen.
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Man a ton of volatility tho in the 18z gfs. Good grief! Multiple s/w within a couple days of each other.
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I thought and I could be wrong the HRRR is more widely used now over the RAP. At any rate I think marginal temps for you down your way may prove problematic. The more radiation this evening the better all of us may fare. Right now there’s zero clouds up here and the temp has corresponded by dropping 5 degrees.
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Wholeheartedly agree. Pretty much every model today has flipped toward the juicier side of things. Will love to see the radar a little later on here.
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Man that’s a nasty looking band over FLL and Boca up into West Palm
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This has my attention this go around, as my parents literally just relocated from Charleston SC to Naples within the past 3 weeks. Curious to get everyone’s thoughts as to what, if any disruption Cuba does to this thing before it re-emerges back into the Atlantic/Gulf. Me thinks we’re in for a surprise (just gut feeling) nothing scientific or meteorologically speaking.
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@CAPE @nj2va @yoda if you guys could choose would you prefer a front loaded or back loaded winter if given the opportunity to pick?
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I like the positivity!
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Nam has mixing even over the mountains and foothills of NC at 21. Heavy snow into eastern KY as well. Precip on northern side lining up nicely. system has slowed down once again as well same time frame as noted above. Still around CHS at this point.
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The old GFS looked like it finally had a clue and then suffered from some form of convective feedback issues at 36, whereas at 33 it had the low just south of MYR. It attempted some weird double barrel low type structure at that point. It’s attempting but right now imo is the worst model for this thing. It’s time for high res models but I figured I’d point that out anyway.
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Yea you’re def right Poimen. RGEM is pretty amped up with the moisture influx and the intensity. Looks like sleet to zr with only northernmost zones of NC, mountains and then up into VA would remain snow with that look.
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Yea 3k at 32 has the low around Wilmington. That will promote warming and thus a more “sleety” sounding usually.
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CMC for the win? Looks just like it. LP wise
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Another SVA guy. What a run for 0z and now 6z purposes! Euro shifts heavier qpf up our way and now the FV3 has followed suit on the 6z that is just coming out. The NAM, RGEM and Canadian are absolute crush jobs for northern NC and VA. Speaking of Canadian, 6z is even a tick west of 0z. Looks like the low goes over CHS and MYR, as well as Hatteras and then slows between 45-48hrs.
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@BornAgain13 lmfao! Bro don’t even look at the CMC total snowfall it’s like 30” for you
