Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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Starting to see some convective like elements now forming off to my southwest, ahead of the main shield of waa incoming. Most likely a burst of heavy snow or heavy sleet, but either way good to see the radar starting to light up here shortly once again.
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I will say mid afternoon still does not allow it to stick down this way. Under moderate snow, 29.5 out and it refuses to stick to sidewalks, driveways and streets. Give it a couple hours and it’ll be a different story.
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Coming down in sheets right now outside with that band coming through. Good sign with things to come!
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RadarScope is def the way to go. Worth the money for sure
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First flakes at the house. Very fine and small flakes at that. Can barely see the mountain over toward Blacksburg where @Disc is at. Should be picking up here shortly.
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15z HRRR has some more intense banding signatures showing up at the end of the run at 18hrs in SW VA. I’m sure those will begin to form and pivot on up the forum.
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Radar off to my southwest looks tasty. Will let you guys know how that performs. Virga will only be so long with returns showing up like that entering western VA. I’m thinking SE flow will def help some down this way with lift and moisture transport. Good luck up that way!
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HP to the north is no joke funneling in these low dew points. 31/15 in Salem, VA.
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Nam has mixing even over the mountains and foothills of NC at 21. Heavy snow into eastern KY as well. Precip on northern side lining up nicely. system has slowed down once again as well same time frame as noted above. Still around CHS at this point.
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The old GFS looked like it finally had a clue and then suffered from some form of convective feedback issues at 36, whereas at 33 it had the low just south of MYR. It attempted some weird double barrel low type structure at that point. It’s attempting but right now imo is the worst model for this thing. It’s time for high res models but I figured I’d point that out anyway.
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Yea you’re def right Poimen. RGEM is pretty amped up with the moisture influx and the intensity. Looks like sleet to zr with only northernmost zones of NC, mountains and then up into VA would remain snow with that look.
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Yea 3k at 32 has the low around Wilmington. That will promote warming and thus a more “sleety” sounding usually.
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CMC for the win? Looks just like it. LP wise
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Another SVA guy. What a run for 0z and now 6z purposes! Euro shifts heavier qpf up our way and now the FV3 has followed suit on the 6z that is just coming out. The NAM, RGEM and Canadian are absolute crush jobs for northern NC and VA. Speaking of Canadian, 6z is even a tick west of 0z. Looks like the low goes over CHS and MYR, as well as Hatteras and then slows between 45-48hrs.
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@BornAgain13 lmfao! Bro don’t even look at the CMC total snowfall it’s like 30” for you
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It’s the timing. Exactly what it is. Of course a 200 mile difference is going to affect the surface depiction. Hence why we say bye bye Jan 1.
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0z Canadian just out. Holds serve on bringing beefier precip up into northern areas. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=039
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@wncsnow @BornAgain13 looks like FV3 made incremental steps toward a wetter solution once again for southern VA. Good area of 1” qpf now showing up. Very good sign.
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Yea for real! And the RGEM and the ICON. Either all 3 of those are smoking something good or the GFS is up to its usual bs ways. FV3 has been behaving more like the first 3 models. The system slowing down is having huge implications on being able to make somewhat of a northward trek up toward hatteras and that is why the gfs looks so much different imo. I’m thinking ultimate track is CHS to MYR to Hatteras and then east from there when the confluence shuts it down.
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Old GFS is out there on its own with the speed of the system. Hauling ass by hr24, whereas some of the other models discussed are well to the west of where the GFS has the LP.
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Funny thing is man the track was fairly similar to 18z, just expanded the snow shield and spread the wealth so to speak. If the low traverses near Myrtle and up to Hatteras it’s a perfect track for us.
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0z RGEM another northern system. Does a miller b like transfer to CHS and heads up the coast to the outer banks. Heavy heavy snows northernmost NC/mountains and foothills and all of southern VA. Double digit totals throughout that whole region.
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For what it’s worth ICON has been rock steady as well. 0z still has it CHS to MYR. Heavy snows Greensboro, Winston Salem, Mt Airy and on up into ROA. CLT looks to be a rain sounding if the ICON comes to fruition.
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Great post Don!
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Yes that would be my assumption with it. It had a great track once it got going east of Savannah but then played hop scotch over the Atlantic lol! That should promote some form of southeast flow with that track and at least aid in lift for a little. Honestly if I got 8” I’d be tickled.
