Buddy1987

After the GFS with this last storm, I will find it hard to believe for quite a long time. Trash model.

Damn.. that escalated quick. Always nice to get a "whoa" from good ole @Ji

This has been HORRIFIC. Worst modeling in quite some time, even up to lead time. To top it my forecast went from 4-8 down to 1-3 and honestly that's if we even get lucky at this point. Super frustrating to track and then have it unfold in this manner.

It may tend to get a little more reliable but I honestly really wouldn't weigh it until about 12 hrs or less. Same with the ICON.. the NWS doesn't even factor it into their forecasting decisions. Nice model to look at in-between globals and such.

I would be really careful living or dying with the SREF or the HRRR. Both of these models are beyond atrocious. HRRR used to be the old RAP for context.

Impossible forecast up both our ways.. actually snowing pretty decent here current moment however. Maybe it's a good harbinger of things to come!

Expect the worst lollll. That ULL is too far south. Dry air gonna hurt us funneling in from the north/northeast. Hope I’m wrong.

AWESOME to see you’re in Salem as well! Yea I just personally feel like the way the ULL is coming in might make it a little tough as we fight against dry air draining in from the north/northeast. I’d be ecstatic if we could ring out about .3” of qpf. That would be a nice storm to work with, esp because the ratios are so crazy. @Blacksburg Coach see they flipped Montgomery Co to a warning.

I’m really worried about up our way with the HRRR and RGEM barely getting any snow up to 460 line.

SREF always has had a tendency to be over amped.

Wonder what type of verification scores it has.. looks very much like FV3/GFS

Looking at it again, it looks funky as hell though. It has the equivalency of supercells over the Atlantic and spawns two different SLP's around the enhanced area of thunderstorm related activity. Idk if I buy this at all. Would be a prime example of convective feedback if i've ever seen one. LOL as the run continued it now spawned a THIRD SLP. What in the world..

RGEM MUCH lighter on precip amounts. Really looks nothing like FV3 for western areas. Didn't want to see that..

RGEM at 36 is quite a bit stronger than the FV3 when comparing them at 12Z but FV3 is slightly more elongated and neutrally tilted. Not much tho..

SMOKED!

FV3 is an absolute thing of beauty and would put all the worry bears to bed.

Somebody in the MA forum had me dying because he recommended everyone go outside with their vacuums and suck all the air westward so the coastal would come this way. Then proceeded to create an AI generated photo with a bunch of people holding their vacuums high in the sky lollllll All seriousness though, this is what we all enjoy to do is interpret models/data and then see things transpire. Yes it can drive you nuts but it's what we sign up for, knowing damn good and well we may get nothing. Live for the thrill of the moment.

1000% I also agree. This is actually a good thing happening and it goes to show the power of what an ULL can do. Everyone breathe haha.

FV3 crushes I-40 at 12Z.

Nice deform band that basically stretches from RIC all the way back to NW GA.

NAM tends to run dry too further out in time. I would expect precip amounts to increase some. Maybe not drastically but with extremely high ratios for most all it's going to take is .3-.4 qpf to get the job done here and then some.

@BornAgain13 you would def approve of the 12Z NAM for our areas. the elongation/vort digging on the backside is helping up here to enhance precip. Coastal gets going at 51 and is tucked in a little more. Nice ribbon of snow breaking out for RDU folks. To @HKY_WX point, with the ULL going negative, someone is scoring nicely. That thing is a full closed contoured bully and going negative.

The vort at 45 is noticeably better and digging quite a bit more, with heights rising in New England. This is how someone away from the coastal influence scores a major coup. You can see precip expanding into the foothills, s va and from about Greensboro north.

DEF 3K as it gets into range.

NAM at 39 has a very healthy ribbon of snow, more so than 6Z, breaking out over eastern KY, nw TN and into S VA.