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Buddy1987

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  1. Buddy1987
    CMC throwing back precip significantly at 12Z compared to 0Z
  2. Buddy1987
    Do you feel like the models may be underestimating the precip shield or is it going to be more congealed, based around the baroclinity and then throwing it back? The wild card here is obv the ULL. Stronger that stays during it's trek of traversing better opportunity for folks further away from SLP forming off Hatteras.
  3. Buddy1987
    Bob, what are you thinking for our areas? Can't say I love the trend. I feel like as time goes things may adjust even more south and east. The confluence up top is hurting.
  4. Buddy1987
    I wish I could share in the enthusiasm brother.. I don't have a good feeling at all.. I think as we get closer the trend actually continues to head more south and east. Your area imo will do quite a bit better than up this way this go around.
  5. Buddy1987
    Man.. that even trended the wrong way for S VA.. this is like an I40 south and east special.
  6. Buddy1987
    Congrats to you all I40 south and east!
  7. Buddy1987
    @wncsnow @BornAgain13 @olafminesaw @NorthHillsWx what you guys seeing? Confluence def a thing thus far at 12Z from a couple models but precip shield still looks intact at 72 from last run.
  8. Buddy1987
    Out to 66 trough axis is def more positively tilted and western edge isn't digging as much. Not great thus far.
  9. Buddy1987
    Someone way smarter than me can correct me if i'm wrong but at 48 and now in recent runs, i've noticed that lobe of stronger energy migrating westward from Nova Scotia, is tending to buckle the confluence south and shunt things. Anyone else see that?
  10. Buddy1987
    I could be off in the end but I don't personally like upstairs thus far. Feels like we're going the opposite way of what the Foothills and SW VA at least would want. Eyewall will be happy with today for sure thus far for example or NorthHills
  11. Buddy1987
    Early guess at 36 has me say the trends at 12Z are not western folks friends put it that way. Don't like the fact things are tending to stay more positively tilted and east.
  12. Buddy1987
    GFS is off and running. Good luck everyone
  13. Buddy1987
    Usually can give us a good indicator as to which way the Canadian Global Model is going to go, similar to FV3 with GFS.
  14. Buddy1987
    Even if we were to try and extrapolate past 84 you don't think that could climb the coast? Low looks tucked in a good bit at the end of it's run. Maybe i'm pulling at straws.
  15. Buddy1987
    Time for the GFS to confuse us even more lol
  16. Buddy1987
    That is one HELL of a bowling ball.. looks to tuck the low super close to the coast by the end of it's run.
  17. Buddy1987
    RGEM trying hard.. confirming with my pops @stormtracker first though to check me because I got owned last go.
  18. Buddy1987
    Yea one of the Mets who is tied to NWS or CPC highlighted this a couple times in the MA forum. We really can't afford for the GFS to trend the wrong way here.. as is imo we're already on the western edge of the fence.
  19. Buddy1987
    @wncsnowextrapolating 12Z FV3 pretty big night and day difference at 5h comparing it to 12Z NAM. Would like to think it was def trending good with the ULL.
  20. Buddy1987
    Still a night and day difference, at least with heights, comparing FV3 to NAM at 12Z. FV3 also kinked a good bit further north and west by hr 60.
  21. Buddy1987
    Nam was super dry with previous storm and then began to catch up to the globals so there's that minimum. ULL not digging though is concerning for western folks early on in the 12Z runs.
  22. Buddy1987
    Man.. that was ROUGH after HR 54 or so... not how we are wanting to start the day. I really thought with the height rises we could be looking at something. That thing is moving faster than the asteroid in Armageddon.
  23. Buddy1987
    Nam def favors the more south and east trend. I-85, maybe I-40 south and east. RDU likes this.
  24. Buddy1987
    Comparing it more now around hr 54, while the heights are better the axis point of the trough orientation is the same but sped up some, so i'm not so sure it's going to dig and turn more, which i'm sure most would be happy with around these neck of the woods (no north movement).
  25. Buddy1987
    Idk Randy.. think you might be right man.. heights are def better but the western edge is simply quicker to move south not so much more west or southwest.
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