Buddy1987

30/18

LOL!! NAM with 1.29” of freezing rain here end of it’s run.

33/17 here now. Lower than I thought thus far. Expecting a 2-5 or 3-6 ordeal before flip to sleet and freezing rain. As some have alluded to some of the freezing rain totals are prolific. Nam has beefed them up. Gfs and Canadian had over an inch up this way @BornAgain13even half of that would be insane! I’ve seen between .75-1.00 when I was a kid growing up in CT and it sounded like a shotgun going off in the woods all night with trees snapping like twigs. Lost power for well over a week. Can’t ever forget something like that.

Temp really starting to bottom out. Down to 33/17. Love it!

37/17 nice to see temps dropping off as clear skies allow for radiational cooling.

42/16 near Roanoke VA.

GFS has been steady as she goes for like the last 747 runs of this storm. Question is can we actually believe it? I feel like other guidance really isn’t as aggressive.

Thanks for the maps Will! Appreciate it as always

GFS ENS agree with OP. ROA-CHO jack. @clskinsfan7.1” up you’re way. Feel like that’ll make you beyond happy.

Gotta say overall the GFS has been unbelievably rock solid with this for run after run for quite some time.

Any met or long time lurker ( @clskinsfan @nj2va @CAPE) want to give me their best shot as to what they think shakes down this way in SW VA? We are so close on the line down here between a heavy snow or heavy ice scenario I’m having a hard time. How out on an island do you think GFS is compared to other guidance?

@BornAgain13the 6z gfs would be a cataclysmic ice storm. Those totals are absolutely insane.

Man.. if the GFS freezing rain map verifies we may not have power for a long time. Congrats to 64 north. Looks like this one moved too far north.

Euro has been all over the place on this one. Would like to know what Euro AI is showing..

Looks like you may have a couple hours of very heavy snow as well if things behave.

Calling @Bob ChillGFS drops a nuke on us! Literally like 7-8 runs in a row.

I’d honestly rather have a slight shift south in the event there’s a correction north some up until game time. Getting ready to get pretty darn excited. Been quite awhile for a pretty significant snow here.

I want to believe it so bad but been burned so many times recently I’m cautiously optimistic. Definitely tracking.

Agreed. Very hard to bet against the Euro. Is the AI similar and in agreeance or does it at least bring a better snow shield for most? I’m not as caught up as I usually am.

I got a better chance of surviving gas station sushi than I do of the GFS verifying. It will cave soon.

If we get 6-10 you can go ahead and lock in that bullseye for your area hahaha

SMOKED nice to see at least until 18z has a totally different look.

I’m jealous down here guys and gals. Looking to be a raging sleet or ice storm thus far. Been the theme this year it seems for south of 66.

F’n A! You got that right! Used to get me hype reading the detailed AFD’s.

About 10 miles west northwest of Roanoke VA.