Buddy1987

That was my thought as well wrt the euro Ukie blend. Can’t say I blame them. It’s like taking the -800 odds on a sports betting site. The Nam concerns me with the non existent amount of moisture down here but from what I’ve seen it’s the only one doing it. Otherwise it’s a pretty well juiced system, with qpf values around 1 inch. One thing I am pumped about is Sunday morning is damn near 19 here so anything that falls should stick nicely.

I’m surprised.. that’s kind of a ballsy call by them. I feel like they’re usually a little more reserved. I’m right on that line of 3-6. I’ll believe that when I see it. You think the backside of that vort gets us?

I’ve already told myself to not get disappointed so I’ve fully accepted an ice storm. We get significant snow it’ll be one of the best surprises in my mind. I had just posted in the Mid Atlantic forum I couldn’t believe that we’re still in the game for a significant snowfall. I thought gfs actually helped that cause. Off topic of Sunday/Monday system we had a snow squall warning. I was making a delivery to Shawsville and it was absolutely dumping snow. Got back to Salem and it had whitened everything except the pavement. Was nice to see that. Feels like it’s been awhile.

I still cannot believe south of 64 still has an outside chance for a significant snowfall. I feel like the gfs actually took a step toward the euro and Ukie. I’m fully expecting ice but would be a nice surprise if we could thump out of the gate before thermals get warm upstairs.

RGEM more Nam and GFS like.. Icon more Ukie and Euro like wrt track imo.

Something to really pay attention to I guess. You can see the northern energy/confluence making a more concerted effort to push down from north of Wisconsin into Wisconsin now.

Yea def more south southeast of its 12z position with moisture and the low.

I like the precipitation expansion over places like Missouri etc.. seem to be juicing that up thus far.

Confluence looks a bit sharper by hr 32 and s/w is a bit more flat. May be negligible in the next 10 minutes but it’s noticeable enough.

Phewwwwwww Blacksburg with the Winter Storm Watch for ice accretion up to 4 tenths of an inch..

Just came back from Shawsville. It was absolutely puking and dumping out there. Visibility went to sh*t fast!

I personally actually have a good feeling about system #2. I keep reminding myself the tendency for the euro to bury things in the southwest and not eject them properly. When I say good I mean like 3-6” type deal I’d be beyond happy about.

You’ll never find a bigger fan on the east coast of the United States than this guy when it comes to the Ukie. @Bob Chill time to will it south!

Can we actually trust it or is it a long shot? Euro isn’t overly far off either with a couple corrections in all reality..

Man it’s coming down pretty decent right now. Did not expect this. Can hear some pingers mixed in.

Need euro onboard to start looking more at it. Don’t want to get my hopes up. Been a long time since we got even a moderate storm.

Good call out. That is one hell of a strong vort that would swing thru. Wherever it swings and whoever is just north of it may very well have a nice surprise.

Id have to imagine if this was go time the southeast component to the winds would advect a nice fetch of moisture and ring out what isn’t being picked up maybe a little earlier on.

Nice squall line showing up on 12z run. Goes to show the dynamics at play.

Heck of a dynamic system unfolding. 12z Nam has a squall line developing over Mississippi and western Tennessee. Also slower with arrival of precip.

What’s up everyone?! Been in the Mid Atlantic forum for quite a bit. My area in Roanoke is tough because I feel like I don’t have a dedicated forum. Kinda smack dab in the middle of the southeast and Mid Atlantic. Anyhow, beginning to grow increasingly concerned about a major ice storm here. Last NAM I checked, prior to 12z running, showed 0.84” of ice here. Even half of that number would be crippling. 0z Canadian wanted to go full on white sandy beach with anywhere from 1.5-2.3” of sleet. Hoping we all get in on some action in the coming weeks.

Nothing like waking up and having 113 new posts. You know something major happened, good or bad. Euro definitely made things interesting down this way. Nam showing 0.84” of ice is terrifying. Cheers to a fun day of model watching as everyone reels in what they want and hope out of this storm!

That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic!

Since we’re all dissecting the Nam the one thing I will say is any time I see thermals are wonky upstairs it is a red flag. All the years that thing has been around it usually has held superiority over models when it comes to low level cold. Naturally there’s elements of meteorology that will affect it, I.e. placement of low pressure, etc.. but if it is showing some pronounced warm layer Aleet Aleet could show its ugly face. Food for thought. I personally wouldn’t put much stock into this far out but just be mindful of how it can still be useful in its own way.

Id LOVE a south trend I’m actually really surprised though because Blacksburg put out 2-5” for our neck of the woods and I haven’t seen that really in any of the modeling.