Buddy1987

SHOOT.. when you mix I feel like we end up mixing too.. can’t ignore the north trends no matter how positive I want to be. In reality though for both of us the WAA strip has hardly wavered for multiple runs now. Problem is the dreaded warm layer is starting to become a distinct reality. Hoping it keeps its mojo as we close in.

Bring back the ETA. Old school is still worth something! Look at Johnny Lawrence from Karate Kid/Cobra Kai! Guy is still a badass.

Ditto to the RIP! Did not know this either. I’m kinda in the same boat outside of winter. Unless there’s some crazy severe weather outbreak I don’t normally pop back in until mid to late fall when we can start seeing the monthlies of winter and long term outlook. Nice to see you posting though. I know you’ve been here for quite awhile as well.

Going to inject some positivity around here.. couple things going for us. 1. EE rule.. 2. How many times have we seen the models around this time frame lax in density of cold air mass getting pumped down only to key back in on it, especially as NAM gets into range and we see the CAD potential? Sure even if there’s CAD we could still always be subjected to the sneaky warm layer. But in all reality we still have way more positives than negatives current time. I-40 north bare minimum is in a great spot. Let’s see if we can get the I-85 guys and gals back in as well!

@Bob Chill I swear to god man ever since you moved down to this neck of the woods, crazy outstanding weather has been transpiring in winter months. It’s time to move your Aunt, Uncle, Niece and 7th cousin if need be down here and finish off the luck of all luck. Even if half of that came to fruition my lord would I be beyond myself.

Yes it still has its superiority there.

They’ve kinda been flippy floppy tho last several runs going north then south then north again. Guess we’ll see what shakes here. I’m hoping you guys get at least a solid 5-8 or 6-10 before WAA were to ever hit. You def deserve it. Nice to see the board so active.

@WxWatcher007id sell my soul to you for minimum 2 years if this verified. Let the Reaper come back!

I got you brother I knew what you were saying. I’m sitting in TPA airport right now heading back so I was just doing it off 6z euro recollection. Thought it looked a good bit warmer. I feel like we’re in that smaller adjustment period to fine tune the final markers/barriers for mix/pure snow and precip shield accuracy. Thursday afternoon maybe will be the window to start saying ok this is a good bet.

540 line I feel like looks to be quite a bit further north and west no?

So far today GFS somewhat on an island compared to GGEM, Ukmet and Euro plus Icon if we’re counting it. Wanting to hold the Baja energy back more so than other guidance. We’ll see how Euro looks momentarily but would need some trends for the GFS to happen. Plenty of time to do so obv. The crazy part is the Euro used to do horribly with southwest energy getting properly ejected and now the GFS seems to be having some issues. GFS Ensembles also would mirror the op in some senses from initial conditions so not sure we can truly weigh it. Time will tell friends..

What a beat down!! 81 to 40 to 77 to 85 “spesh”

For the newbies.. I wouldn’t overly invest too much faith or hope into the Icon. Icon isn’t even used by NWS offices to make an informative decision based off its physics etc. Def a model to check trends and have some entertainment in between the main show but in all reality it is pretty worthless.

Right where we want it 5 days out. Gives us time to adjust if the HP isn’t as strong as modeled and allows low to track further NW.

Man I feel this with my whole soul. Growing up in CT pricing on everything, even back around 2012 was beyond outrageous (and far worse now). Moved down got established with my wife in SW Va.. just turned 38.. have 7 years left on the house.. vehicles paid off in May coming up and have managed to live a very comfortable life here. Property Taxes are a good 5-6k less per year easily. And to your point the folks here are super friendly and kind. Big shift from what I was accustomed to.

Solid 4” easy here. Pretty awesome storm. Haven’t been able to shovel that much in what felt like a good while. Also nice in the fact that I was outside around 730 last night and the temp had dropped down to 25 at that point.

Closing in on 3” snow has picked back up in intensity here. Coming down at a strong moderate pace.

Closing in on 3” snow has picked back up in intensity here. Coming down at a strong moderate pace.

Yea looks like the heaviest rates are to the E/SE of the ROA valley. You all look to do a good bit better.

Looking like the heaviest rates are going to be south of ROA for my direct area. Kind of a bummer there.

Cul de sac and my driveway starting to cave. Getting close to the freezing mark now down to 32.7

Well that escalated quickly lol.. within the last 10 minutes elevated surfaces have caved rapidly. Gonna be beautiful outside in a little bit.

Moderate rain over to moderate snow. Temp went from 36 down to 33. Elevated surfaces caving rapidly now.

Moderate snow. Flipped on a dime here. Temp down to 33

Rain and 35… temp rose a good 3 degrees overnight.. ugh