I feel like everything thus far is pretty uniform to 6z. No huge major changes. Anything to point out would be maybe a slightly better fetch of moisture getting pulled from the gulf, as evident over the Deep South.
CMC doing a good job illustrating the cold air damming setup, even with primary to the west northwest. Freezing rain down the spine of the apps into Asheville.
I would be totally happy with 4-6” down here if it meant everyone got in on some significant snowfall. Icon was about as close to perfect as you could hope for.
Bottom line for this run for me is simply the timing. Pretty significant delay with the low which allows confluence to weaken some. Always the finite details with these things.
I don’t really like the way this is trending for our areas. This just feels like it has disappointment written all over it. Only thing I could see having us overperform is that southeast flow juice up the atmosphere and we get a couple inches before flipping. That’s the way too early call.
I’m actually worried because of the trajectory of the low at present the WAA misses and goes north of here, which of course would be good for a good majority of the forum.
Regardless of what happens on the run I feel like the op is actually far more realistic with the HP up top and it’s not going to just plow thru it and cut. I say this and watch at 6z it’ll cut to Minnesota.
Like the juice at 150. Everything shifted pretty significantly to the southwest due to factors stated by Randy and everyone above. I like it so far. I’ll say it to start
@NorthArlington101 AI Euro you posted above I would seriously have to contemplate being content with not getting anything else rest of winter if it meant locking in a good 4-8/5-10 type ordeal.