Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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When I was still in my teenager years and living with my parents in NW CT we had an ice storm where the temp stayed in the low teens throughout. It was absolute devastating. Easy 0.75''-1.25'' area wide. Trees going down all night long in the woods sounding like a shot gun going off. One came down, wiped out our deck and pool. It was pretty terrifying.
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Hope to God those ZR totals do not verify. I mean even half of that is absolutely devastating with surface temps that low.
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That is SUPER early for them. Shows the magnitude and how impactful this is going to be.
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@burgertimeyou still have paid access to Euro? If so can you do PBP?
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Let the f*ckery begin
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@BornAgain13 GEFS actually was pretty solid for SVA here... lots of quality hits.. many more than amped members. There were like 3 individual members that skewed the mean imo.
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P9/P25 skewing the mean pretty immensely. P6 for that matter too.
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I will stand on my mole hill here and say the Canadian is full of sh*t.. you guys can pelt me later but i've seen this play out enough to say a 1005 mb low isn't going to just move a massive 1046ish MB HP out of the way. Be the first to go on record and give relative confidence in that. Unless the GFS has had an update or something, it used to LOVE doing that and then recorrect back to reality.
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The Canadian is an absolute dumpster fire of epic proportions. I trust no part of that when it drives the primary that far north but then the thermals looks like the GFS lol.
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FV3 looked better than the NAM with surface at the end of the run so there's that at least. Not so much of a "finger pointing" happening with the WAA. More of a uniform west to east based trajectory. Pretty stout western trough though.
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I personally don't like the trajectory of the WAA as modeled. I think a majority of us would miss the meat and potatoes of the moisture, at least to start.
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Is the HP really going to be that transient? I mean christ it's solid as heck comparatively to the norm..
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Yes at 72 it's going the wrong way. Heights rising pretty drastically. Precip delayed as well. HP slightly stronger over WI compared to MN at 6z. Not much bearing there.
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I think NAM is trending wrong way.. ugh.. you can see heights rise pretty drastically at 72 12z. Precip also delayed by a good bit. HP slightly stronger and anchored over WI instead of MN.
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Nam @54 seems to want to interact with baja energy and a taller ridge out west but the confluence in the midwest also looks stronger so not sure we have much to go off of yet.
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Ridge is taller out west but confluence is stronger in the midwest. Baja energy wanting to interact earlier potentially. Not sure how this translates still. Also to NorthHills point, NAM is getting out of range.
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Nam slow as heck this morning. Stuck at 48 for awhile now. One thing is for sure.. that HP means BUSINESS. 1056 pumping into the continental us
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@36 the large lobe of energy north of MN/WI seems to be having an effect here. More pronounced with strength and progression on kinking southwest. Curious how it will relate downstream. Ok yea.. @42 confluence is pretty pronounced here compared to 6Z. Again I KNOW we are talking Nam but any positive shift is always a good sign to kick off 12z runs.
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For what it's worth @36 hrs NAM shows the Baja energy being affected some by the large lobe of energy above MN. Curious to see how this translates downstream. Ok yea.. @42 confluence is pretty pronounced here compared to 6Z. Again I KNOW we are talking Nam but any positive shift is always a good sign to kick off 12z runs.
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One can only hope.. I also like the fact that someone had mentioned earlier the 6Z Euro didn't have an exorbitant amount of members continue the amped theme and if anything either held or lost a couple in the suite. Got to start off with a strong 12Z run.
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I still think there's a surprise or two left in the bag on this one. The GFS was "trending" in the right direction again at 6z. A HP that strong as modeled still gives a good portion of the board a shot. @BornAgain13the 6z Euro and AI Euro had some MEGA hits still in it for our direct areas. Also a good trend was the fact the amped members weren't continuing to trend the wrong way.
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I’ve been reading the trend throughout the year is to deamplify as we lead into the event. Feel like that would help a ton of us tremendously. Only caveat here is how an STJ plays into that. Not sure we’ve had that hand in awhile dealt to the table.
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Sigh… F’n cooked down here.. and those freezing rain maps are what nightmares are made of.
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Yea just to the west in Salem off 81.
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@MillvilleWx @Bob Chill the thing I like for us is that WAA mega strip really hasn’t wavered for MULTIPLE runs now. Some noise here and there but that paint brush stroke is straight and steady as she goes. Hoping it is still a reality by Thursday night and then I’ll personally get a little more excited.
