Buddy1987
-
Posts
4,214 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Buddy1987
-
I deleted cause it’s like it auto corrected at 84 and is in line with the 18z LP placement wise. Qpf shield is more expansive on the northern side of the storm however.
-
18z FV3 and 0z NAM are fairly similar in regards to low placement at 84 on nam and 90 on fv3 respectively. Precip is much more expansive on the northern side of the system however on nam, noticeably for TX and OK. If that continued to translate that would be good for the northern areas of the board to ensure the precip would make it this far north. But yes for a board as a whole overall, you have to love the evolution of the low placement.
-
The trajectory of the precip @75 on the nam just looks awesome. Looks like it’s about to go nuclear.
-
Man I take that back. 1037 HP up in Ohio shunting this thing even further south thus far.
-
Does slower help this thing phase with the n/s s/w in your opinion down the line here?
-
18z GFS has the high shifting westward rather than moving along with the precip. That may open the door for the low to move a little further north this go around.
-
So essentially the comma head will be more expansive in your opinion when the time frame gets closer because of the strength and magnitude of this thing?
-
Would I be fringed up here you think man with a track like that? I worry the dry air would inhibit from northern extent reaching me, as you know the dewpoints are gonna be dry as heck.
-
Euro is definitely slower than the gfs and some of the other models. Slowest of the group in getting this storm in here. That’s another factor to fine tune
-
GEFS is def further south and east of the OP. On my phone and at work so don’t have pictures but at its closest approach it goes from Jacksonville FL to southeast of Myrtle and then east from there.
-
96 hr FV3 gfs similar to 6z same time frame with low placement. HP sliding a little better along with the system to the north 1mb stronger
-
Haha good minds think alike! Posted simultaneously
-
Gfs still experiencing the convective feedback issues we alluded to yesterday between 132-138. Has the low do a jump toward the convection out in the Atlantic. The way the high is positioned up near Toronto, that should’ve allowed the storm to come more north/northeast and been better for the mid Atlantic as well in my opinion. Overall crushing run, albeit more inland than some people will like. I will say in events like these, if you have borderline temps and heavy precip falling, you could be in for a surprise on the line
-
Surface wise I would not trust it with low pressure setup, etc.. that far out , however the Nam is able to see low level processes that relate directly to topography and ageostrophic events, I.e. CAD, damming of cold air and effective funneling processes that occur. I have seen it many times be correct in events such as these. NAM is probably the biggest tool you could use for CAD events in my opinion. Even when I lived in the northeast, the NAM would be more or less way ahead of the curve when it came to ice storm setups because of the tools it has built into it. So no it is not a farce in my opinion when it shows dewpoints the way it does right now.
-
Ratios for the win!
-
What strikes me the most this morning as I’ve finally been able to go through the panels, along with the pages on the board here is the NAM’s low level cold compared to the other models. The dew point difference is night and day between it and the gfs. Obv if some of the folks on here are not aware, the NAM’s superiority is by far #1 when tracking events such as these. It’s low level resolution allows it to sniff cad out. If I were a betting man, regardless of where the low moves in its final stages, that cad is going to be a cold dome and extremely hard to dislodge. As we get closer, it will be interesting to say the least on what effect the banana high and/or HP up in northern New England have on us. Stay tuned!
-
You’d have to think with the banana high setup and a 1037 up in northern New England the cad would most likely be underdone at this point
-
FV3 is another bombs away! Helped by a 1034 HP sitting up top in Lake Placid NY. Big run for VA/NC the damn thing stalls between 138-150. This is going to be some prolific snowfall totals on this run good lord!!
-
Sizeable shift north with the heavier snow no?? Up into northern VA now.
-
Moisture transport would be stupid with that look across the board.
-
Oh absolutely! Especially when you have to freakin wait 20min for the FV3 to load 6 hour increments
-
Canadian is amped and much further northwest. Have to watch this closely. Has the low traverse from around CLT up into Richmond.
-
Thank you sir!! I’ve been highlighting this for a couple days now. The low does this wonky let me jump on over to the convection blob and has for multiple model runs on the OP.
-
Only thing I take away is the northwestern side of storm precip wise is not as expansive as 18z but that would be corrected closer to game time. Also timing is just a tick faster with everything. Good run for the NC peeps.
-
@102 HP 1mb stronger and low pressure is moving a little faster, comparing to 18z at same time frame.
