Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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Yup. Plus to maximize accrual you’d want to have temps in the upper 20s to have it stick to everything. Antecedent conditions will obv help as well with the cold weather of late.
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The low on 3k is jumping around like crazy between hr37-40. I’m guessing it has to do with the convection and dynamics and what not. Hr 42 has the low over Tallahassee, whereas 12z had it southeast of MYR
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Ice is def nuts this go around down that way. Stay safe if it comes to fruition.
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CRUSHED! 3k is out to 34 and looks similar to 32k thus far.
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NAM scrapes the coastline this go around and has the low subsequently go from CHS at 48 to MYR at 51 and then a position JUST south of the outer banks at 54. Better track for the foothills and mountains of NC/VA. Gonna be some good weenie maps.
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Precip is much more expansive at 48 into eastern KY. Gonna be a great run for northern areas that are close to the fringe line this go around. RIC to ROA and down to the NC mountains are getting smoked! Low is literally JUST south of CHS, whereas 12z already had it e/se of Wilmington.
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Couldn’t agree more getting me giddy seeing the precip to my west and southwest on that run. Maybe this is the time frame Grit, myself and a lot of other people mentioned the precip shield correctly portraying this beast.
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Burg, if the system is slower does that help the n/s turn it more negative or is that negligible at this point?
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Ahhhh so I see! I did not know that.
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Is it known to be amped?? I know it can tend to have a cold bias.
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Yea the RGEM is straight nuts Burrell. Huge squall line modeled along with much more northern extension of snow with it. Lends credence to CMC that it may not be completely on crack. Kind of nuts with how close the event is now.
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@Disc @wncsnow @BornAgain13 Got to like the trends here at 12z. The RGEM is straight sexy! Has a completely different solution though. End of the 48hr run it tries to do some type of transfer with the low over Alabama. Big snows look like they would reach up here. Plus that is one hell of a squall line approaching northwestern FL. Goes to show the dynamics with this system. RGEM/3K/ICON/CMC ftw!! Euro looks improved as well!
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I will say the 3k nam is not that far off from it, at least up this way. Never say never it’s nailed these things several times before.
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James, 6z Canadian still looks really good for us. Let me know if the link worked http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-animation.php?mod=gemglb&run=06&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
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Canadian looks more like nam. Precip shield is more expansive on the northern side. I’d love to post images but my dumb a** forgot my password for American Wx site.
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I don’t believe the gfs for one second, unless everything starts doing this. Not wishcasting but the low is really not that far off from the same time frame on the 18z panel. Obv I worry about dry air intrusion from the HP up to our north and have worried about it all week but I just don’t see it being a final solution. Crazier things have happened.
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Do you believe it Bean? I cannot believe how much it made the northern precip vanish.
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GFS looks north at 36 see if it adjusts here. Edit: Looks similar at 42 now LP wise.
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It has a bias to be too cold.
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The nam has a mind if it’s own. No amp in it at all until now. I don’t think it’s amping tho as some alluded to it’s simply expanding the qpf shield like most thought it would as it got closer to game time.
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Wow the NAM absolutely ravages southern VA on this run. The clown maps are going to be ridiculous. I’m getting the laptop fired up so I can post images tonight.
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Does anyone have any correlation to what “weaker” lows have with a significant and untapped potential regarding tropical connected moisture from the Baja vs lows that bomb out and almost make there own moisture flux say from the gulf? I read some interesting things on what @olafminesaw posted on that hamster link and I feel like after reading that this may be one of the “big” ones for the lower mid Atlantic and the southeast. That tropical connection, along with pwats, waa and subsequent atmospheric processes should lead to some serious rates of snow and in my opinion one heck of an expansive qpf shield, maybe more so than what the models are predicting. Wanted to get an opinion from a met or a pro in regards to this, if there was any studies done or anything like this. This southern low is traveling a long ways and picking up immense moisture along its path.
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We still end up with like 1.50-1.75” nothing to be pissed about. Even if we got an inch we’d still be looking at close to a foot. We’ll have winter storm watches as well with this afternoons package guaranteed. Look at the positives here. FV3, Canadian and the GEFS moved the low closer to the SC coast this run. Qpf shield will respond for us. All is trending well right now imo.
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Ukmet looks like it expanded the precip a little further north for southern VA peeps this run.
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Yup. Two camps setting up here. Ukmet and Euro vs FV3, to an extent GFS and the Canadian. Suppressed vs more north
