Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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Gfs still experiencing the convective feedback issues we alluded to yesterday between 132-138. Has the low do a jump toward the convection out in the Atlantic. The way the high is positioned up near Toronto, that should’ve allowed the storm to come more north/northeast and been better for the mid Atlantic as well in my opinion. Overall crushing run, albeit more inland than some people will like. I will say in events like these, if you have borderline temps and heavy precip falling, you could be in for a surprise on the line
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Surface wise I would not trust it with low pressure setup, etc.. that far out , however the Nam is able to see low level processes that relate directly to topography and ageostrophic events, I.e. CAD, damming of cold air and effective funneling processes that occur. I have seen it many times be correct in events such as these. NAM is probably the biggest tool you could use for CAD events in my opinion. Even when I lived in the northeast, the NAM would be more or less way ahead of the curve when it came to ice storm setups because of the tools it has built into it. So no it is not a farce in my opinion when it shows dewpoints the way it does right now.
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Ratios for the win!
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What strikes me the most this morning as I’ve finally been able to go through the panels, along with the pages on the board here is the NAM’s low level cold compared to the other models. The dew point difference is night and day between it and the gfs. Obv if some of the folks on here are not aware, the NAM’s superiority is by far #1 when tracking events such as these. It’s low level resolution allows it to sniff cad out. If I were a betting man, regardless of where the low moves in its final stages, that cad is going to be a cold dome and extremely hard to dislodge. As we get closer, it will be interesting to say the least on what effect the banana high and/or HP up in northern New England have on us. Stay tuned!
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You’d have to think with the banana high setup and a 1037 up in northern New England the cad would most likely be underdone at this point
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FV3 is another bombs away! Helped by a 1034 HP sitting up top in Lake Placid NY. Big run for VA/NC the damn thing stalls between 138-150. This is going to be some prolific snowfall totals on this run good lord!!
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Sizeable shift north with the heavier snow no?? Up into northern VA now.
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Moisture transport would be stupid with that look across the board.
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Oh absolutely! Especially when you have to freakin wait 20min for the FV3 to load 6 hour increments
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Canadian is amped and much further northwest. Have to watch this closely. Has the low traverse from around CLT up into Richmond.
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Thank you sir!! I’ve been highlighting this for a couple days now. The low does this wonky let me jump on over to the convection blob and has for multiple model runs on the OP.
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Only thing I take away is the northwestern side of storm precip wise is not as expansive as 18z but that would be corrected closer to game time. Also timing is just a tick faster with everything. Good run for the NC peeps.
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@102 HP 1mb stronger and low pressure is moving a little faster, comparing to 18z at same time frame.
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Not sure if you’re familiar with the orographic processes around here but southeasterly upslope up against the mountains creates a ton of lift and enhances rain or snow, depending on the season. Even if it were overdone it’s still mightily impressive.
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Grit, I feel like the gfs is notorious for burying these lows ungodly amounts only to correct toward the end. Not saying this will happen here but it is highly suspect to me. On the flip side, the gfs usually is underdone with cad and high pressure systems to the north. Catch 22 right now what to believe with the soon to be phased out gfs.
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I understand it’s the nam as well but there are some things you can look at with the nam to give you an idea of what it’s doing vs some of the other models. Most know the nam always tends to over amp things. It’ll be telling if the nam is over amped or is the southern outlier and will give a better insight as to what this beast is going to do.
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Been saying it for days the old GFS is putrid putting it nicely. Wouldn’t put much stock into it. FV3 CMC and EURO are going to lead the charge on this one.
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Are you referencing because of its depiction or warmth or both? I mean it’s def a plausible outcome at this range. It’s track isn’t far off from any of the major models. It is by far the warmest of anyone however. It has the HP originally in northern New England but has it exit stage before precip really ever gets here.
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FV3 is a thing of beauty and has been for multiple model runs now. It as well has gone more toward the miller b scenario. Has the primary die in northern AL with secondary off SC coast and then go N/NE from there.
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Concur with this. HP over the Midwest is situated a little further north and west compared to 18z is the only negligible difference I see thus far.
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I’m sorry but for me I don’t buy the 0z gfs whatsoever. It is still doing something odd with the low pressure as it’s around the SC coast. It still has the tendency to want to get the low to accelerate rapidly toward the blob of convection out in the Atlantic. Idk if I buy the sharp cutoff of precip the way it is portraying it as well. I am curious to see if the FV3 follows the Ukie/CMC suite tonight with the turn back toward miller b scenario. Very fascinating to track this storm at this juncture.
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GFS with its typical warm bias when it comes to cad events me thinks but face value it is significantly warmer than most runs previous.
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Yup! 132 GFS has banana high pressures situated. The high north of the area is progged a couple mb’s weaker comparing to 18z, whereas it was at 1038 and now at 1034. Low is north and east of 18z position. Let’s see where it goes here.
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Does anyone have any verification scores for how the FV3 has performed wrt scoring coupes?
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I was referencing comparing it to the 18z gfs and the 12z euro being a lot different.
