Buddy1987

Even down this way?

Oof yea GFS is DOA for 12z. I would love to use the excuse of convective feedback but that is probably pulling at straws at this point.

I’ll honestly believe it when I see it even down in ROA for my backyard.

Do it!! I’m not sure I ended the season above 2” total so let’s bring some good juju early on.

12/9/2018 last time I had something decent early around here

How much would it take for everyone to have a meh rest of the year if Monday came to fruition and over performed? Be honest

Man that’s a nasty looking band over FLL and Boca up into West Palm

This has my attention this go around, as my parents literally just relocated from Charleston SC to Naples within the past 3 weeks. Curious to get everyone’s thoughts as to what, if any disruption Cuba does to this thing before it re-emerges back into the Atlantic/Gulf. Me thinks we’re in for a surprise (just gut feeling) nothing scientific or meteorologically speaking.

10+ years of living in Roanoke can’t say I ever recall seeing Tropical Storm warnings and local hurricane statement products issued. Pretty wild. Gusts to 47 tomorrow for my area.

@CAPE @nj2va @yoda if you guys could choose would you prefer a front loaded or back loaded winter if given the opportunity to pick?

I like the positivity!

Hey guys! Two questions. 1. Anyone care to guess what some of those cumulonimbi tops are in this ring wrapping around the center? 2. Anyone with aviation knowledge know what the p3 and other weather aircraft are programmed with or what is installed in the cone of the planes to avoid direct lightning strikes or how it is “safe” and I use that word laughing flying into something like this?

Would someone be kind enough to post the NAM and GFS or any type of model output that shows for VA DC etc as to what squall line will look like when it blows through tomorrow morning? Or is there a site I can access that would show this in a better manner than instant weather maps. *I have Pivotal weather as well. That seems to be a bit better wrt svr parameters they offer.

The verbiage on the Day 2 synopsis is concerning considering they go with possible strong tornadoes and an outbreak and mention southern va and areas around. Not sure I’ve ever seen that in the 10 years I’ve lived here myself except maybe one time but the ingredients never came together.

Gut shot would say anyone north and west of I40 would have the best odds we've had in a very long time. GGEM has been furthest south and more of a swing and a miss. GFS is and has been the most amped and Euro and ICON have been best case scenarios for a couple runs for the northern folks of the forum.

Makes sense then. Be honest man with the way the winter has been it's great to see for the time being and I'd rather be in the euro camp with this years trends etc bc the GFS has been the euro's biatch. Knocking on wood as we speak so I dont jinx the 0z Euro run. Hopefully GEFS improved because there were some decent hits at 18z.

Not even saying this because I'm wish casting but GFS has been atrocious with next weekend's storm. It has a different solution it seems almost every Zulu run. Now has cutter up into southern Ohio. Wont buy it until Euro and other models show something similar. Euro Canadian and Icon all in a similar camp compared to GFS.

Lmao just beat me to it. Was typing as you were posting.

FWIW ICON has been an absolute crush job for the 81 corridor back into the NW NC mountains. Granted it is the ICON but it has been known to have scored a coup or two in the past and has the backing of the Euro and to a lesser extent the GFS (but only because of temp issues). Pretty big signal between models that next weekend someone will be skiing or swimming.

Going to be super nitpicky and say the western shield would probably be much more expansive. Big time snow track for western portions of the area with a low track over RIC.

Do you put a lot of faith into GEFS and GEPS? I feel like it has weenie crushed all winter long. There were a couple really good "false" events it showed and was darn consistent and then got destroyed by the Euro. I feel like at this point it can either prove the Euro wrong for once this winter or the Euro is just that good. I guess time will tell.

I would never complain again hahahaha.

I saw you in here so I figured I'd make things easier on you hahahaha.

Not trying to be the debbie downer here but I think I'm ready to be reaped. I've tried all year to be positive but it seems like we all hope every 10 days out will be "that" storm to where it ends up being short sleeves and record highs. If I keep living in fantasy land before I know it I'm going to be needing to watch the tropics. This has been nothing short of disastrous. I want to hope that Bob, PSU and everyone else is right in pattern change sooner than later but we are running out of time and quickly. I'm not saying I'm getting my panties in a bunch bc next weekend doesn't look as promising but it's like every 10 days here the pattern has looked much better and then we go back to wtf is happening? I hope I'm proven wrong bc I truly love snow. Done ranting back to weather and tracking!

At least we can go with experience and know that the GFS has the tendency to drive low pressures into the highs and we all know how that normally plays out (gets forced a lot further south and east).