Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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Still snowing past that time frame as well up our way at least.
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Looks like there’s a consensus forming here on the 18z models thus far. RGEM, NAM and ICON all have the low paralleling the coast up toward the outer banks now and one would suspect that the 18z CMC once it comes out would show something similar.
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Jesus ICON just sits off Hatteras for hours and barely moves.
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ICON also juiced up at 36 run still ongoing on TT
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Just off the 18z nam runs but it makes me feel like my whole theory behind the fact that these lows tend to favor traveling along the Gulf Stream may end up coming to fruition. This is obv one run and it’s not the best model in the world but it wouldn’t be shocking if this is the ultimate outcome track wise. I guess something in the atmosphere is relaxing today to let this thing climb a little more up the coast.
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Yup. Plus to maximize accrual you’d want to have temps in the upper 20s to have it stick to everything. Antecedent conditions will obv help as well with the cold weather of late.
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The low on 3k is jumping around like crazy between hr37-40. I’m guessing it has to do with the convection and dynamics and what not. Hr 42 has the low over Tallahassee, whereas 12z had it southeast of MYR
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Ice is def nuts this go around down that way. Stay safe if it comes to fruition.
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CRUSHED! 3k is out to 34 and looks similar to 32k thus far.
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NAM scrapes the coastline this go around and has the low subsequently go from CHS at 48 to MYR at 51 and then a position JUST south of the outer banks at 54. Better track for the foothills and mountains of NC/VA. Gonna be some good weenie maps.
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Precip is much more expansive at 48 into eastern KY. Gonna be a great run for northern areas that are close to the fringe line this go around. RIC to ROA and down to the NC mountains are getting smoked! Low is literally JUST south of CHS, whereas 12z already had it e/se of Wilmington.
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Couldn’t agree more getting me giddy seeing the precip to my west and southwest on that run. Maybe this is the time frame Grit, myself and a lot of other people mentioned the precip shield correctly portraying this beast.
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Burg, if the system is slower does that help the n/s turn it more negative or is that negligible at this point?
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Ahhhh so I see! I did not know that.
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Is it known to be amped?? I know it can tend to have a cold bias.
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Yea the RGEM is straight nuts Burrell. Huge squall line modeled along with much more northern extension of snow with it. Lends credence to CMC that it may not be completely on crack. Kind of nuts with how close the event is now.
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@Disc @wncsnow @BornAgain13 Got to like the trends here at 12z. The RGEM is straight sexy! Has a completely different solution though. End of the 48hr run it tries to do some type of transfer with the low over Alabama. Big snows look like they would reach up here. Plus that is one hell of a squall line approaching northwestern FL. Goes to show the dynamics with this system. RGEM/3K/ICON/CMC ftw!! Euro looks improved as well!
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I will say the 3k nam is not that far off from it, at least up this way. Never say never it’s nailed these things several times before.
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James, 6z Canadian still looks really good for us. Let me know if the link worked http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-animation.php?mod=gemglb&run=06&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
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Canadian looks more like nam. Precip shield is more expansive on the northern side. I’d love to post images but my dumb a** forgot my password for American Wx site.
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I don’t believe the gfs for one second, unless everything starts doing this. Not wishcasting but the low is really not that far off from the same time frame on the 18z panel. Obv I worry about dry air intrusion from the HP up to our north and have worried about it all week but I just don’t see it being a final solution. Crazier things have happened.
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Do you believe it Bean? I cannot believe how much it made the northern precip vanish.
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GFS looks north at 36 see if it adjusts here. Edit: Looks similar at 42 now LP wise.
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It has a bias to be too cold.
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The nam has a mind if it’s own. No amp in it at all until now. I don’t think it’s amping tho as some alluded to it’s simply expanding the qpf shield like most thought it would as it got closer to game time.
