Windspeed
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Everything posted by Windspeed
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Uh oh...
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The fantasy Yucatan system is the same disturbance the GFS has consistently resolved in the 240+ hr range. Again, too far out to take seriously, but at least notable in the OPs consistency to keep an eye on that general monsoonal trough + wave interaction, and favorable upper 200 hPa vorticity for potentially something of interest around the mid-to-late month in the WATL. Interestingly, the fantasy EPAC system could interfere as a powerful hurricane could create less favorable downstream upper flow over Mexico into GOM. At any rate, far enough out that literally nothing might develop IRL in both basins.
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So far 2020 has been gangbusters. We're low on ACE considering number of named storms due to no majors or long-tracking storms with persistent hurricane intensity, but that is likely to change in a couple of weeks regardless of short-term development. We are still way ahead on ACE as well versus climatological mean.
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Well if we're going to play the ~300 hr fantasy land game, why hello there upper divergent atmospheric crack on steroids...
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This is somewhat ominous. Wind shear has been anomalously low. Sure, there has still been shear, hence Isaias' struggles and being kept in check through the Bahamas and east of Florida. Still, wasn't enough to kill it as we have seen in past seasons with early TCs. Climatological shear tends to reach its lowest point throughout the MDR and WATL by September. How anomalous lower shear heading into this period affects TCG and long-trackers remains to be seen, but it's enough to raise an eyebrow.
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Short but nice article by NOAA about tropical cyclone scientist, Isaac Monroe: Isaac Monroe Cline: The Cyclone Pioneer- 46 replies
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- historical tropical cyclones
- hurricanes
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Both the GFS and ECMWF, including their ensembles are quiet the next 10 days for TCG across the Atlantic Basin. The Euro op does hint at MDR development next week but we appear to be entering a break in activity. Not necessarily unwarranted. July was a busy month despite no TC getting especially intense. A climatological sharp rise in activity begins around the 19th. Most signals are still strong for a very active CV stretch of the season beginning in a few weeks and likely remaining that way through October. While we still have landfall and ECONUS impacts by Isaias to deal within the next 24 hours, after everything settles, enjoy the break.
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There's a 580 dm mid level trough / gyre extending west of the Cape Verdes. They do happen from time to time even in the EATL. But otherwise, the Azores heights have been doing their thing this year in typical fashion. Hence already having several MDR runners and strong 700 hPa wind bursts. In the first image, note the mid level trough. Also note 850 hPa vorticity field associated with TD10 riding northward and around. Regardless if TD10 gets named, it is doomed due to future encounter with marginal SSTs, but more importantly, the stable airmass about to blast off NW Africa due to, well, the Azores heights rebuilding and doing their thing again in a few days, i.e., nothing out of wack pattern-wise for any prolonged duration. Just a short-lived mid level PV trough about to get filled. See second image:
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What, nobody's going to create a TD10 thread?!.. /s [emoji854]
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This is not 93L but another wave behind it. 93L (a potential soon-to-be TC) moves NW somewhere west of the Verdes and dissipates. GFS wants to go gangbusters with the AEW behind it and grows a long-tracking deep MDR hurricane. Of note, the new GFS hasn't wanted to do jack squat with really any CV or MDR system up until now. Of course that is climatologically normal as typically this region doesn't start producing until mid August. Still...
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Uhm... This may get classified in short order. May not do anything crazy on a forecasted NW track into marginal waters and a more stable airmass. Still pretty suggestive ASCAT:
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The vortex was devoid of convection for long enough time that 30kt winds likely were not mixing down below 960 hPa. So it wasn't really premature on their part. However, as these things sometimes can do, convection has reformed near maximum vorticity. Could they reclassify it? The system is still sheared, though it looks like the southerly mid-to-upper flow may have backed down some. It's about to pass the dateline and out of the NHC/CPHC/TAFB responsibility. JTWC may pick it up if the trend continues. It would also be renamed if it reintensified into a TS. This should turn NW and then N around an retreating ridge and head off into the northern Pacific, regardless.
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The current AEW southeast of Cabo Verde has a vigorous and compact mid-level vortex. Though 92L was a larger and perhaps more impressive wave, it struggled maintaining any MCS with its mid level vort and failed to genesis before reaching a more hostile environment in the MDR. This wave on the other hand may do better entering the MDR if it can concentrate convection and close itself off at the surface. It certainly looks decent at the moment.
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Interestingly the new AEW near the CVs has decent model support for short-term TCG.
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Douglas got guillotined...
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I am not confident of eyewall interaction with the islands now. Yes the mid-level vortex is slightly tilted north of the low-level vortex, but the convection within the eye band looks like it may miss Oahu entirely if just clip Laie. It's possible that the mid-to-upper southerly flow is nudging the core more WNW besides causing shear. Edit: I should clarify the main islands. If the core were to somehow survive, it should cross the smaller Hawaiian Leeward Islands and atolls. I don't think it will manage that feat as a hurricane, surely not!
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Truly remarkable...
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Earlier in the thread, I doubted this would maintain hurricane intensity all the way into landfall, even with just gradual weakening. Douglas has surprised me to still have 80 kt sustained surface winds at its current location. That being said, it does look like the mid-level vortex is starting to tilt with increasing SSW directional flow above 500 hPa. I don't know, it's going to be a close shave to see if the islands get hurricane force gusts at sea level. Surely along volcanic peaks and ridges, but I feel like the biggest threat here could come from intense westerly orographic ascent producing flash flooding and debris flows. Not downplaying strong minimal cane/TS force gusts by any means if that is how it plays out. Definitely in rare event territory for Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Oahu. Hopefully enough significant weakening will lesson impacts by the time the llc reaches for Kauai.
