Windspeed

SHIPs RI is skyrocketing: [emoji102]

Based on organizational trends, I'm going to push all my chips in here and say Delta reaches major hurricane intensity by tomorrow evening and becomes a Category 4 by Wednesday. Too much going for Delta and Gamma's influence is now going to be minimal seeing as that vortex has no real mid-level circulation.

Visible alone reveals that short-term trend well enough. The system is getting stacked and moving into a better environment for intensification.

Based on short-term trends, I think you have to throw those out. The organization of the vortex looks way ahead of any modeling solution including the TC models.

Here's the 8AM EDT upgrade: 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051139 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 78.4W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.4 West. The storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the tropical storm is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

Looks like an inner core is beginning to form. Also looks south of the official estimated position. If this is the case, the next 36 hours are going to be gangbusters.

That's not far off from a hypothetical unfolding. It could reach Cat 4 and then weaken rapidly prior to landfall.

Convection is flaring up nicely over the center. This seems ahead of schedule for TCG. Parameters are favorable for significant intensification by the time this reaches the straits. Could very well be an overperformer, perhaps even a major by the time it reaches the central GOM. Then significant weakening into landfall. If it becomes a large hurricane, significant surge will be the story here.

2018 October, this year is not. Been a number of frontal boundaries and several TCs already in the N. GOM to kill shallow heat content. But as GOL pointed out, SW FL is still very much in play for a major through the remainder of the month. 92L likely won't be the last W. Caribbean system during the next three weeks.

Landfall. Gamma didn't pull off the upgrade. Trivial as far as impacts, but obviously those seasonal numbers.... 000 WTNT65 KNHC 031658 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TULUM, MEXICO... Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall in the northeast Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum, Mexico, around 1145 AM CDT. The storm was very close to hurricane strength at landfall, with maximum sustained winds near 70 MPH (110 MPH) with higher gusts. A weather station at Xel-Ha Park, along the Yucatan coast just north of Tulum, reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) within the past hour. SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 87.5W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch

92L is quite convectively active this morning. Good divergence and CAPE associated with this system. Additionally there is already good inflow and convergence notable on visible. Yet the ECMWF is yet to do jack squat with this system during lead time just like a few days ago when it missed with Gamma. We shall see.

Getting close.

Dueling CBs within the CDO with enough distance off the Rivera Maya coast that Gamma may very well attain hurricane intensity by landfall. Been a number of these this year.

Unbelievable... Safety first and foremost but damn we've been plagued this year with flight issues. Pun intended.

The 12z GFSv15 does try to develop the current wave in the ECARIB but gets it too close to the Yucatan Peninsula. It is inland too long and also gets bypassed by the trough. The second wave evolves CAG characteristics further west and breaks off into the EPAC. This is of course a single operational run solution but let's go ahead and cancel the remainder of the season. Trollololo... That being said, let's look at the 12z GFSv16 (para). It develops the first wave much quicker south of Cuba near to Jamaica. It also gains enough latitude to get caught into the southwesterlies associated with the digging trough. This turns the first potential TC, at this point a hurricane into and across the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, the para develops the second ITCZ wave out of convergence off Venezuela and then goes bananas, having a second TC bombing out in the NW Caribbean into the long range. Varying solutions but pretty much the overall theme here continues to be increased chances of TCG somewhere in the NW Caribbean. That hasn't really changed. I should also add that this morning's ECMWF ensemble continues to show tight clusters of TCG in the NW Caribbean through the medium range as well. Does this guarantee we'll have a WCARIB hurricane? No, but there's not really anything to prove we won't. Likewise, the season isn't dead. We'll revisit that topic in about five more weeks once the next favorable CCKW has passed.

SSTs are obviously not going to be an issue in the NW Caribbean. There will be some cold fronts that will cool the N. GOM but the SE GOM should remain quite warm for anything that would/could potentially hook into Southwesterly flow and head across the Florida Peninsula. Bigger influences will be stacked vs sheared flow, land influences (Yucatan, Cuba) and how intense a hypothetical TC would become prior to entry into the SE GOM.

Here comes the first wave that has model support. The GFS15 vs 16(para) have varying solutions. The first wave near the Lesser Antilles is much more vigorously modeled by the GFS to become the intense hurricane. The para wants to throw down the gauntlet on the second wave currently out over the MDR. At any rate, chances are we'll have some sort of W. Caribbean action by next weekend. The ECMWF ensembles are increasing support as well for something developing. We're getting closer to the mid range.

Both the GFS op and the parallel are now picking up on TCG in the deep Caribbean to Western Caribbean in the mid-to-long range. The ECMWF shows zilch. However its ensembles are now showing possible development in the WCARIB as well, all roughly within a 100 hr variance. The para is faster than the operational with development and potential TCG.

Yeah that's about as La Niña signal result as it gets...

For me, two more majors, regardless of land interaction. The lack of them this season is really the only thing blowing it out the roof. I get they mean squat if nobody is affected. However, climatologically-speaking, any majors from this point forward would likely be Caribbean-based storms and virtually guaranteed to hit land.

What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory?

Oops. My bad. Thanks for the correction. Had Maria as an early October system in my head. No stretch at all there, more like just flat incorrect.

If someone would have told me we'd end up with 25+ named storms and only two majors, I'd have laughed them off the forum. Yet that is now a real possibility.

Well we got a CONUS intense landfall out of the way. There are inactive years here and there that have these (Andrew '92) albeit rare. But we've seemingly had everything this year except an Atlantic Cat 5. Those used to be rare, but since 2016, Octobers alone have given us three (Matthew, Maria and Michael). Wild all were 'M' storms. Mu anyone?