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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Gfs looks sorta like PD2 with that east-west area of overrunning snow for 12+ hours. I'll take that and call it a season if I had to. Lol
  2. mitchnick
    I was expecting the Gefs and especially the Eps to hold serve over the last run, if not improve, but they reduced snowfall. Wtf
  3. mitchnick
    Imho, as a big believer in seasonal patterns, you always want to be in the bullseye for the first meaningful snowfall. This year, to my/our south. Then to see maps like that just make the other half of me crazy since I started at 50%.
  4. mitchnick
    Brutal 12z Euro run for S Central PA. I don't know whether to laugh or cry, but believe it's possible in light of seasonal pattern. This one's for you Bubbler...and me. Lol
  5. mitchnick
    Gem has been very inconsistent in the longer range for a while, BUT not with this storm. That's 3 runs in a row showing the storm, twice as snow and once as rain. At that range, that's a very decent signal for something other than cold and dry.
  6. mitchnick
    Ukie has a storm at 168hrs, but would be close on temps. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025011212&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  7. mitchnick
    Almost looks like PD2 at the end of the Gfs run...almost.
  8. mitchnick
    Gefs still have a reasonable signal for the 19th-20th fwiw.
  9. mitchnick
    In addition to a decent snow, Canadian looks like this at day 10.
  10. mitchnick
    I would love to see this play out in real life. Pivotal visibility map is nothing short of a weenie dream. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=visibility-imp&rh=2025011206&fh=384&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  11. mitchnick
    0z Geps and Eps both show 4" snowfall all after day 7 and 6z Gefs is 4.5" all after day 7. That is really impressive from this range and for such a short period on ensembles. 6z Gfs operational is what you'd expect to see (finally) with its ensemble results.
  12. mitchnick
    At least there's a storm on the Canadian, despite "minor" changes to its 12z run.
  13. mitchnick
    Stronger trough out west on Canadian pumps the ridge a bit more than 12z, so it's warmer. But at 9 days, who cares. At least there's a storm.
  14. mitchnick
    Beats the avocado.
  15. mitchnick
    We'll have a better chance with the Canadian than Gfs.
  16. mitchnick
    Like I said earlier, I believe we need the ridge from the Atlantic into the coast. Everything that I've seen that gives us snow has that. I believe without that blocking ridge, the risk of sliding to the east or south is great. It's pretty much that simple but it is definitely too early to know. Reporting model runs, whatever they may show, is something we do.
  17. mitchnick
    Look, I know how the game is played. Point out nothing but positive, and everybody is happy. Point out that there are no guarantees and there are ways to lose, and you're the goat. So what? All options are on the table at this point, including success and failure of the ensembles. I'm as hungry as anyone else for snow, but ignoring credible scenarios that could results in failure has always been part of the discussion and just end in more disappointment should they occur if not discussed.
  18. mitchnick
    Yes, but like all the rest, is not perfect. Heisey seems to follow it closer than I do and he believes it's done very well. Past 240 hrs, imho it's no better than any of the ensembles. But you know how it goes, they all have hot hands and cold ones, but never know which it is until the forecast period has past.
  19. mitchnick
    Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast.
  20. mitchnick
    I admit this is all a waste of time (lol), but imho if you don't have that ridging you're just going to have a storm too far off the coast. Fortunately, all the modeling will change enough come 0z that we'll never know.
  21. mitchnick
    You may be right, but I also mentioned the boundary was pushed off the coast. Comparing the 18z Gefs to 12z Geps and you can see on the Geps the ridge nosing west onto the eastern seaboard. Eps looks very similar to Geps. That's my point, whether calling it overwhelmingly cold or pushing the boundary too far off the coast is irrelevant to my point really. Gfs/Gefs, if correct, will not get us to a result like the other 2 suites imho.
  22. mitchnick
    It'll be next weekend at this time before we have a better handle, and probably won't have it nailed down by then either. Lol
  23. mitchnick
    But the 12z Gefs were pretty cold. They pushed the boundary off the coast at 240hrs and didn't have the overrunning. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=850t_anom-mean&rh=2025011112&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  24. mitchnick
    Gfs used to have that bias big time but that seemed to have been corrected. But as long as the ensembles look good, I'll just sit tight.
  25. mitchnick
    I was referring to the day 10 period. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2025011118&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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