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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Fyi, today's weeklies just out maintain BN a lot the first 2 weeks, then keep us normal until the week of 2/17-24. That is a major can-kick from the last several days that had AN getting here starting the week of 2/3. Fwiw, AN precip the week starting 1/27 and then normal thru 2/24.
  2. mitchnick
    Euro AI 12z still has Sunday event and it looks even drier than 6z but you'll need the better maps in an hour or so to confirm. I seriously doubt it's more however. No other snow on the run short of a very little bit from a clipper.
  3. mitchnick
    Thanks for the shout out... Now get outta' here kid, ya' bother me! :p
  4. mitchnick
    Fast flow and dryness, the preceeding probably the cause of the latter, is our nemesis. Nothing we can do about it. I haven't bothered to find out why, but the Gefs keep piling up snow past 180hrs. 3" imby. Seems crazy.
  5. mitchnick
    Maybe it left some energy behind?
  6. mitchnick
    Sorry....driving.
  7. mitchnick
    Ukie 2-4"
  8. mitchnick
    Fortunately, that under control
  9. mitchnick
    No, but my BP is! Lol
  10. mitchnick
    Lol nice hit with a 2nd gasp
  11. mitchnick
    Gem faked us out
  12. mitchnick
    That's usually not a good omen for us, but I guess we'll see
  13. mitchnick
    2-4+"
  14. mitchnick
    Can we just hold this Gfs run for this event
  15. mitchnick
    Always a scary thought.
  16. mitchnick
    Our definition of overrunning patterns apparently differ, but the ensembles look fine.
  17. mitchnick
    Exactly where did I say anything negative about the ensembles? Where? I said the overrunning pattern, except for the Canadian, "appears off the table." I didn't say that meant snow chances were bad. How could you have read that into my statement?
  18. mitchnick
    AI is weak, dry sauce for next weekend. Except for the Canadian, the advertised overrunning pattern appears off the table, so who knows what's next. 6z Gefs got cooler and is looking more like the Eps by keeping it cold thru the end of the run.
  19. mitchnick
    6z Gfs is in the process of shifting s&e imho. Right now, eastern areas not treated too well. I think it ends up like Euro was looking before Euro sorta lost the signal at 0z. 6z is almost out and should be in range to give us a hint.
  20. mitchnick
    6z Gfs moved the slp toward the coast for Sunday and hits west and north lightly. Wag is it continues south and east. Euro basically lost it at 0z.
  21. mitchnick
    Gfs has the now "near" end of the run significant snowstorm.
  22. mitchnick
    Ukie has a storm at around 162hrs that is slow to getvits act together and warm for cities. Nothing big.
  23. mitchnick
    Oddly weak on qpf
  24. mitchnick
    Gem and Gfs are on different planets at 150hrs.
  25. mitchnick
    You don't have to apologize. I hate the effin Euro. Always overforecasts snow imby the run before start-time. Happened twice this year. It's hit or miss like every other model. That said, there are verification stats at this link down the bottom of the page prepared by the Euro folks. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]}
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