Heisy

Wow, March 20 58 is almost identical, although it had a better ridge behind it. Very similar setup though

Will you have a good site to look up old H5 maps? Plymouth used to have one but I can’t find it.

We had 2 failed poyential events, it could be a lot worse. We could be staring at 50-60s, but alas we have another threat. Can’t complain at least something to track imo

Gfs driving the boat? On which planet?

True, it does show up on the guidance though, that lead wave can’t do it by itself with the confluence that strong and no ridging behind it. You kind of see hints of it on the cmc as well. Was just pointing it out as another way we could get screwed lol

Lol, That’s the pattern changer though no worries

Still, it’s in a good spot knowing how we’ve trended this year with confluence trending better and better recently

Psuhoff, You know what’s funny. The storm that forms on the euro is actually from another pac piece that breaks off and rounds the base of the trough. Normally that lead shortwave would just take advantage of the cold, but no, it gets delayed and that other shortwave turns the corner and forms a major low, but by this time a loT of the cold is eroded.

12z cmc is much colder than gfs for 2nd

Yea i just want to shake it up and looks like we’ll get that, probably after a that cutter that’s being progged day 10-12. This current pattern is just not working.

Looks like some really good MJO news. We’ll have opportunities in February. We may start playing with a -epo or +pna by first week or so

Ukie at 144, can’t complain about this look . Feel like that would keep rotating east under the hp

Yea my fault, Sv doesn’t offer much on the icon, this is what I got which is annoying to decipher since it overdoes snow for some reason

Yeah, it’s been out for a while, storm vista, like 20 bucks a month. Graphics aren’t the best, but the interface is good and loads fast as hell

It’s an interesting setup. The H5 reminds me of a progression you’d see in March

CMC crushes you guys too. Slow moving ULL that just sits and spins from the effects of the block.

Icon has some front end I thought? I could only see surface temps and accum precip so was hard to tell what was going on. It’s a close call for you guys. Gfs and cmc nail New England. Philly does well on front end too. The backside of trough kind of rotates around the trough since the block just stops all movement. The way this year has trended its fine at this point. It’s a marginal setup but there is decent cold ahead, but the gradient is pretty far north. Well see, with how these two events have trended im happy just to be able to track another one. The chances of tomorrow quell the pain of today.

Yea the key is the remnants of Thursday’s storm and the tpv phasing into the 50/50. There’s no where for this ULl to go. It’s a classic front end, drizzle setup imo. As long as we don’t see some funky changes on how the western energy comes east id bet we see some good runs tonight

Thanks for info, but can you elaborate on that? Single system as in one model?

00z icon is gonna be a nice hit day 7 . Don’t have H5 yet but looking at temps and precip looks fine

That’s a really sweet gefs run for the 2nd. Long way to figure out how that energy comes out of the west, but we take. I want another noreaster to chase

Idk, pretty much every meaningful factor is trending the wrong way. More progressive wave, less spacing as psu just noted, better tpv press (which actually might help the day 7 event). If anything I think this may continue to trend farther East.

Ji. JMA looks decent at the end of its run.

Most of us on here aren’t meteorologists. We’re storm Enthusiasts....unless you’re completely new to this wx world every one of us knows not to go all in in situations like that. It’s just part of the fun. Hell, the 00z gfs run the other night was the most fun I had all winter lol. I obv knew it was at the extreme north side of guidance as I’m sure others did too. Relax with hurricane man. Why the hate?

It takes place outside of January 2021 so that’s a plus. Nice high pressure showing up. At least it’s something else to track.