Heisy

Yep. It’s why I put up caution flags once the Op gfs trended that way. Now, we do have a decent 50/50 and I wouldn’t discount some front end. We could hope that main shortwave trends faster and stays more disconnected from the lower heights west of the block. I just would not expect a pure classic snowstorm at this range. This has sloppy mess written all over it. I also agree that this event may set the stage for the one around the 30th. See now you’ve trapped lower heights under the block. Youd want that confluence to be a bit better, but it’s a more favorable look. Then again now we’re talking day 10+ & what can go wrong this winter will go wrong so far, is what it is.

As pointed out by tombo on another forum relating to my post. Issue is with the block Rotating kind of in a non ideal fashion. It’s going from North to South instead of a E-W track. You then get HP squeezed from the SE ridge extending to the block. We could still get WAA snows, but this could be a problem for an all snow event. It’s still the best look we’ve had in a while and many days out. This 00z trend though is an issue to keep an eye on. With a normal block you would have pinched off lower heights near the lakes and better confluence out ahead of the main low.

Yesterday I mentioned that issue with the ULL/lower heights rotating west of the block. You know, the post with 15 arrows lol....Well, this is unfortunately the trend last night. This allows heights to really rise. Still, this far out we could see the 50/50 trend better and other things change. All options on the table, but that’s one thing I wasn’t a fan of. This ULL being there helps the ridge build better.

I’m not comparing the setups, but I thought the vort looked very similar to an underrated Philly storm. Jan 2011. Heaviest snow I’d here until March 18. gfs and 2011 both had these angry little closed shortwaves. It’ll be different in 6 hours, but...

My bad, this better?

Note the differences here. Euro is actually all southern stream, gfs phases NS in.

There was a nice back door shortwave that rotated near N NE from the 50/50 that helped hold confluence. Gfs and euro handle the south central Canadian ULL completely differently though, but at this range that’s to be expected. Great run improvements today

If we get shutout in the medium-10 day range I’ve not lost hope for early feb yet. Ensembles across the board in the Uber LR are showing lower heights (cold) on our side of the hemisphere. This pattern looks zonal, but imo it also screams northern stream flat wave/Miller Bs. I like this look for NE more than anything we are seeing over the next 7-10 days. This is supported across gefs, cmc end, eps. As tombo pointed out on our phillywx forum. Follow the height lines. Cold is finally directed towards us. This is a pure NS pattern. There’s also a hint of the block trying to rebuild, but we’ll see about that. This pattern would heavily favor NE over my area in Philly/MId Atlantic imho. I’m not fully crossing off the next 7-10 days, could see a low end event. I’m more confident towards end of the month if this holds. Sorry for the bad graphics it’s the best I can do lmao. *As pointed out on my forum mjo headed towards more favorable phase along with CFS showing AN precip with a very Miller b-ish look.

The flow just seems too zonal for anything substantial. A dusting-2” type? Yeah I could see that right now. Idk this zonal look has been showing up for a while. Might have to chase some LES when one of these NS waves rotates around the block

What an incredibly frustrating GFS and CMC run. As much as it sucks this is run after run leaving our region high and dry. Can’t discard it. I wonder what happens to the pattern after the nao block retrogrades completely and has to rebuild. Probably have a pattern relaxation and you know we’ll probably fit a rain event in there somewhere with our luck

Hey Ji this looks like it would have delivered. Need to work on the configuration of the NS. Good agreement today we’ll have a wave come east out of the -pna around day 9.

Ain’t nobody got time for that. Haha, there’s about the same odds of me plugging in my phone before bed as a 2 ft dc snowstorm. this was a solid GFS run. It looked more like the euro early on and focuses on that same wave coming out of the southwest that the EPS did

Gonna get crushed, but nice trend towards EPS and nothing like OP euro.

Happy hour mischief? Much better setup for the event the EPS was signaling

Not me. After how this winter has been I’d sign off on 12” in a heartbeat, and I live in Philly. Just give it to me in one storm and I’m good to go.

When the euro is rain/miss and the others show snow you bet your ass the others would cave. Vice versa. It’s uncanny, but I’m hanging in there. The timing of both the streams is terrible this year.

It’s a wait and see game right now. Models still varying on timing of northern and southern stream. How much energy gets buried in southwest. When/how far S does NS get. All will play a factor. Like the pattern but feel like bad timing could also screw things up a bit. Hopefully not. I thought my 76ers were getting James Harden yesterday and look what happened! Lol...can your wizards trade us Bradley Beal instead please thanks!

Yeah, but what else is there to talk about Ralph lol. New eagles coach?! James harden a sizer?! There’s not really a good shot for anything until then.

Euro has a much better 50/50 for the day 9-10 event which is why it is colder. You see on the OP gfs and cmc what happens without it. Temps would struggle as H5 ULL and HP placement isn’t ideal. Looks like a classic thump setup though. Not a great airmass yet, I think that comes the week of the 25th, but def a signal for an event on the 22-23rd, just going to rely on the placement and strength of 50/50. Lately, (most of the time anyway) the models cave to the euro so hopefully we see some colder solutions on the globals today for next week. I think the potential prime pattern setup starts Sunday the 24 through that week as -epo colder temps start seeping into the region. Get some -pna energy to start heading east with the block in place hopefully things work out.

Be careful with these types of fronts. They’re fast moving and remember the precip is what has fallen over the last 6 hours. Obviously you know that, but a lot of new members might not, just pointing it out.

18z GEFS. Sorry stormvista maps not as pretty as others

Those radar charts take me back lol

Lol. It’s still a good setup as the -PNA energy bleeds east under the block. Just need to pray the block stays as strong as pronged. I like the week of the 25th. Although I’m not discounting some snow before that if things shake out right.

Need a more neutral trough as it heads east or the northern part of the shortwave will crush it. There are a couple MECSs on the 6z individuals. GEPS likes it too. The other issue is the kicker behind it with the fast flow we’ve been having. That many big hitters on the individuals tells me there’s a small % we see some 12z changes with this event. (Crosses fingers)

00z icon brought the day 6 event up the coast. And gfs looks better so far...