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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Eagles are resting everyone. If you guys don’t beat us you don’t deserve a team
  2. Heisy
    The real wildcard is the rogue vort over se Canada that splits off and then rotates south. All the models had that piece today except the Ukie. It can go extremely well like the para and you get a full on phase, or crappy like cmc and euro where it’s late and kind of slingshots it east. We’re 6 days out right now. No where close to a solution
  3. Heisy
    6z gefs had a very nice improvement
  4. Heisy
    Looking beyond the 8th...Can’t really ask for a better signal here. Obviously you hope the timing/strength/placement works out, but this is about as good as it gets at this range:
  5. Heisy
    This was close to the first pure weenie runs of the new pattern. Hopefully euro comes a bit on board tonight
  6. Heisy
    Needed a little bit more confluence with that New England wave, but that was a HECS signal
  7. Heisy
    Meanwhile the para is trying to do a March 2001 scenario lol (ULL dropping down from east Canada and phasing, you don’t see that often)
  8. Heisy
    Kind of has qualities of a late March bowling system where you only would see snowfall in the heavy ccb region.
  9. Heisy
    I agree. Would be nice to have something diving down to at least tug it north a tad, you can see it does do that but not until it’s off the coast
  10. Heisy
    It’s hard to know, but the Ukie could be in a good spot here. Trough is neutral and going negative it seems. Just throwing it out there. It does seem a little cutoff from the flow so idk how north it would go. I can’t decide if it’s good or not lol
  11. Heisy
    Trough goes negative slightly too late. If we had that northern energy start to drop South a bit sooner or if the shortwave negatively tilted a bit sooner would have been nice. with bowling ball events like this the models are going to have an extremely tough time. I wouldn’t worry one way or another until we get it to 96 hours... better news is both cmc and gfs have really good patterns after this one on today’s runs.
  12. Heisy
    6z para is a different story in the LR for now. I would never look at the OP gfs. Idk why but it seems a lot of excitement on wx forums doesn’t start until the LR gfs shows a hit, but it’s a horrific model. Stick to the ensembles. Not telling you to be unrealistic but we need some more patience. If we get to feb without a few inches yeah maybe start to get concerned
  13. Heisy
    EPS looks fine to me. There could be a relaxation, but pac improves. Rememver our pattern change wasn’t until after this potential event. This would just be icing on the cake. Still forever to go. I’d favor maybe the southeast and mid Atlantic right now. Think euro OP didn’t have a ton of support who knows
  14. Heisy
    Please don’t ban me. Lol... The model lead up before this was pretty epic. A damn shame. Do you remember me texting you on AIM the night before the storm after the ETA went east? Think my messanger name was b35jnelley but idk haha. Don’t ask me why I remember that this storm is very nostalgic for me it was when I first got into wx.
  15. Heisy
    Yep pretty good cave at H5 there. It’s not there yet, but was way closer than 12z was.
  16. Heisy
    Snow map from gfs kind of has those same qualities. This means nothing though. No two storms are ever the same like psu said. I just use the cips site to see if heavy hitters are showing up.
  17. Heisy
    No it was December 30 2000. Huge dc bust. Accumulated partly sunny skies I believe lol. Forecast was like 4-8” the night of the storm. Miller b developed too Far East. Here in Philly we got 8” but Just a few miles west got nothing
  18. Heisy
    I know, sorry. I had posted on another forum that it looked like dec 30 a bit while the gfs was coming out. It does have a lot of Miller b attributes so far on the modeling. Apologies in advance let me add. Obvious differences here, but both dec 30 event and this one were bowling ball events. Probably why it’s showing up on cips along with the block.
  19. Heisy
    Interesting December 27 2000 shows up on the analog list. (Obv similar pattern to the dec 30 storm) I thought the gfs snowfall map and precip orientation looked very similar
  20. Heisy
    It’s not atrocious, but this run keeps the heavy stuff off shore. Not saying gfs is right at all, just throwing it out there
  21. Heisy
    If those dynamics don’t get over you temps will be a major issue. It’s the gfs so not taking it verbatim, but 18z keeps heavy stuff off shore. Look at surface temps...this is at 70 hours
  22. Heisy
    Really? All upset over a day 7-8 euro run that was a few miles from being a hit?
  23. Heisy
    Feels like I’ve been tracking this event for 2 months. Hard to bet against the euro, but it has caved before.
  24. Heisy
    Man this looks good
  25. Heisy
    No problem. I get a little front end in Philly, over to rain and then back to snow I guess. Nice hit for the burbs down here. Hoping i get to chase this next one to NH and stay home for the 8th
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