Heisy

Don, statistically does having this strong of a recent -AO correlate to it coming back negative in a certain time period? Like you just said predicting it is almost impossible, but I guess I’m just asking do you think we could see one more blocking period in March?

Yes. As long as guidance shows any chance at 1 or 2 feet I’m in. Living in Philly could be the last chance for me to see snow for 9months. Call me crazy idc!

Does kuchera usually end up accurate at all up your way? It seems to love the south shore over the events. Pretty crazy difference between 10:1, think it’s like 20:1

Icon has some snow Thursday for northern sections. Colder than 12z, getting there. (This is total entire run)

Which supports the warm Tuesday—cold Thursday idea. There’s also more west coast ridging on GEFS vs eps. I wonder if that’s why the GEFS digs the wave deeper

Lmao we are the worst ok mattg?!

Yep, originally it seemed this weekend wave was going to help shift the ULL into a good spot to hold the cold air in. It does suck to lose our pack, but on a silver lining the cmc has lead the way with Tuesday so maybe we hang out hats on it....until of course it shows 50 degree rain storm at 00z

Imo if you want a colder Thursday system root for Tuesday to be as warm and rainy as possible Ha. The models are seemingly trending to slow down the exit of the tpv more and more. This leads to more phasing and boosts the ridge. While that hurts Tuesday it could help Thursday. This is interesting to me. The cmc, which has lead the way so far with not booting the tpv out barely has it moving on its 18z run. This looks like it would set a decent stage for Thursday but idk...and yes there is an 18z CMC (not rgem), but for some reason only this site has it

Nice. Feels like our last chance:( You know it has that depressing end of winter feel when a pattern breaks down, but when you take a step back you realize, hell, the end of the gfs run doesn’t even take us to March 1. With all the blocking this year who says we don’t have one more week or so of a decent pattern to work with in March.

Thursday ticked colder on eps

18zEps looked pretty good for Thursday

It looks like more phasing of the TPV lobe occurring. Gotta keep an eye on that.

...and also here was H5 18z euro @ 90. (End of run)

Since you’ve adopted me unfortunately for the next week. Here is 18z euro at end of the run. Ticked a bit N it seems for comparison here was 12z same period

Yeah the CMC has lead the way with this one where the TPV hangs back more and you see more phasing. Pretty large shifts today between the GFS/Euro camp towards that solution. Probably ends up being a blend

I’m the Amwx forum snow-nut chaser. Please welcome me to the party. Pretty sick euro run. Now where do I chase!?

NAM gonna have more precip I think edit. Well it’s wetter down in NC early on vs 12z. But we’ll see where it heads.

Pretty big win for the cmc/NAM camp If it holds

Euro trending more like cmc with phasing of the tpv, would warm things up here. Now looks like Thursday may be a better threat for frozen heh

I always wonder how much the models account for urban heat islands. I live in Northeast so we are a little colder than like center city etc. I’ve seen ice accru on my sidewalks and backstreets before but not enough to make it dangerous. I won’t be driving but any frozen precip is fun to track. Wonder if it starts as some sleet here

I’m wondering if we can get the blocking to return by the very end of the month. I’d love to roll the dice with another block in marchs bowling season.

Sounds like a dream storm to me. We’ve had some incredible rates in Philly in a few storms over the last 20 years, but none like that which lasted long enough for 20+...Jan 2011 part 2, March 2018 thunder snow event. Amazing but short lasting. I was out of town for feb 2006s morning ccb band. Few others I’m sure. Wish there was video of the event somewhere. I was born 86 so my memory of snowstorms start around 93 or so.

I’d post gif but not sure how to on here to compare runs, but regardless I agree the euro has sucked lately especially, was just posting for prosperity. The eps actually looked better surprisingly. Very odd storm right now on the guidance. This is like ptype nightmare to the max.

Wasn’t a fan of 18z euro at the end of run fwiw. Less tpv press and more separation between waves. Heights ticked higher as well.