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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Euro/gfs have that too just not in same spot. It’s the frontal boundary from high. Could be some lead precip out ahead of the low. This is from gfs but you get the idea.
  2. Heisy
    I bet as we get closer models trend warmer at the surface towards the city. Probably end up like 27 at onset going up to 32-33. Obv this changes if it’s a strung out mess...LV different story I just don’t see Philly sitting below 20 degrees during a precip event. That ain’t happening though it’s nice to dream
  3. Heisy
    Agreed. I bet we get a weenie gfs run at 12z as it ticks SE like rest of guidance. I hope at least. Give me 6 hours of bliss lol
  4. Heisy
    Separation seems slightly worse but not game ending. This would still work the main vort is just weaker
  5. Heisy
    Don’t have H5 yet but icon is farther SE. 12z NAM also looked like it wanted to do a CMC progression. Would be seasonal trend. Man the euro is hot garbage right now
  6. Heisy
    12z icon looks much farther SE. I can’t tell if it’s doing a NAM/CMc progression though, don’t have H5 yet just slp/precip
  7. Heisy
    The out of range NAM looks to be doing a similar progression as CMC. Just something to keep an eye on, it could completely screw up the spacing and the event itself.
  8. Heisy
    Yes, that’s the biggest threat to the system right now
  9. Heisy
    CMC ensemble don’t agree with the OP. It actually looks pretty decent with better spacing & cold press
  10. Heisy
    I’m here haha was up late sticking my head out windows and walking around the block like a nut. I was pretty down on it after a few of those EPS runs but even the 6z made a nice jog SE. I appreciate the credit it was kind of how I saw the pattern progressing. Sucks the para stopped running again it looked good at the end of its run last nights. Let’s keep working on the spacing and we’re good to go.
  11. Heisy
    Psu you nailed it. The models are trending better with hanging the TPV around more which is suppressing the follow up wave. The 00z & 6z cmc go as far as making it so slow to depart that no true storm would form because there’s no spacing. Few more shifts and dc thru Philly are in the game.
  12. Heisy
    No separation between the tpv and main wave so it gets all fooked. It’s likely wrong, not much support for that at all
  13. Heisy
    Dude you and I are soul mates, sorry haha. I’d take 2 feet of ice, let’s do it. No power for a month and National guard
  14. Heisy
    Seems odd though how often do you see a snow event with snow all the way out to upstate ny and here at the same time
  15. Heisy
    Yea cmc doesn’t have wave separation with the tpv so it gets all fooked. Meanwhile the Ukie is a hit
  16. Heisy
    Gfs is an epic ice storm next week
  17. Heisy
    Where you at birds?
  18. Heisy
    Yeah I think it’s insane. I bet tonight it ticks warmer again. This screams sleet storm to me personally. Just hopefully not rain
  19. Heisy
    Ice totals for weekend off euro. Looks like sleet probably mixed in too
  20. Heisy
    Yea I agre. This smells like a sleet bomb to me personally. 18z para well S of GFS. Let’s hope for a shift S tonight on op and euro
  21. Heisy
    Oh I def agree. The low level cold is 10x better, but mid level would be a different story. Idc if it’s 0f the day before nothing stops the mid levels unless we see better vort pass and confluence
  22. Heisy
    Here’s a model run I saved from December. I’m sure the final result was somewhat like this, but either way, Canada was def a bit different but both had similar ridging issues on EC and trough axis with main vort
  23. Heisy
    Not saying it’s right, so don’t kill me, but this trough axis is positive way too fast. Kind of like the December event. This one would have a much better lower level cold airmass so I think euro is scouring out the cold too fast, but we need to work on this look. It took a step though as psu noted so that’s good.
  24. Heisy
    My new bar is 4.5” for this one now lol. I love to set myself up for disappointment.
  25. Heisy
    Most of the old members from this site are on phillywx.com forum Ralph. He used to post here.
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