Heisy

It was about to show a blizzard, so yes .

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Wow! .

The OP looks REALLY CLOSE here. I’d love to see what it would have done beyond 144 .

18z Euro Ai keeping hope slightly alive for next week, 12z eps still had a few good members in there. .

Gravity waves .

I’m in Bensalem right NE of the city and we had a heavy band just come through which was puking snow, now pingers mixing in. I have 6+ here, with sleet I’ll probably finish close to 8, there’s just no way most of MA doesn’t end up with 20-24” with spotty +2’ .

The Ai models had a better clue with the strength of the Baja low, but I think as we got closer we got better sampling of the northern stream that was diving over the ridge. Eventually it was obvious the phase was going to happen and suppression was out the window. Friend of mine flew up to Needham to chase, wish I was out near you guys right now. Enjoy .

AiGFS just missed the storm of the century Bombs it out to 960s in the Atlantic .

How much sleet did we get in the 2007 storm. This has to be up there in one of the most we’ve gotten in a while right? .

I’ve been mentioning 12/20 for 4 days now over on our discord. It’s in the top 5 of analogs as of yesterday. .

Still going with my call: 3-5” snow Philly, then sleet accumulation, and a glaze at the end Immediate burbs 4-8”, then sleet and ZR My coworker last night asked me if we were getting a foot of snow in Philly Ralph, I feel like when we’re sleeting and raining all afternoon people are going to be complaining about the forecasts, but at least the warning is out there that is a major event in totality. Wonder if it’ll hit a nesis scale .

The 50/50 tpv shifted more and more NE as we get closer through the week .

For this range it’s solid .

18z GEFs great signal for next weekend, we take! .

The maps all over the news and nws are just wild to me. Listening to WIP on way to work people think we’re getting a foot of snow in the city. I don’t want to sound like a deb, because I am excited for the storm, but I personally think 4-6” then sleet for the city. I just feel like we’re going to hear “oh the wx forecasters blew it” all week. I just don’t see a path for Philly to get 8+. I hope I’m wrong lol. This event has reminded me of Dec 2020 and I’ll stick to that general snow axis. I said I liked that analog a week ago and now it’s top 5 in analog matches .

The euro is more aggressive with the end of week front, cold press etc. hopefully the spacing improves .

The pattern is almost repeating itself. Check out hour 0 on the cmc vs 120 hours. It’s pretty much same thing, Stj energy undercutting ridge and elongated tpv potentially phasing with it .

Tail end of the tpv phasing with the southern energy again this run it seems. .

Woof .

00z geps had a big time signal for the Feb 1-3 period 6z AiGFS has a MECS 6z GFS elongated TPV, phasing Fun times ahead hopefully .

Euro doesn’t look far off at the end of the run, maybe a late development, but it’s close .

Need the ridge out west to hold as long as possible. .

Bias into play. It keeps the CCB snows over PA when other models have it up near Canada lol. I’m not going to say it’s “impossible”, but it’s likely wrong of course and will gradually correct itself For Philly I’m going 4-7” then sleet. I know I’m on the low end, but I’m just going off how these types of events generally play out here. .

GFS about to go off with the next weeks wave. It’s crazy, this shortwave actually originates from the front that’s clearing next 1-2 days. It rotates back around the TPV and is forced back south because of the block. Wild .