Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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You live down there? I remember tracking from afar and just seeing the euro cave to them close in, but I couldn’t confirm that
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They’re not even worth discussing. However, the fact that one NBM member is a huge hit gives me a clue we MIGHT see the 12z Nam go crazy
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NAM uses NMB physics per met on our discord, wonder if see a 12z NAMMING with how that one member looks
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Weenie post warning 9z srefs just beefed tf up.
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Euro Ai and icon are good middle ground models. Makes sense to me. Correct me if I’m wrong, the nc storm, under 3 days didn’t the gfs/nam combo beat the euro for snow down there?
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Never easy. I can’t believe we’re going into 12z on Friday with this much disagreement.
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6z Ukie big time improvement as well
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6z Ukie big time improvement as well
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Seeing the icon/nam/rgem have a cleaner phase at 6z is extremely encouraging for sure
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This is truly unbelievable
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Differences obvious. Gfs connects these waves as one smoothed out shortwave, nam doesn’t and the trailer one ends up almost acting as a kicker.
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18z euro just caved to the gfs over the Dakotas. Idk if it’ll lead to a hit but that’s wild to me
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That rounding of the shortwave is what I noticed the gfs doing at 6z pretty much every other model doesn’t have that, hrrr on board though!
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It takes time for it to flush out bad initialization data because i believe new runs use its 6hr forecast from the previous run. We had this same thing happen last year or the year before when the gfs was showing a blizzard under 96 hours and every other model was a miss. It’ll make a cave by 18 or 00z. At least it’s entertaining though! This has been the winter of what ifs and close calls. Such a tease.
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2010, 16 years ago Gfs did the same exact thing last year and/or the year before last with an event inside 84 hours. Just trying to save you the heartache of a let down when it eventually does. If the euro comes in and looks anything like the gfs I’ll post a video of myself streaking down broad steet lol.
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I do think parts of S DE-S NJ can still get into the ccb but the gfs solution is a joke imo. Entertaining, but a joke
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Yes, it’s a crap model, it takes a few cycles for it to crap put bad initialization data. The profession would be easier if the gfs didn’t go out beyond 3 days. Or even existed at all.
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We are seeing the same thing. In our hearts we know where it’s headed today lol. The IVT wouldn’t work for the city, NW it could, closer you are to the city though more BL temp issues
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Euro runs the southern pva out too far SE early on even though the N shortwave looks 10x better. GFS on an island is never a good place to be.
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18z euro a huge positive step towards gfs/cmc. I just hope it’s not an off run hiccup. If we build off it at 00z we’re in the game.
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The euro op was really close to a significant event for all of us and it was a lot flatter vs 6z rgem/ukie. Just as I had a bad feeling about 00z runs, I have a sneaking suspicion we’re about to have a fun 12z suite
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That’s how I felt after waking up, but looking at 6z data I wouldn’t be shocked if we see some pretty good improvements at 12z runs. Not going to see a 3’ event like yesterday’s cmc but a SECS is on the table especially in DE and S NJ
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Here was 6z rgem changes, and it’s exactly the type of changes to root for going forward. Lead wave is out of the way faster and you see the height changes react.
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Welp, a wrapped up bomb is probably out the window. Excellent job by the euro OP to never give in. On the other hand, there is still room to get a respectable event out of this, especially closer to the coast you get. The 6z rgem sharpened the trough a lot vs 00z. Nice improvements on 6z euro and Ai. Gotta make some baby steps. I really want to see more improvements on today’s runs.
