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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    After whatever happens next week I think we’re shutout until around mid month, 15th-end of the month should open back up opportunities. At least that’s how it’s looking currently.
  2. Heisy
    Yea same, I’ve been watching the radar all day/night out there. Someone def hit 20” I’d be very surprised if not
  3. Heisy
    I hope, I’m a little worried about ridge bridge of death right before mid month. Can see it on the AiGFS and some other models. We’ve been able to avoid it so far so hopefully that continues. Too far out to know yet of course. I agree we’ll have multiple chances rest of year regardless though. It’s on the Euro OP too ugh
  4. Heisy
    It seems the PV split is happening, Smarch? Others understand this stuff more than I do
  5. Heisy
    Differences between that and the 12km are nuts. Probably have to take a blend of other guidance for a forecast down there.
  6. Heisy
    The Ai models shouldn’t really be used for QPF for this reason. H5? Different story.
  7. Heisy
    I know verbatim the gfs didn’t work out, but it did trend like the Ai, slowing down the wave and shifting ridge W. If this thing is going to come up the coast that’s a good way to start so I’ll take it as a positive overall.
  8. Heisy
    I put more stock into the GFS Ai vs the OP so this gives me a little hope. Been saying since yesterday this is a pretty simple setup. Could all go to crap, but I feel pretty confident with this. 18z gfs backed up the western ridge, I bet it shows a strong event
  9. Heisy
    Trough slowed down on the OP. Could see improvements on it as well. The Ai showed a stronger system because it was slower and this allowed time for that pesky tpv to clear out
  10. Heisy
    18z gfs ai, this is almost the perfect mid Atlantic track
  11. Heisy
    It’s the icon so it doesn’t mean a whole lot, but this run would have been pretty nice for mid Atlantic. Confluence relaxed. Let’s start happy hours off right
  12. Heisy
    Down the line western trough/-PNA showing up, if we hold the blocking and run that energy into the cold that’s built up I could see some major mid month storm like we saw with the last event. Hopefully we can avoid any ridge bridging in the east
  13. Heisy
    Sorry, trust me I’m just as annoyed. Pattern is synoptically really good, we just gotta get a little luck already.
  14. Heisy
    Didn’t check to see if it’s been talked about, but this little upper level low is disrupting the flow, today’s model runs trended farther S with this piece and the actual potential event as well
  15. Heisy
    Heh yea, but I would say that this event is a lot less complicated than others.
  16. Heisy
    We need the ridge position out west to trend farther W. Its current position isn’t giving the shortwave room for amplification.
  17. Heisy
    I thought the 00z euro looked better at H5 than it actually produced at the surface.
  18. Heisy
    Yeah Ai has had it multiple runs, however, last night it was farther NW. type of system where I’m okay with it being farther SE currently
  19. Heisy
    It’s a really good setup, 1/20/2005 was number 1 analog this morning. Makes sense, clipper redeveloper. More confidence for 95 N&W for this type of setup, but we’ll see how the shortwave evolves as we get closer
  20. Heisy
    Really not bad at all, curious what 18z euro/ai do this run
  21. Heisy
    If that shortwave was more consolidated that would have been more AiGFS like. Not bad this range
  22. Heisy
  23. Heisy
    #1 analog is 2005 event, the storm that happened before eagles beat falcons to get to superbowl
  24. Heisy
    I think that was a different year here is 2005 snow map
  25. Heisy
    Heh Feb 3-5 1995 in the top 5 day 6-10 analogs. We’ll see how it evolves, but it’s the next threat for sure Guess what #1 day 6-10 analog is? 1/22/2005
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