Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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The pac giving the models problems. Play gfs/icon vs cmc H5 and you can sort of see why they’re doing what they’re doing. I don’t like that the 6z euro is camp cmc, but hopefully that changes here soon
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Here is ukie, Gotta see temps first not sure where it goes from there. CMC has completely different spacing vs icon/gfs/ukie. Would like to see the euro/ai be in the good camp. PAC is likely to give models some issues next 2 days or so until the progression is settled on
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Hard to get excited until we see the cmc and euro come on board. Wave spacing coming off the pac is the reason we’re seeing large differences in the models. Let’s see what rest of 12z shows
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Icon will be a massive hit this run
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Didn’t see it posted, but 18z euro op looked potent end of run, strong main shortwave, there was a ULL NW of Maine about to swing SE and nice compressed flow ahead of our shortwave
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Woof. Strong shortwave, and confluence was setup nicely with that ULL Nw of Maine rolling SE. that would have been a pretty big hit imo
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Euro Ai, OP and EPS now on board for 24th event heh End of Ukie looked decent, gfs and cmc were getting there
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Right there with ya. Second big “what if” event of the year. The ensemble members/few OP runs that dove that N/S farther W produced MECSs. Sucks knowing how close we were to something big.
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24th range still has an outside chance. It’s the next time frame that could produce snow. Couple shortwaves track east from the western trough, knocking down the ridge some. If we can time the last of the bunch well it could work out. 6z euro Ai gave us a modest event.
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Whatever happens tomorrow night, enjoy it, LR looking kind of toasted at the moment. Alaskan pig
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This is what’s possible if the shortwave comes in sharper and farther S, such an interesting event, could go all wrong or be a big positive bust
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Philly is literally right on the edge R/S line
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Wow
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Someone might get NAMed here depending on temps
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We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before
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One of the weirdest run ups to a storm in a long time
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Last time I saw it used was 2020 storm and it did well. Obviously we’re not getting 20” unless this is a jan25 2000 bust This has been one of the more interesting storms I’ve tracked. The high end ensemble members kind of make me depressed because it just shows what a full phase could have done
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GFS on board now!
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18z icon looks close to its 6z run so far
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I’m not sold on Ai solution. Something like the Euro OP makes more sense to me. Still, weird to see changes this much at 72 hours, goes to show you how fragile this phase is
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…and we’re back to where we were yesterday. Ha
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February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
Heisy replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
This map is close to a bonafide “woof” I’ll really bark once we get it to day 7 lol -
It also has a nice CAD event around the 23-24th, which is a time period that’s starting to look fun
