Heisy

This map is close to a bonafide “woof” I’ll really bark once we get it to day 7 lol

It also has a nice CAD event around the 23-24th, which is a time period that’s starting to look fun

Not horrible, I actually though H5 looked better than 12z, but it was a slight step back with snow totals

18z euro Ai really close to a big dog here. As is still a good run with front end frozen. Solid confluence HP in the lead up This time range is starting to get interesting

18z gfs actually got some light snow to our area. My gut tells me we’ll see the 18z euro Ai take a step back, but man if it gets even better it’ll be get your popcorn ready time. 18z gfs with a 2016-like MECS day 10-11. Winter isn’t over yet

Gets .3+ to us, but too warm for city ha Still, nice nod towards the AI

18z icon showing better alignment with N/S

another tidbit, the 12z euro Ai result is the same thing the Ai ensemble mean and eps have been showing last two runs

Exactly, just one small timing change with that N/S piece resulted in this, but having literally 0 other guidance showing this is a weird place to be considering how good the Ai is like you said

Euro gets precip to us at least but it missed the phase

Just a small change with the northern stream timing and angle was able to just get some lift up to our region. Probably another mirage, who knows

All the 12z guidance total whiff and then the euro Ai does this, wth is going on with this event, so weird lol

Got pumped faked by the euro, the new Andre miller of the weather models. Next 2 weeks look toasted. Hibernation mode for me.

End of the 12z rgem vs 6z euro. Note how the euro has the northern stream more angled to drop in and phase. No other model is really showing this. The rgem has a stronger southern vort but we really need the N/S to help this thing. Tough event for models, euro hasn’t been consistent hard to trust it

See post above. Euro h5 track and phase is good, but the confluence pattern trended poorly unfortunately

6z euro is warmer because the bowling ball is not in 50/50 esque location anymore. Look at it vs cmc for example. EPS also trended that way, more of a setup for NW now since confluence pattern isn’t ideal anymore (if it’s right)

I did a little comparison on all the models this morning. All the models have that bowing ball in a similar location day 3, but there’s a second shortwave that dives underneath it. Camp GFS, GFS Ai, Euro Ai have the bowing ball not reacting to that shortwave and it just meanders over SE Canada and blocks any attempt at our storm to come up the coast. Camp euro, cmc, Ukie phase that shortwave with the bowling ball and kick it east into our 50/50 location This interaction plays a big role on whether our storm can come up the coast or not. There’s other factors, but this is key imo

Technically this is an Archaumbault event with the NAO change. It argues for a stronger/farther N solution vs the Ai models. Euro Ai gives me the most pause for concern of course, but we’re still at range where we could maybe see some significant changes There’s also a world where the Ukie/cmc solutions are possible, similar 6z euro track but with the initial wave tracking farther N 00z Ukie was a MECS for interior to SNE 00z cmc parallel was like the Ukie but also got Philly in the game. Lots to parse. The pieces are there. We have 50/50, but the ULL helping reinforce the cold is a bowling ball and models are all over the place with it. Strong shortwave coming out of the pac, and finally x-factor to me is any northern stream piece that potentially tries to phase in last second. 6z eps comparison vs 00z, you can see that phase trying to happen with the energy over the lakes

Yea and there was more to come. There is this little ULL over SE Canada that is giving the models fits. Every model run keeps placing it in different locations every run. There is also now the question of a late phase. It would be extremely impactful if models go that way. Euro Ai being so far SE is a pause for concern still, and the OP is an outlier until we see the EPS, but not out of the ballgame yet

Interesting, last night cmc parallel is very close to this mornings 6z euro run. They attempt a late phase of the northern stream. It’s not a clean phase but enough to pull in moisture to the region

6z Euro is a good hit for you guys It trended towards the cmc idea of that northern stream maybe diving SE last second to phase with it. More was falling after this panel. It also has that little ULL in a perfect 50/50 spot

At least one positive, the Ai has the clipper for the 20th that the 12z euro had. Then again, this point of the season it’s big dog or nothing for me lol

18z euro OP would have went the way of the Ai, there’s no northern stream influence to help scoop it N. Without that it’s just a shortwave meandering underneath the ridge and it’ll glide ESE like the Ai models now showing.

CMC looks interesting, confluence parked over Ne and wave looks healthy