Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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5.5 Feasterville-Trevose .
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Deathband forming in Jersey, rock on .
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I just measured im nearing 4” surprisingly on cold surfaces. This band is delivering. Probably end up with 5+ .
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Haven’t looked at in the short term, but it was basically the first model to have this event, so gotta give it credit there. This band is pretty sweet .
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I had about 2” in Feasterville-trevose around 5am. My guess is we end up right around 4”, puking right now .
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From the 00z hrrr, that area I posted above is one of the max spots, and then towards coastal NJ which will have some coastal influence. Maybe 8 is too generous, but I think someone in those areas will see 6+ for sure. Good storm for many though. .
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This area here where the precip is sprouting is likely to see 6-8”, one of the jackpot zones imo .
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Someone in Lancaster or Berks C will hit 7-8” I bet. Philly around 4-5” my last call .
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At work, anyone got the 18z euro? .
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Good bump on 6z euro and EPS. I’d set the over under for Philly at 3” .
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It’s a shame the pattern isn’t less* progressive because that shortwave is really mean. Really close to a large event for coastal sections. The euro 12/00z runs are flopping with its 6/18z runs. I imagine it’ll probably settle into something over next 24 -36 hours .
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Gfs completely flipped towards 6z euro Ai solution at h5. Think this is legit. Problem is the track could be too far N. Need to see it dig as far S as possible and see ridge keep improving .
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Agreed, but at least it made a nice shift to the ai solution. .
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6z euro Ai strengthens a wave at day 6. The 6z euro OP and EPS trended towards digging that same wave farther S. Can also see the better ridge position out west on 6z EPS Something to keep an eye on .
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12z euro has a few N/S shortwaves that produce or come close to producing. .
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Yea as one person our Philly board said, there’s a -NAO there, but nothing is locking the 50/50 in place. There’s been some OP runs here and there showing ways to score in this pattern. I wouldn’t expect a big dog or anything though. .
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6th event kind of fell off the ledge last night. I dont think the pattern looks bad from 6-12th or so. However, to me it seems like a very Northern Stream dominant pattern, so keep an eye on one of those clipper type waves with enough space to redevelop or at least be strong enough itself to give us some flakes during that time period. Would need a little support from the PNA and too to help amplify any of those waves that flow across the NS. .
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Here is today’s 12z gfs from 45 and 102 hours. Looks very similar, pattern repeating itself. It is decent just gotta take advantage of one of these waves. Cold source nearby. Also, this might produce… .
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I thought about it, the last one I came up for was the 22 blizzard I was near Brockton. .
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If I had the time and energy these days I’d def start planning a chase up to your neck of the woods. .
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The one posted is the Ai ensemble mean .
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Icon might hop on board here .
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Yea it matches fairly well with 6z gfs. Long way to go, but a nice step. .
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This could get interesting, enough energy rounding the base, more than the GFS, possibly we’ll see…. .
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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
Heisy replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I’m actually seeing a bit of a signal for around the 30th, especially for interior. Way out in time, but a bunch of EPS members had it. 18z OP GFS has a front clearing around the 28th with HP building behind and energy organizing down S. Likely too early in the Ridge beat down progression for the coastal plain, but I’d keep an eye out on this time period for interior/W NY region .
