Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
Heisy replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
12km Nam shouldn’t be used outside 12-18 hours, 3km more reasonable . -
Ai has been showing that wave a few runs now, but it’s been too warm. Obviously well out in time though .
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-Epo showing up Idk if this gets it done in March, but maybe if you ride that pattern out a few days it gets better .
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I bet if you check the H5 from those runs it was way off (GFS)
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
Heisy replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
My cousin lives at Virginia Beach, any weenies on here from there? Thought about taking a drive but idk if I have time . -
Euro Ai keeps popping a -EPO around day 15, A quality met. On our discord pointed out the best analogs for this year favor week 1-2 March. Snow chances the next 10-14 days look very low, and yeah maybe we are done, but we’ll see what happens .
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To be fair euro basically jumped ship right when the event got under 108 hours out or so. 96 hours has been the time frame for lock down mode this year. That’s 4 days, not bad. For weenies in E NC and Virginia Beach I’d be worried about an even more SE trend over next couple days. One of the worst winters of my 38 years on earth. I’d rather a 2001-02 winter than this crap where we get decent patterns that fail. .
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Wow yea I see the similarities there to this one .
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If 18z euro is close Virginia Beach has a run to break their all time snowfall record. Just looked it up it’s around 18” I think. .
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My cousin lives at Virginia Beach, maybe I’ll take a drive lol .
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It’s really just coming into the fold with pretty much every piece of guidance outside the NAM. Was probably to be expected .
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Euro will be tick SE .
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It’s pretty crazy how fast high latitude blocking just breaks down over the next few days .
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Of course the 18z gfs is doing this, but we have no cold air lol .
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If models only went out to 120 hours and beyond that we only used ensembles your opinion would be a lot different .
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I think the kicker and lack of ridge out west hurts any chance for amplification. I agree you look at the map you posted and you’d think a big event was forming, but it just stays neutral and rides E. Frustrating .
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Models aren’t the issue, it’s people trusting OP models outside 120 hours. Yesterday got us under that mark and boom they all started converging last night. They still identified the threat 200+ hours out. .
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Models generally get into somewhat lock down mode once they get under the magic 120 hours number. Yes we’ll still see ticks either way, but not overhauls. Yesterday was that magic time frame and was why I was so nervous before 12z runs. Oh well. We can still muster .4-.6 of high ratio stuff (more for jersey). .
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CMC is a miss, I’m out for the year, cya in 8 months unless some miracle happens mid march .
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One thing this storm threat taught us, the euro Ai model is fucking legit. As pissed as I am to say that. Really bad winter up here in Philly, maybe even top 10. Yea we had some events but we were teased with good patterns that couldn’t produce and close calls. Can’t control it, move on. .
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In 1 day we went from this to that lol .
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Go back to older runs which were really tucked and see what it did with that second wave .
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The kicker is mucking it up more than people think. Yea the confluence is stronger on newer euro runs and that’s probably mainly why it’s trended SE, but that kicker doesn’t allow the shortwave to really have time to develop down S. One good thing there is maybe that shortwave isn’t being sampled perfectly yet since it’s farther out in time. I’ve been riding the Ai all winter, it’s been lock steady outside those 2-3 runs where it was really OTS .
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Painful because we saw what could have been had everything gone right. Maybe the confluence relaxes next model suite. We need a desperate return at 00/6z. Look we could still score a 4-8” event with temps in the upper teens and low 20s, but that’s boring to me especially if someone is getting 1-2’ and it’s not me haha .
