Heisy

Trough slowed down on the OP. Could see improvements on it as well. The Ai showed a stronger system because it was slower and this allowed time for that pesky tpv to clear out

18z gfs ai, this is almost the perfect mid Atlantic track

It’s the icon so it doesn’t mean a whole lot, but this run would have been pretty nice for mid Atlantic. Confluence relaxed. Let’s start happy hours off right

Down the line western trough/-PNA showing up, if we hold the blocking and run that energy into the cold that’s built up I could see some major mid month storm like we saw with the last event. Hopefully we can avoid any ridge bridging in the east

Sorry, trust me I’m just as annoyed. Pattern is synoptically really good, we just gotta get a little luck already.

Didn’t check to see if it’s been talked about, but this little upper level low is disrupting the flow, today’s model runs trended farther S with this piece and the actual potential event as well

Heh yea, but I would say that this event is a lot less complicated than others.

We need the ridge position out west to trend farther W. Its current position isn’t giving the shortwave room for amplification.

I thought the 00z euro looked better at H5 than it actually produced at the surface.

Yeah Ai has had it multiple runs, however, last night it was farther NW. type of system where I’m okay with it being farther SE currently

It’s a really good setup, 1/20/2005 was number 1 analog this morning. Makes sense, clipper redeveloper. More confidence for 95 N&W for this type of setup, but we’ll see how the shortwave evolves as we get closer

Really not bad at all, curious what 18z euro/ai do this run

If that shortwave was more consolidated that would have been more AiGFS like. Not bad this range

#1 analog is 2005 event, the storm that happened before eagles beat falcons to get to superbowl

I think that was a different year here is 2005 snow map

Heh Feb 3-5 1995 in the top 5 day 6-10 analogs. We’ll see how it evolves, but it’s the next threat for sure Guess what #1 day 6-10 analog is? 1/22/2005

Thought the look on the models reminded me of Feb 3-4 1995, and what do you know, it’s on the top 5 day 6-10 analogs. I’m a sicko like that haha

With the ridge out west and confluence laid over SE Canada the main shortwave has no choice but to slowly dig

Respectfully disagree, the Feb 6th period is gaining a lot of traction over night. Euro Ai, ensemble, etc etc, shortwave gets trapped between ridge out west and some leftover confluence. Reminds me of Feb 4-5 95 for some reason

100%, that’s the next threat, end of euro op actually looked interesting. Reel it in Lucy

When is the met community as a whole going to care more about the Euro Ai vs the OP. This next event is another case study for it. Euro has been bouncing around run after run. It’s finally starting to get consistent, meanwhile euro AI has basically locked in as it usually does in this range outside minor ticks. It’s verifying better at H5, only caveat is its resolution gives it issues with QPF so you have to factor it in. Anyways, euro Ai has a nor’easter for the 6th The 00z OP run had snow down into The southern mid Atlantic for this one. End of 6z Op looks like it was about to brew something up. This one could have BL temp issues, need to get the low out of the lakes, but we’ll see…

Almost 18 members get us to 5-6”

Annoying off run Euro/eps runs keeping us alive

Fujiwhara for the win