Heisy

AiGFS just missed the storm of the century Bombs it out to 960s in the Atlantic .

How much sleet did we get in the 2007 storm. This has to be up there in one of the most we’ve gotten in a while right? .

I’ve been mentioning 12/20 for 4 days now over on our discord. It’s in the top 5 of analogs as of yesterday. .

Still going with my call: 3-5” snow Philly, then sleet accumulation, and a glaze at the end Immediate burbs 4-8”, then sleet and ZR My coworker last night asked me if we were getting a foot of snow in Philly Ralph, I feel like when we’re sleeting and raining all afternoon people are going to be complaining about the forecasts, but at least the warning is out there that is a major event in totality. Wonder if it’ll hit a nesis scale .

The 50/50 tpv shifted more and more NE as we get closer through the week .

For this range it’s solid .

18z GEFs great signal for next weekend, we take! .

The maps all over the news and nws are just wild to me. Listening to WIP on way to work people think we’re getting a foot of snow in the city. I don’t want to sound like a deb, because I am excited for the storm, but I personally think 4-6” then sleet for the city. I just feel like we’re going to hear “oh the wx forecasters blew it” all week. I just don’t see a path for Philly to get 8+. I hope I’m wrong lol. This event has reminded me of Dec 2020 and I’ll stick to that general snow axis. I said I liked that analog a week ago and now it’s top 5 in analog matches .

The euro is more aggressive with the end of week front, cold press etc. hopefully the spacing improves .

The pattern is almost repeating itself. Check out hour 0 on the cmc vs 120 hours. It’s pretty much same thing, Stj energy undercutting ridge and elongated tpv potentially phasing with it .

Tail end of the tpv phasing with the southern energy again this run it seems. .

Woof .

00z geps had a big time signal for the Feb 1-3 period 6z AiGFS has a MECS 6z GFS elongated TPV, phasing Fun times ahead hopefully .

Euro doesn’t look far off at the end of the run, maybe a late development, but it’s close .

Need the ridge out west to hold as long as possible. .

Bias into play. It keeps the CCB snows over PA when other models have it up near Canada lol. I’m not going to say it’s “impossible”, but it’s likely wrong of course and will gradually correct itself For Philly I’m going 4-7” then sleet. I know I’m on the low end, but I’m just going off how these types of events generally play out here. .

GFS about to go off with the next weeks wave. It’s crazy, this shortwave actually originates from the front that’s clearing next 1-2 days. It rotates back around the TPV and is forced back south because of the block. Wild .

The pattern is very similar to this week. We just have to see if the northern stream can elongate after the ULL day 6-7 occurs. And then once again if any pac energy can escape under the ridge. .

Better in, better out. More accurate current obs data into the wx models should create more accurate forecasting .

The CMC parallel is going to replace the cmc soon. I’ve been looking at it for this upcoming Sunday event. It has been absolutely consistent in showing the phase and the primary running farther N than every other model for days now. Last night’s 00z run blew up the 1/30 wave. End of 6z euro had more sagging to the back side of the ULL. We’ll see if it’s able to dive far enough S to develop a strong coastal. .

Almost every OP model has the same general look for the 31st-1st as our block retrogrades south. .

FWIW the cmc parallel which will be replacing the cmc eventually has been showing a full phase run after run. The 18z euro looks almost spot on to its 12z run. Just throwing that out there .

Well at least when it does trend N they’ll get a crippling ice storm so he’s not wrong lol .

VA in a sweet spot because they’re going to cash in on the WAA goods one way or another it seems. The phase adds risk but also rewards for us. With the phase it’s been slowed a day so still 6+ days out we still have a long way to go .

Yes the phase adds a new layer of caution and risk. VA is in a good spot because they’ll cash in on the WAA goods one way or the other it seems I’m likely just staying here. If Philly gets completely screwed then this was likely either well over phased or compressed and it wasn’t historic for anyone. I can see a word where the NW burbs end up being the place to go if we see a pd2 type progression .