Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Fujiwhara for the win
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It seems the last 48 hours the off run euro runs are west of the 12/00z. Not really sure why, but it’s been consistent like that
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If the PNA ridge and tpv is like 150/200 miles west before it starts diving S this would have been 2016, 96 etc. absolutely brutal. Ain’t gonna lie though Sunday night and the 6z euro Ai/OP runs were some of the best in range fantasy runs in a while. Was fun for about 12 hours. We’ll have another threat in February. In fact I spoke to HM personally he’s thinking 2-3 more legit threats before end of year
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Such a tight gradient on all the eps members etc because of how wound up the system is. I feel like we’d need a pretty large shift for this range to get the city in the goods, but I still think we can muster few inches if we get lucky
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https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta89-14.pdf
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18z GFS vs 18z euro AI. Really close honestly Gfs probably begins negatively tilting slightly earlier
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The GFS uses some of its initialization data from the prior runs 6hr forecast. When I saw the 6z gfs I had a feeling 12z run would do what it did. It takes a few cycles to purge itself. I feel like the cmc ensemble mean is a very realistic outcome, but eps is highly concerning. Anyway, going forward the next time period to keep an eye on is the 5th which grew some legs on the Ai & some other ensemble means today.
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Thing is the northern stream is sitting in S Canada right now. It isn’t like this is energy coming off the PAC and poorly sampled. Not saying it can’t happen, but I don’t expect any type of giant shifts personally. I hope I’m wrong though.
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So absolutely frustrating that literally all we needed was that TPV to stretch slightly farther W and we probably see a blizzard from VA to SNE. Still, rooting on folks in SE
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Just this small amount of tilt changes everything. This is a hair pulling event because the potential is off the charts and just these small factors are fighting against it
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
Heisy replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Hey just an outsider (Philly) visiting,, just curious, I see you state it is bullish for DC-Boston but the snow map posted seemed generally light. Hopefully we all cash in. I don’t know anything about this new model heh. -
Here is an h5 comparison of the 18z euro vs 6z to show what’s changed in 12 hours. In the grand scheme of things not a whole lot, but in an explosive redeveloping system like this every small change matters. I think one of the biggest changes is the 50/50 positioning.
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That 966 one looks fun .
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Yea that wasn’t going to escape .
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Took me a while this morning, my side of street is where all the snow goes. Shoveled when the snow changed to sleet, this morning when I woke up I had like 2-4” on my sidewalk of just crust I could walk across without sinking in .
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Ji is slacking .
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This model was really good last week, it had the fulll tpv phase in the medium long range when we were still in the suppression mode. .
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Yeah when the Ukie & Ai came out I had a feeling this would happen. Not throwing in the towel yet, if that bowling ball is farther N in latitude it still would work. The “what could have beens” are the hardest part of this hobby lol. Just a small change turned the euro from the Blizzard of 26 to OTS .
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I’m 40 but I still get a lump in my stomach before these runs lol .
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I wouldn’t definitively say that, there are eps members that tuck this into the Delmarva. Even into C PA. Not saying it’s likely, but not impossible. I guess you can say that for any event though lol .
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I can’t believe this might happen lol .
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CMC is the important run today, it’s been doing very well .
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We take at this range absolutely .
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100% agree, for the city more worried of a tucked solution vs a miss. We shall see! Exciting times .
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That’s a good analog, what the euro is showing is honestly a once in a lifetime potential event. I’m that serious lol. Things usually screw us so I’m not going all in yet obviously, but that euro run was a blizzard for whoever stayed in ccb for duration. Blizzard of 26 literally. .
