Heisy

Tpv positioning takes big dog out of play if that’s legit, but could def get a light event if you get the right balance of press from the front. It digs too much with the tpv sitting to our N than it’s a rain event, too much and it’s suppressed. Need a proper balance. Wish I had the $ to head to Midwest for these next few events, ya wanna go Ralph? I’ll buy the drinks .

Hey at least one thing is pretty certain, it’s gonna get damn cold for a few days after that front clears .

GEPS has a signal for around the 20th as well .

Need a 50/50 or this is the result, migrating tpv and ni 50/50, SE ridge flexes. .

Euro looks great but like you said a minor shift W with TPV and we lose the cold. Comes down to this… .

Yes agreed. I mentioned in my other post we need to avoid the retrograde or start everything farther E. We find ways to fail these days though so while it’s definitely our next threat I’m sure we’ll find a way to screw jt up. .

Still gonna be N this run, has flatter heights, but trough a bit too far W. TPV initially looked better but still migrating. Bump everything a little E and it’ll work, long way to go Said before the setup reminds me of Feb 2-3 96’ .

6z gfs has better tpv positioning vs 00z, see if it can hold. This is really close to classic… .

Ah yes, I had a good feeling we’d wake up with one weenie run after seeing the 18z EPS. We need to keep the TPV here in SE Canada there, if it migrates W we lose the cold and heights will pump N in the Southeast As is it’s almost perfect, snows in the 20s. Perfect overrunning event long way to go lol .

Giddy up .

The storm we’re potentially tracking for around the 17th is crashing onshore around Oregon at 144 hours. It dives under the trough and then phases with it. The 18z EPS made a really good trend East with the trough. .

Trough maybe a touch too far west to hold the cold we’ll see .

Big one could be forming on the GFS with the 16-18th wave .

Plenty of members on EPS like the 16-18th time frame vs last night. See this time frame here? GFS is farther E with that NW lobe near Montana. If we see the euro trend that way it’ll lead to a weaker wave and it won’t be a cutter. This run phased too much energy and it pumped the ridge up ahead. This is what I’ve been pointing out the last 24 hours. Even with the massive cut there was some front end snow on OP because we actually have antecedent cold. There’s a path to victory here if we get a little lucky. Just for fun to prove my point, the 12z control was a touch farther E with the whole trough and brought more energy E and it lead to this. GFS is on the weak side but it had a solid snowstorm. We find the sweet spot we have a solid threat. .

Much much better than last nights run… .

Euro and GFS still differ greatly with handling that NW energy at 120, gfs phases it and pumps ride behind it & euro is gonna leave it behind and dump in W again it seems. Prefer GFS scenario… .

I agree. Sometimes my ADHD makes it tough for me to explain things. Mind races a million mph lol Having a tough time getting my point across. Guess what I mean is there was a reason last nights 00z eps had such a paltry snow mean. It did get the lower heights to where we want them eventually, but there weren’t any good snow opportunities because of the western ridge and trough dump out west vs the GEFS/GFS camp that’s it. That’s all. Lol. .

I absolutely don’t man. While it wasn’t terrible I don’t agree that last nights 00 EPS was a great run if you read between the lines and see what was actually going on. It got the lower heights to our region but with 2 cutters 13th-16th which also left us in probably a not so snow friendly pattern afterwards. You absolutely can and should use the OPs in comparison with the ensembles to get an idea of what the smoothed out height lines on the ensembles mean. Let’s compare the 00z eps vs the OP at 186 hours.. They both handle the 13th wave pretty similarly, it’s parked over SE Canada at 186 hours. Look at the EPS vs OP at this point out west. There’s a little battle going on it seems on the EPS between some OP like members and some that move the western trough a bit farther E. You dump too much energy out west and this ridge here will be stronger obviously You bring it eastward you get a more GFS like solution which gives us a chance at something around 16-17th. Here is last nights EPS vs 6z GEFS. Spot the difference? Finally EPS developed a ridge but it’s a bit too far E, this looks like a cold/dry/suppression time period before pattern ends if this were to be right. Good news there’s plenty of time for the EPS to evolve. TL/DR I like the GEFS a lot better for us vs last night’s EPS .

End of 6z EPS has that N western conus lobe farther E vs 00z, ridge slightly farther E so that’s a step in positive direction. We gotta keep this crap from dumping out west as much as possible .

And you can see where that leads us down the line with the GFS phased scenario vs unphased. Euro just dumps the N/S out west which is a killer for us as usual .

My opinion, but we We want the GFS to be right on the ridge positioning/phasing the two shortwaves here… This progresses the trough east and creates the opportunities that the GFS shows down the line. Euro/cmc and even eps don’t do this at the moment. At least last night they didn’t. .

I am. If you follow the EPS heights, precip maps, and snow mean tonight it’s generally showing cutter on the 10th, cutter on the 13th, cutter 16-17th, then it dries out at the end of the run. Yea the heights look good but sometimes you have to see through the mean and look at what’s really going on. Where’s the snow on the eps? It’s not there because it’s showing 3 cutters and then cold and dry. I’m not saying it’s right, just showing what I’m seeing… and we have plenty of time for it to change 10th cutter 13th cutter 16th cutter Beyond that it’s cold but the precip/snow mean are paltry. Southern stream dries out and the brief PNA ridge gets pushed into central Conus for what looks like an end of pattern warm up. I know I’ll get bashed for this post, but whatever. Just my opinion on why the snow mean was so low tonight. Hopefully over next few days we see improved threats pop up in the 15th-22nd time frame. .

If tonight’s runs are correct we wait until 18-19th and beyond for any threats for when the lower heights finally push far enough E. Till then the WAR ridge is too strong because of the -PNA. Annoying, but maybe we get lucky with an Archambault event once block has retrograded. If we go cutter, cutter, cutter then cold and dry before warming up then I’ll just delete my wxbell subscription and cliff dive .

February 2-3 1996 .

Yea that storm was a rounded wave overrunning event as well. It was bitterly cold and snowed In the low 20s just like the 18z gfs. I’m sure the GFS will be different in 6 hours but we can dream .