Heisy

You got a guest room if this verifies?! lol sheeeesh .

Long way to go, but right now I’d feel really good if I’m a weenie in NC, S half of VA. N SC 18z Euro Ai is a huge hit fyi .

18z gfs vs 12z euro Ai, look at the difference In confluence strength. .

AiGFS still a huge hit, difference between it and the OP continues to be the STJ energy that crashes on shore around day 4. One thing I’d say is the 18z AiGFS was a little slower with it and it almost left it behind. There also looks to be some N stream energy diving S around 5-6. As usual it all comes down to luck and timing of these two waves. The opportunity is there. This event def favors S mid Atlantic more imo just because they can get a hit even if most of the STJ energy gets left behind Over the next few suites I hope we see a gradual N idea. .

The big thing is getting that STJ energy to eject E 12z ai made a huge progression change in doing that. The prior 6z run buried it under the ridge If it really does head east this is the best chance for a MECS in a decade. .

6z Ai puts all its eggs into the 28-29 range HECS setup .

I feel like current radar doesn’t match models, I have more snow and there’s more precip over Nj than was expected by almost every model that I can tell. Unless I’m wrong? .

Yeah, without wxbell you’re ahead, this might be too much ugh .

Woof woof .

If you extrapolate this pattern this is what I’ve been waiting for all year. Cold dome up top, with the STJ possible getting involved Gotta reup wxbell later ha .

I’d rather risk rain and get the STJ involved then continue with this NS garbage pattern we’re in lol. It’s a while out but we’d need the gfs to be right about the confluence & 50/50 this run because if not it’s just a cutter because of that SE ridge but like I said I’d rather risk something like this then continue wha we’re in .

Now this we take… .

The day 5-6 event is growing some legs there’s a couple decent members in there. Depends on the angle of the shortwave. Wouldn’t take much for this to get juicier .

If the Euro Ai doesn’t show a snowstorm under 144 hours, it ain’t happening. One of my new life rules. .

If the ULL closes off someone will get a moderate/decent event, really hard to pinpoint that, but models still not all on the same page with that even happening. Give it another 1-2 cycles. .

This is the piece of energy that the GFS is dropping into the trough. Euro isn’t that far off from the gfs with this shortwave. Just a small change in the location and speed of that wave changes everything. Obviously the angle of the kicker dropping in matters as well as the tpv in SE Canada. Just something to keep an eye on future runs .

Yea, usually in this scenarios where the GFS has some zonked out solution like 00z it makes steps back to reality. For it to do this 2 runs later is kind of interesting, but yeah, need euro or cmc to confirm reality lol .

GFS won’t quit with this solution eh. Man, can we please get the cmc or euro to show something at least a little bit similar lol. One time boys/girls! .

This setup ends up being a cutter because the 50/50 just zooms right out of there. Long way to go, but I’d find it par for the course with our luck the last 10 years. .

Probably the euro just overamping things at this range/it took too long to get its act together so we lose all the confluence by time it’s turning corner. All 3 OP models and their ensembles have something for this time frame so at least it’s track worthy. .

I know it cuts this run, but the PNA is doing its work for us. Both these waves have ton of potential. It would be nice to get a little lucky for once. .

12z ai is a miss for the first threat. 19th threat it has this general look which is woof worthy. Ends up being an interior event but at this range idc, that’s really close to being ideal. One threat a time though, fun/stressful times ahead ha .

Darn, early on it looked better than 00z with energy dropping in farther W. .

Man, that was a few ticks away from being a monster .

Back that shortwave west just a little bit off that GFS run and it redevelops and rides the coast. Close one .