Heisy

That's a mighty strong ULL on the long range EURO...

What's the last +12"+ December event in Philly? I feel a solid 4-8, 6-10 classic Dec 5 event this year

Can't believe we're back baby. Less than a month until Dec 1. Felt like it would never get here. Anyway, I feel a lot better going into Winters where everyone expects below average snow. It just seems like winters that are forecasted to be AN snow by the majority are always a let down. I have sneaky good vibes about this winter. No science to back it up, but I like the overall pattern at H5 right now. I think we have accumulating snow before the 10th. I'll bump this after the 00z NAM drops a foot plus in the city a month from now.

I have to renew my subscriptions, but does the 00z euro have any flakes from that day 9 event?

Not that it's worth talking about for obvious reasons but I meant the overall pattern. Of course heights are going to be higher in Nov than January or December. I just liked the block on the map. PNA ridge axis still too far west on that map, but it's close to the type of look we'd want come winter.

I'll take this look in a month or so

Nice, the warmer the forecast the colder the winter.

One of my favorite storms down here in Philly. 2000-01 was the winter I became a snow weenie (Wright-weather and TWC forums ftw!). I remember going to school in a complete down pour. Changed to snow around noon and we had 1-3” per hour snows for a few hours. Nothing better than other kids trapped on school busses while your mom picked you up early. Little did I know one of the greatest negative busts of all time would happen just a month later….

Today’s Long Range GFS kind of shows that look.

Link: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ It’s NJ focused so it might not have every event up your way, but from 93 on it’s a great resource. his site also includes radar images from those events

Famartin, Philly region met has a great resource. You can see every 95-96 storm here… here was Dec 20 95’ snowmap. He has H5 maps and everything

Welcome to Delaware Tornado-Valley

I thought this was a famous “surprise” snowstorm https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.inquirer.com/news/blizzard-presidents-day-philadelphia-washington-atlantic-city-20190218.html%3foutputType=amp Grew up in Philly, born 86, Blizzard of 83 is one I wish I got to experience first hand, any memories from that one?

NE Philly just had debris fall out of sky for a few minutes. Was like raining leafes lol. Must have been from the tornado in NJ

Classic, wth

My dad lives in Warminster near street and davisville. I think that tornado was just to the west though. Waiting to hear from him. Anyone from near there? those cells SW of city ramping up.

I might be wrong but looking at the track of the core it seems like he’ll miss the inner eye wall… Ida still hasn’t turned N yet.

NASA better contact the guys who set this camera up. This is crazy. So much more time left too, wonder if those homes in the background will withstand it

Is it still possible the recurve happens earlier than thought? that grand isle webcam is starting to look bad!

You can see the winds picking up on that Grand Isle webcam

Was only a matter of time imo. Let’s just hope for continued West wobbles

Gotta love that last wobble N. :/ This is wild.

Came to post the same, turning into a beast

Was just about to post this, but as an amateur was hesitant. Last few frames of IR look ominous to me

Looks like 12z Euro shifted Ida a tick or two East fwiw.